Ryanair Novice Chase 2012

4.55 Punchestown

Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5YO plus)

Winner €62,000

Advice: 1 pt win Lucky William (7/1 Coral)

Blackstairmountain: Seemed rejuvenated when landing Grade 1 in Ireland (probably helped by fall of hot favourite that day) and easy to forgive his Irish Arkle disappointment on the basis of the ground, but this being run in same conditions here and hard to fancy with surface this testing.

First Lieutenant: Looked for all the world as if he was going to make a chaser when winning the Neptune Novice Hurdle at last year’s festival (race has worked out really well) but disappointing over fences before RSA Chase second at Festival; Could be the most talented horse in the race but much better on quick ground and drops back in trip a mile.

Lucky William: Decent hurdler in novice days and gets a second crack at chasing having probably suffered dent in confidence when falling and set to win on chasing debut; Has since come back in style though, left clear at the last on return before then winning decent Grade 3 and winning novice handicap chase last time out after being well beaten in Grade 1 events; Would normally be discounted but does handle ground and travels well so has to be considered seriously.

Menorah:  High class over hurdles (Supreme Novice, Greatwood, and International Hurdle winner) who’s taken his time with fences, unseating over fences on debut before making several blunders in two facile wins in novice events; Fell again in Doncaster Grade 2 but Arkle effort followed up by Aintree romp make him the form choice; Major worry is over testing ground.

Regal D’Estruval: Has heavy ground form but only rated 126 and needs so much more to be able to trouble the best of these.

Shot From The Hip: Grade 1 winner at this meeting last year but not lived upto the same level over fences and disappointed off mark of just 136 in handicap last time, which leaves him with a lot of ground to make up.

Kumbeshwar: Had excellent novice campaign  this year, holding his own in Graded events before performing creditably in handicaps the last twice at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals; Good efforts both times but major question is how does he handle ground this testing (won on heavy at Plumpton but had only one decent rival to beat that time).

VERDICT: A fairly weak renewal of this race although its position in the calendar and the atrocious ground may well have something to do with that. Menorah’s probably the class act of this field but there’s a big question mark regarding him and the ground. First Lieutenant has some of the best form in the race but his top performances have all come on good ground and he drops back a mile in trip. If those two are affected badly by the race conditions, then LUCKY WILLIAM could well be the one to profit, with extremely testing ground not likely to be a major problem for him.