Saturday, 21 April 2012

Scottish Grand National 2012


1 pt each/way Merigo, (15/2 Sportingbet, 7/1 Boylesports paying 5 places), 0.5 pt each/way Galaxy Rock (10/1 general), 3.25 Ayr

The Scottish Grand National – in line with most of the other Nationals this year – looks like a very strong renewal on the face of things with plenty of young, progressive sorts. Of the first 6 in the betting, 5 are no older than 10, but the 11 year old Merigo makes most appeal here to try and win the race for a second time in three years.

An 18/1 shot when romping home with the 2010 renewal, he had little or no form to speak of until running another screamer in last year’s renewal, splitting the uber progressive pair of Beshabar and Always Right and threatening to get up in the line. Having been 12lbs out of the handicap that day, he’s now back in the weights proper and has seen his mark drop 8lbs since then, while his win over heavy ground here last time is a massive bonus given how this has clearly been the only target since last year’s renewal. People have begun to cotton onto this and he’s a best priced 15/2 with PPower and Sportingbet, but he still rates a solid each/way bet at the prices, with 7/1 avalaible for those who want the cover of a fifth place.

Next best is Galaxy Rock, who looked on course for such big things when romping home with a comeptitve Cheltenham handicap chase in November before disappointing in the Welsh National when pulled up, although the war of attrition that the ground made it that day means the ffort is best forgiven. He was well beaten into fourth in the Skybet Chase but first and second Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom were class acts while Fruity O’Rooney ran a screamer in the JLT Handicap Chase at the Festival next time out. He’s 5lbs better off with Gary Moore’s charge today and looks sure to enjoy a stamina test on good ground, with his ability to race prominently a massive plus, and his handicap hurdle third was an excellent prep.

Harry The Viking deserves respect based on his progressive form throughought the season and he looked to improve a significant amount for four miles when staying on for a close second in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival, doing his best work up the run in. He should be there at the finish and was a tempting option with a mark of 143 not overestimating him, and this has been a decent race for novices with three winners in the past decade while Paul Nicholls has saddled a couple of agonisingly close seconds with both Ladalko and Cornish Rebel going down by just a short-head.

Portrait King should handle a 9lbs rise for his Eider win based on the ease with which he travelled and picked up and also caught the eye from an early stage in the declartions, with his previous win in the Irish Grand National trial actually proving to be even stronger form than his Eider win. With novices having a good record he stands out, assuming that he’s not held up early.

Knockara Beau, who didn’t run a bad race at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup and previously had been third in the Argento Chase, holds a good shout on several efforts this season and is hard to dismiss, with the trip sure to suit him. He looks to be an ideal candidate for this event along with Ikorodu Road, who has been impressive in different ways when winning at 3m2f the last twice. When he beat Junior in the Grimthrope at Doncaster it looked as if he’d been slightly hampered by the last fence fall of Pentiffic and in any case, a longer trip may well have seen him win, although his fall at the second in the National does make this an afterthought and I’d like to see how he travels early with a view to backing him in running.

Quentnin Collonges has been interesting some based on his clear cut win over the Cockney Mackem although others are preferred; Best of the outsiders looks to be Abbeybranaey and Any Currency. 

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