1 pt win Poole Harbour, 1.50 Newmarket (6/1 general)
With only Punchestown left to come over the jumps (not
discounting the 2 day Cheltenham meeting) many people will see the Craven at
the true start of the flat meeting and it’s hard not to think so with the
quality on show over the two days.
This also signals the return of that most fascinating of contests,
the maiden. Chock a block full of newcomers for whom market checks are
essential, along with some always promising types from last year, the have our
first maidens at the Rowley Mile tomorrow and Poole Harbour may be the one to
take the first race at HQ this season.
A second on debut at Newbury in one of the stronger maidens
run at the track last season – a race which has produced plenty of winners
since, not least Trumper Major who then went onto be a Group 2 winner – he was
sent off just 4-7 for another maiden at Ascot, but disappointed after making
most. It seems like that there was something physically wrong with him that day
and at 6/1 he seems too big to overturn the first and second favourites in
Quannas and Perhipery, both of whom hold strong form claims on their best form.
1 pt win Balty Boys, 3.00 Newmarket (6/1 Sportingbet)
This is one of the tricker races on the card, with cases
that can be made for a few on good evidence. The strongest of those is Samitar,
the Albany winner of last season who pushed Lyric Of Light to a head in the
Fillies’ Mile, and then won a big sales event last year on her final start. She’s
the best in the field and should be very hard to beat, but she drops back to
what’s likely to be a very quick 6 furlongs and at the prices preference is for
Balty Boys, who was behind Samitar last season here over 6 furlongs but was
tied up late in that race by her and Mehdi and then went onto finish fourth in
the Middle Park, having raced alone on the far side.
He needs to find a little bit of improvement but that’s factored
into a price of 6/1 with Sportingbet based on what’s seem as no more than a lbs
of difference between the two on official ratings, and with the Hills yard so
often starting quickly, he seems like a value wager.
Swiss Sprit should be given strong consideration. With another
winter on his back he should improve a little more on what he was able to do
and it’s interesting that the Racing Post (Spotlight slection as well as being
the horse to follow for International expert Ron Wood) notes that his dam has 4
100+ rated sprinters from just 4 foals, while Vabechek was ridden by Johnny
Murtagh just for a AW maiden, which looks to be a sign in itself as to how
highly rated he is by the Jeremy Noseda yard, who have since enlisted the
services of Ryan Moore for today’s event.
4 pts win Zumbi, 3.35 Newmarket (11/8 Sportingbet &
Bet365)
After his nightmare time in 2011, Sir Michael Stoute could
do with an early score on the board and his Zumbi has been given an excellent chance
by the weights in today’s free handicap. A winner on his debut in a 6f maiden
at Ascot, he was then an excellent third in the Acomb Stakes, having made a
fair amount of ground from midfield to get within challenging range of the
winner Ekithaam, but proving unable to get past the winner and Fort Bastion.
That was an excellent effort – the strongest form in the
race – and his maiden win is also backed up by the fact that four subsequent
winners have also come from that 6f Ascot contest. If ready to go, the weight
that he receives from those above him should prove a major asset.
Redact also deserves a lot of respect based on his second in
the Mill Reef Stakes (an effort that suggested he wold be better for this step
up in trip, much like his Super Sprint effort, and he should be ready to go and
make a bold bid here, although he, Bannock and West Leake Diman have to give
lots of weight away to our selection, which would make one of the main threats
today Telwaar, who gets a 1lbs from the selections after running well on his
last two starts in Listed contests.
1 pt win Russelliana, 4.10 Newmarket (6/1 general, 7/1 Coral)
Speciosa, in 2006, was the last winner of this to go on and
land the 1000 Guineas but the Nell Gwyn has produced decent winners since then
at the least, with Infallible, Fantasia, and Music Show all placing in Group 1
company.
This year’s winner will have to be decent to win – there are
no less than 5 pattern winners here and one filly whose form last season would
have been good enough to see her win many contests, along with the Cheveley
Park Stakes second.
The former filly – Russelliana – is sticking out a like a
sore thumb at 7/1 with Coral despite being in a very competitive race, and she
looks worth supporting at that price today. A good winner on her debut at
Leicester, she looked like the extra distance would have done her some good
when a good second to Gamilati in the Cherry Hinton Stakes, a well contested
race which hasn’t worked out too badly considering how early in the season the
race was run. Having found herself behind when the race got serious, she then
found plenty out wide while the winner had the stands rail to help her. That
form’s been underlined since and with her Ascot run obviously not her true form
– she hasn’t been seen since and was clearly amiss – she looks big here.
Regal Realm – a winner of the best maiden run all season
last year – has been supported as if she’s wintered well and on that form she
would obviously have to take the beating, as she was squeezed through a tight
gap to win her Group race at Goodwood, and her Ascot second might have come on
ground which was a little soft for her. She holds her chance but there’s a
feeling that the value has gone from her price.
Pimpernel, the best horse in this field if a line through
Wading and Sunday Times through the Rockfel Stakes is used literally, also deserves
her short form and guaranteed fitness is also a plus, along with her right
trip. However her UAE Oaks form was a poor effort for me even with excuses and
I’d be worried if she pulled too hard early.
Starscope could be anything but the reality is she has to be
a Group class horse (bordering on Group 2) to win this and this is a much
harder task than her maiden win, so she can win unbacked today; Don’t let me
put you off though.
Sunday Times’s poor run in the Rockfel followed a great
effort in the Cheveley Park; Why that happened is a mystery, although Peter
Chapple Hyam has said that she wants the ground as good as possible and rain
has hit the Rowley Mile today.
Mindidress is likely to be better over further, Lily’s Angel
is the value seeker’s choice but would be an each/way pick for me, and
Mussamaara is interesting for a shrewd yard at a big price despite just not
being convincing enough for a Group race.
1 pt win Jungle Beat, 4.45 Newmarket (11/4 general), 2 pts
top 2 finish (5/6 Hills)
Perenninal, an unlucky and staying on second behind
Rockinante in the Autum Stakes here last year, deserves to be favourite and
will like an extra furlong (and more) at this stage of his career, John Gosden’s
Jungle Beat shaped with immense potential when winning his only start at
Newbury (subsequent dual scorer second) last year and with the step up in trip
meant to be in his favour, he seems well worth supporting in the Fielden Stakes.
With the favourite having such strong claims, the advice is to back our pick
for a top 2 finish, just incase he finds Perennial or something else too strong
in the latter stages.
A fairly well backed horse on his debut, he was green but
had things in charge from a long way out and looked well worthy of stepping up
into pattern class then, with the step up in trip not likely to be a problem. Over the winter he should have improved a
little bit and while he could be ring rusty, but Gosden has a good strike rate
here (24% since 2008) and with 11 placed horses from his last 21 runners, his
string looks in good shape.
A host of fancy entries look significant for Pembrey (a half
brother to Royal Lodge winner), while Stipulate could also be much better this
year, although the latter pulls too hard and has had two runs already in group
company so looks a little exposed.
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