John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase (3.40) - A competitive and classy renewal of
the Foxhunter, with plenty having run to a high level of form in the past, and
two who have won here. Boxer Georg was a close second to Baby Run in this last
year after a disappointing effort at Gowran and comes here after once again
finishing unplaced on his last start. He’s
not 25/1 this time but knows his way around the fences and is sure to be well
suited by the recent rain that has fallen on the track (It was soft when he was
a close second last year) and rated a decent each/way angle at 8’s along with
the 11/5 for a place.
The classy horses usually reign in this and it’s no surprise
to see Gwanako favourite following two wins so easy some questioned the validity
of those races (and the fact horses so vastly superior are allowed to run in
Hunter Chases) with only two rivals facing him in the Queen Mother Memorial
Hunters’ Chase at Sandown. That said it’s clear that he retains a lot of ablity
and he should be hard to beat, for all that he’s very short at 7/2 for such a
well contested field.
Cloudy Lane is another interesting horse; Despite being only
sixth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham (behind early and never able to get into
ant better than third) he was only 3 1/2-lengths behind Tuesday winner Oscar
Delta –so game when winning at Fairyhouse – in the Foxhunters, with My Flora
(also a winner since) another 2 lengths closer. He has much of his winning form
on ground with cut, so deserves respect on that score too, and the return to a shorter
trip might actually have helped him a little bit based on how he ran at
Cheltenham.
Silver Adonis is in good form and that bodes well for a big
show here, although he was just seventh when defending his title last year on
soft ground and things would need to dry out a lot for him, while Offshore
Account was 20 lengths behind Boxer Georg last year; A similar form worry
presides over The Polomoche, who was 34 lengths behind Chapotrugeon (and half
that behind Cloudy Lane) when making his seasonal return at Newbury. With
Steven Flook’s Island Life given a lot of respect, this leaves us with My Way De
Solzen as the class act in the field. A winner of the Arkle in the past life
and a horse who was rated 155 when last seen for the King yard, he has a
serious chance if he retains the ability that was seemingly still there when bolting
up at Hereford last time and he’s worth a win only saver.
Advice: 1 pt win, 1
pt place Boxer Georg (8/1 general, 11/5 Bet365), 1 pt win My Way De Solzen (7/1
Paddy Power)
matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.15) - A tricky race
to sort out. Edgardo Sol has a big chance based on his County Hurdle form but
he’s short enough to leave at 5’s and Paul Nicholls has sent out 20 straight
losers in this race in the last 14 years, so he can win unbacked if he must.
With novices winning six of the last ten runnings (and three of the previous
seven renewals before that), Kumbeshwar goes to the top of our list, with his
huge run in the Anniversary Hurdle last year and the 28 day gap between the two
meetings this year as opposed to most years negating the concerns about a hard
race in the Grand Annual along with a long season; Alan King’s runners are also
223 and while he’d be a very young winner, his Grand Annual run suggests he’s
fine with the hustle and bustle of a big handicap, and the ease in the ground
is no problem. My enthusiasm about Tanks For That is tempered by the fact that Oaul
Jones’s ATR guide tells us that no horse has won carrying more than 11-2 since
Fota Island - and he went on to finish second in the Queen Mother Champion
Chase the following season – but he ran such a big race in the Grand Annual
that it’s hard to think that he’s not improved this year and even if he’s
ridden forcefully then a flatter track will reduce his vulnerability. He gets
the vote over Kid Cassidy – who overraced once again at Cheltenham despite his
obvious talent, as shown when beating Kumbeshwar at Doncaster - for the second
option, with Oiseau De Nuit (best run of any horse this season in field and placed
last two years) deserving of serious respect and Silk Drum (last year’s winner)
coming back into form at the right time; Astracad can bounce back from his
festival disappointment but even if he does so it’s a tough field and De
Boitron looked to be one for a flatter track when disappointing in the Grand
Annual, but now has lost the claim of Lucy Alexander.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Kumbeshwar (7/1 general), 1 pt place
Tanks For That (9/4 general)
Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (5.25) - OUR FATHER disappointed at Cheltenham
but given how he won at Ascot he’s got to be worth another chance and the rain
that’s arrived in recent days is sure to have enhanced his chances; His
Cheltenham disappointment was his first run that didn’t come on anything
without the ground soft in it and that may have had something to do with his
blowout there; This isn’t any easier but on just his sixth career start there
could still be more to come and he deserves another chance to show himself
better than that. Gullinbursi deserves his favouritism – Knock A Hand &
Rocky Creek are both very good horses – but he’s just a touch too short now, which
makes the likes of Veiled – who gets a 6lb-pull with Coral Cup Son Of Flicka
for a five-and-a-half length defeat – a potentially really good value angle
into the race.
Indeed the two Festival winners aren’t hard to fancy; Son Of
Ficka has only gone up 7lbs for winning the Coral Cup while Cape Tribulation
won the Pertemps’ fairly easily given the distance and an 8lbs rise for that
doesn’t seem overly excessive; Both have chances. Sprit River looked more the
horse of old when falling at the last in the Coral Cup; 3 miles around this
track is interesting for the Henderson and Geragthy combination, while Jonjo O’Neill;
Himself a winner of this race 4 times in the last 10 years, has just Palace
Jester in this year’s renewal; Potentially a very significant.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Our Father (9/1 Boylesports, Stan
James, Hills)
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