4.15 Aintree
John Smith's Grand National Chase
(Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 2) (7YO plus)
Winner £547,268
Advice: 1 pt win, 1 pt each/way
On His Own (16/1 general, 14/1 Bet Victor), 1 pt wach/way Ballabriggs (14/1
Bet365, 12/1 Bet Victor), 1 pt each/way Killyglen, (16/1 Bet Victor), 1 pt
each/way Treacle (18/1 Bet Victor)
Synchronised: Transformed himself
from slow handicapper into top class chaser during the past 12 months, winning
Lexus Chase before then staying on best of all in the Gold Cup to win in clear
cut style at the end; Best horse in the race and his mark actually is very fair
but this race presents all sorts of other obstacles;Bang there if in contention
turning for home and nothing will stay better, but has to be a worry that value
might have gone from his price now and remains to be seen how he’ll take to the
famous fences; If he does so well, massive shout.
Ballabriggs: Landed last year’s
National under superb front running ride from half way, devouring every fence
since being sent into the lead on second circuit (now 10lbs higher); Only had
the one run since but travelled like all the ability was there when fading into
fourth at Kelso in decent on his only run since, with his trainer and jockey
happy with his performance there; No horse ever retained this since Red Rum but
record of those defending their title has been improving steadily, with
Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die, and Don’t Push It all in the frame after winning,
while Mon Mome looked set to play a big part when falling in 2010; Worthy of
major respect.
Weird Al: Lost his way last
season after injury curtailed plans for a tilt at the RSA Chase 2 years ago but
back in style with excellent win over Time For Rupert (gave 3lbs) in the
Charlie Hall Chase before creditable third in the Betfair Chase, getting within
12 lengths of Long Run and Kauto Star; Massive chance on that form but all best
in smaller fields and burst blood vessel in Gold Cup; Others preffered.
Calgary Bay: As classy as any in
this field on his day and showed his prowess with quite impressive wins at
Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and then when beating reopposing and quite popular
Shakalakaboomboom in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster last time out; Had more in
hand that day for sure and hard not to think he’s one of the better ones in the
field purely on ablity; Main question for him would be one of stamina given
that he tends to win his races with one burst, and carrying a fair amount of
weight; Another who couldn’t be written off.
Planet Of Sound: High class on his day, as
shown by his win in the Punchestown Gold Cup which was just 5 starts ago; Lost
his way a little after that but ran a very solid trial for this when second in
the Hennessy in November, staying onto be a clear second best behind Carruthers;
Beaten further in the Racing Plus chase but likely he wants the stronger trip
and should be a big player for this with a sound jumping, front running
technique to aid him. 
Black Apilachi: Lightly raced for one so
old, and has given three great front running efforts over these fences, most
notably when second here in 2010 to Don’t Push It; Excellent comeback behind
Prince De Beauchene at Faiyhouse considering that he’d been off for so long and
that rival’s absence here a bonus for this horse, so lots to like about him;
Only worry here would be that he doesn’t look well treated by a mark that
hasn’t changed in 2 years, for all large amounts of his ablity look like
remaining intact. 
Deep Purple: More than enough talent to
take a big hand here, being a 5 time grade 2 winner under rules; Looked as good
as ever when landing London National with fair bit in hand at the end and that
gave hope or a tilt at this trip later on, but broke blood vessel on latest
outing and that cause for concern while stable seems to be far more keen on
chances of Cappa Bleu and State Of Play; Capabale of things go right for him
but one gets the feeling that much needs to drop right for him. 
Junior: Uber versatile horse who has
wins over flat and jumps (bidding to complete remarkable hat trick of major
meeting wins); Became a serious contender for this when bolting up in the Kim
Muir at the festival last year, and everything been aimed at this since; One
good run since but Grimthrope effort now looks a lot better since giving more
than a stone in weight to subsequent winner Ikorodu Road having made many mistakes
on the way round along while also having looked set for remote third turning
in; That gives him a strong chance once again but now 19lbs higher than he was
for Cheltenham success and despite fact he’s only had eight chase starts, this
asks yet more of him. 
Chicago Grey: Had a terrific novice
season which culminated in impressive and clear cut success in National Hunt
Chase last year; Hasn’t found the same form since in any of his starts but
quietly fancied with trainer having won this recently with Silver Birch and
feeling that he’s been targeted solely at this; Could have been running better
in the build up to this and has to be a worry how he never quite got on terms
in Scottish National, having been behind from an early stage; Needs to keep in
touch and jump well to have chance here.
Tatenen: Landed valuable handicap chase
at Ascot for second year running having romped away with same contest in 2011;
When things drop right, doesn’t lack for talent, but now off 150 and massive
question asked about his propensity to stay this trip while some others would
also seem better handicapped. 
Seabass: Few more progressive in this
field, having won his last 7 starts over a variety of distances, the longest of
which has been a 3 mile point to point; No horse has shown the natural speed he
has when giving 3lbs and winning Grade 2 over 2 miles last time out, and would
have to be seriously respected on a pure form point of view; Major worry is
stamina, given that he’s never gone further than 3 miles, although he’s never
seemed a weak type in finish; Tempting. 
Shakakalakaboomboom: Dissappointing last
season but found his niche since upped in trip, returning from Punchestown win
after seven month break with clear cut and impressive Cheltenham success before
good second in the Skybet Chase behind Calgary Bay before spin over hurdles;
Jumps this course well, won from the front in the past, and still looks
progressive, so has to go on the shortlist despite the fact that he’s not
weighted to turn around form with Calgary Bay from last time.
West End Rocker: Brought down at sixth
last year after successful campaign in long distance chases and comes here off
the back of wide margin success in Becher Chase on heavy ground in December,
which was an impressive display in itself; despite the fact that winning margin
was greatly enchanced by ground; Supported heavily when rain came earlier in
the week and while things have dried out now, does have good ground wins to his
name and likely to be there or thereabouts at the finish. 
According To Pete: Refound the form which
saw him land a 4 timer in late 2008 this year, benefitting from basement mark
to land Peter Marsh Chase before then following up in Tommy Whittle at Haydock,
showing guts and class in equal measure; Solid prep run for this race when
second in good looking Kelso chase last time out and has a strong chance on
line of form which sees him come out 11lbs better off with Ballabriggs having
already beaten him by 5 lengths and each/way prospects as good as any. 
On His Own: One of many horses who
switched from Howard Johnson to Mullins/Nicholls yards at beginning of season;
Only had the 8 chase runs and 2 for this yard but few more impressive winners
of a handicap chase when he bolted home in the Thyestes Chase last time out,
barely being touched to win by 13 lengths; Up 17lbs here but that a fair rise
considering manner of his win and suprising he’s not received more attention
with defection of Ruby Walsh from Prince De Beauchene an extra bonus; Seems
sure to stay, trainer has said he’d improve for better ground, may well have
more to come and yard/jockey have exemplary national record, so has to be high
on the shortlist here.
Always Right: One of the most
progressive chasers in training over the past season and the only runner to
make up significant ground from further back in the field when a close third in
the Scottish national of last season and as good as ever when clear cut winner
of Kelso handicap chase on seasonal debut; Awful run in Peter Marsh Chase put
down to breathing issue and that was being proven right until two out in Tommy
Whittle, where he once again pulled up sharply; as good as any if in the mood
but wellbeing to prove. 
Cappa Bleu: Announced himself under
rules when winning Foxhunters by 12 lengths on rules debut; Dissappointed since
but only now has he been able to have a full season and showing the full
benefit, winning well on seasonal debut while before good efforts in Welsh
National (ground too heavy, best of anything that was held up) and at Ascot
(given a little much to do in what was essentially just a tuneup for the race);
Must be given close respect. 
Rare Bob: Irish National fourth and Grade
1 winner in the same season 3 years ago but not the same horse since based on
his well beaten efforts this year, fading quickly when push came to shove in
Becher Chase and not being able to land a blow in any race since; Lot on his
plate here. 
Organisedconfusion: Comes here as last
season’s Irish National, crucially the one time he’s raced beyond 2m5f; All
roads led here for him since, starting off his season with a couple of solid
runs over hurdles and after coming down early on his return to fences in
January, running respectably over an inadequate two and a quarter miles at
Gowran last month; Would have to be hugely respected given history of Irish
National winners/placed horses but no seven year old has won since 1940 and
that has to be a huge negative on his chances; Still entitled to major respect
here. 
Treacle: Progressed at a rate of knots
since winning at Gowran in October, coming a close and arguably unlucky second
in the Paddy Power Chase before staying on hard in the Irish Hennessy when never
really in the race; Has to be respected based on that level of form and serious
prospects if that form can be read literally but one has to wonder if he’s
flattered by his latest effort, which does leave him with a 17lbs higher mark
than the one he was second off over Christmas; Could still have a chance given
the way race might play out and worthy of respect. 
The Midnight Club: Came into this last
year as favourite but only able to finish sixth at best after putting his foot
into the first ditch; Not been in the same form since but has his excuses for
poor runs this season, with heavy ground offered as an excuse twice for those
below par efforts (although he can’t possibly have been fit enough on his first
run proper of season) and he was never going to do anything in Gold Cup;
Interesting here. 
Mon Mome: 2009 winner who was by no
means out of things when falling at the fourth last in 2010 National, having
worked his way into a decent position; Missed entire season but seemed to have
come back into form when second at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day; Dissapointing
since but had his excuses as he clearly doesn’t enjoy the heavy ground there
and hurdles run just a prep; Interesting at 66’s although one would have hoped
for a better opportunity to show his spark. 
Arbor Supreme: Just a length behind The
Midnight Club when he was in better form coming into this year’s race but
proceeded to fall for the second time running that time around having struggled
to make his impact on the race fully; That his second failure to complete the
course in two tries and hard to fancy here having made the sudden switch
towards Jonjo O’Neill stable. 
Sunnyhillboy: Staying on third in last
year’s Irish National (favourite) having been badly hampered when still a
little further behind then he would have wanted; Plotted up since to land Kim
Muir but did so in exemplary style when running away from Becauseicouldntsee at
Cheltenham; Sure to stay and has to be respected here despite only 2 winners
since 1960 supplementing a festival success. 
Killyglen: Lost his way after winning
Grade 2 novice at this meeting in 2009 but steady revival through handicaps saw
him come second in a Grimthrope; Running a storming race when falling at the
fourth last in last year’s renewal, where it’s hard to think that he wouldn’t
have played a big part in proceedings based on visual impression that he left;
Running over hurdles to keep him ticking over since but good run behind Cappa
Bleu when sent too early at Haydock and hurdles fourth at Cheltenham along with
easy win at Down Royal suggest he actually comes into this year’s renewal in
even better form than before, and all that for a 5lbs lower mark; Serious
chance. 
Quiscover Fontaine: Run beyond 2m5f only
once over hurdles or fences but that when fourth in last year’s Irish National;
Won over hurdles once since when chasing decent handicap prizes and interesting
here given his form ties in closely with two well fancied shots; That said, no
reason for form reversal today and others preffered despite tempting odds of
50/1. 
Tharawaat: Won handicap chase at Galway
easily but that on heavy ground (3 from 3 on the surface when heavy is only
word described) and faces much tougher test today, as has been shown by his
seventh place in Thyestes; Needs far more. 
Becauseicouldntsee: Fell at the second
in this last year but long before then have we known his prowess as a staying
chaser, finishing runner up to Poker De Sivola in National Hunt Chase at
Cheltenham, while his runner up effort to Majestic Concorde in Paddy Power
Chase also reads well now; 4 lengths behind Sunnyhillboy in Kim Muir handicap
chase at Cheltenham and no better off for that defeat, which does leave a
slight question mark, although prominent style of racing sure to be a big help
towards him. 
State Of Play: 4th, 3rd and 4th in last
three Grand Nationals, all off falling marks (he now races off just 140 today),
and all having made up late ground through beaten horses; Stable in cracking
form and deserves major respect, with few horses boasting a course record like
he has, for all that he does seem to leave himself too far behind to be a
realistic contender for the win.
Swing Bill: Model of consistency,
winning Amateurs’ handicap at Cheltenham at beginning of season in really good
style before then running a solid race in defeat at Ascot; Couldn’t stay the
Becher trip on heavy so 4m4f on good is unlikely to be out of his compass and
others prefferred today.
Postmaster: Found a little improvement
of late to win his last two races but hardly streaking clear of Ostland at the
end of 3 miles at Bangor in October despite the good nature of his win, and
Hunter Chase that he won last time nothing on this; Needs far more. 
Giles Cross: One of the most solid
horses in training, having become a soft ground handicap chase specialist with
two Welsh national seconds and a Midlands National win; One of best
performances yet when winning Grand National trial with cheeky little bit in
hand (perfect ride from Denis O’Regan) and that form makes him big player, but
ground has dried out from earlier on this week and needs it much softer than
this to make his mark.
Midnight Haze: Prepared for this with
sixth in the cross country chase at Cheltenham and not beaten miles at that for
all he never really looked like properly being involved with the finish of the
race; That supplements easy win at Ludlow beforehand and interesting if one
considers improvement forthcoming at such large odds of 100/1; That said, fair
amount to prove.
Vic Venturi: A whopping 19lbs lower than
last year in this race and not all the ablity gone based on his second in
Punchestown Gold Cup second; Mucus in his lungs when unplaced behind Salisfy
latest and hard to trust based on that with stablemate Black Apilachi
preffered.
In Compliance: Finished last year but
beaten 98 lengths by Ballabriggs and since pulled up behind Seabass while being
beaten 37 lengths by Killyglen at Down Royal last time; Much more needed. 
Viking Blond: Hasn’t gone on in
handicaps based on the promising start he made to novice chasing when a clear
cut winner over useful rival before then coming respectable fourth in novice
chase next time out; found nothing in Welsh National although struggling badly
from a fair way out and mistake before business end cost him at Ascot; Needs
another year. 
Hello Bud: Always gives things his best
go and admirable fifth in 2010 renwal a real highlight but pulled up last year
and likely to do so again at the ripe old age of 14.
Neptune Equester: This type of race had
looked realistic when gridining out a 3m4f win at Haydock earlier in the season
but he’s since disappointed badly; 150/1 is overpriced on his best form, but
that a long time ago.
VERDICT: Anyone of 20 realistic winners
in one of the best renewals from a betting and quality perspective in recent
years. Gold cup winner Synchronised being here is a real sign of the times and
if he’s in with a shout turning for home nothing will stay on better but he had
a tremdously hard race at Cheltenham and he’s been known to take a while to get
over his races in the past, while no horse since the great Golden Miller has
won the Gold Cup and National in the same season, so he’s just left out of the
portfolio especially with his price likely to come in for support during the
day thanks to the McCoy factor. From a multitude of progressive contenders, ON
HIS OWN makes the most appeal. A 13 length winner of the Thyestes last time out
he now gets the assistance of Ruby Walsh following the defection of Prince Du
Beauchene thanks to injury, and he seems to have been overlooked unfairly as
purely a replacement, although the manner of his Thyestes win and trainer
record during the race says different. He’s had only 8 chase starts, but that
leaves only more to come and with Big Fella Thanks in recent years proving that
a big run from a second season chaser is no impossibility, he’s taken to give
Mullins and Walsh their second win in this race since Hedgehunter in 2005. Next
on the list is BALLABRIGGS, who was so game when winning this last season. No
horse has retained his title since Red Rum but plenty have made the frame in
defending their title and the form figures of the last 10 returning champions
are 64026203, impressive figures when you consider how well Mon Mome was
travelling when he fell, and also the age of Amberligh House, who could have
been written off on the grounds of being a 13 year old at the time he came back
to defending his crown. With the rain having stayed away he looks to be a solid
each/way bet at 14/1. KILLYGLEN was travelling as well as anything before
falling at the fourth from home last year but he now comes into this year’s
renewal with a win under his belt off a 5lbs lower mark; Everything seems to be
in his favour and he fits the profile of so many recent winners, which makes
the general 18/1 being offered about him more than fair. Last onto the shortlist
in the main is Paddy Power Chase winner TREACLE, who may have risen 17bs in the
handicap since the beginning of the season but appeals as a horse who will
improve significantly for stepping up in trip today, which gives him a lot of
appeal if able to keep with the pace early (he led on one of his wins before
coming from far behind for late finishes in the Paddy Power chase and Irish
Hennessy). Of the others, Cappa Bleu seems certain to make a big challenge and
was very hard to leave out of the original portfolio, while there’s also a
certain attraction with West End Rocker, who looked such a safe conveyance
around these fences in December. the closely matched pairs of Calgary Bay and
Shakalakaboomboom, and Becauseicouldntsee and Sunnyhillboy are hugely deserving
of respect, with the beaten horses from their last time out meetings seemingly
more suited by this course than their respective rivals, although those horses had
a lot in hand when winning at Doncaster and Cheltenham and aren’t weighted to
have the tables turned on them. Junior
should make a bold bid if he hasn’t ruined his handicap mark at Cheltenham in
the Kim Muir, while Organisedconfusion might find this coming a year too soon,
Giles Cross needs softer ground, Chicago Grey’s recent form leaves him with a
lot to prove, and Seabass is as good as any but might not stay.
No comments:
Post a Comment