1 pt win Johnny Mudball, 2.40 Nottingham (11/4 Boylesports)
This is a really competitive conditions event with the top
three – Dinkum Diamond, Jonny Mubdall & Triple Aspect - all holding very
strong form claims, but with Dinkum Diamond having to give away 9lbs to the
other two, he’s only just given the swerve on his first run as a 4 year old
despite a steadily progressive profile last year. Triple Aspect goes very well
fresh and is worthy of respect here but Johnny Mudball could be the one. An
impressive second in the Stewards Cup a couple of years ago, he was then 3rd
in his group in the Ayr Gold Cup. An even better effort came when he was only
just edged out for third in the Palace House Stakes and while this is his first
run back from injury, he needs serious respecting based on his earlier form.
1 pt win Robemaker, 5.10 Nottingham (5/1 general)
The second last at Nottingham seems fiercely competitive and
I’m not discounting anything but one jumped off the page as soon as I started
looking and that was Robemaker, who I had as my second Lincoln horse of choice
before he was withdrawn from that event. Largely competitive in all his starts last
season apart from two blowouts, but those came at a track that it’s now known
he doesn’t like in Newmarket (unplaced in all of his runs there). The form of
his two handicap seconds seems fairly solid in this case and with improvement
arguably expected from 3-4 (powerful connections are persisting with him from a
mark of 91) and one only needs to take a look at the horses infront of him on
his final start at Newmarket (a course that he doesn’t like all that much, it
should be remembered); Mull Of Killough second in the Lincoln and an unlucky
one at that, was just 2 lengths ahead of him, Diverting was on a 4 race winning
streak, Double Dealer underlined the form with an excellent returning second at
Kempton, while his Goldphin stablemates Farhh and Roayh where previous winners
that season. The rain that’s arrived on
the ground should also help his chances a fair but and the John Gosden team has
had plenty of success
1 pt win Madamoonah, 9.25 Dundalk (11/4 Bet365, Paddy Power)
This 10 furlongs condition event is dominated by the
Ballydoyle filly Devotion, who was a creditable fourth in a Listed event (a
previous maiden winner in good style) before finding the step up to Group 1
company in the Fillies Mile too much. Given her breeding she looks to have an outstanding
chance but at 5/4 there’s one factor which is a slight putoff; The record of Ballydoyle
horses on their seasonal debuts and the record of Ballydoyle horses in early
season. O’Brien, for all his firepower and the fact that his horses are
generally running OK given their actual level of form, has only had 2 winners
from 27 runners this season, his last being Daddy Long Legs in the UAE Derby
(notable because he was a high class horse and also had been prepared for the
race). The only Irish winner he’s had has been Robin Hood and even then the alertness
of jockeys to his new tacticssaw him finish only fourth when attempting to
follow up a week later. While only Colla Pier- who showed enough on 3 starts
last year to be winning races but not enough - of the four isn’t making her seasonal debut
today, the question marks over her fitness are enough to see her given the
swerve. Aloof is second favourite following her good second to Wading over
C&D before her maiden win but there could be a touch more value with
Madhmoonah. While she was lucky to meet Wading on her debut at the Curragh she
ran out a pretty convincing winner nonetheless. Clearly below form when disappointing
on her pattern debut, she deserves another chance here.
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