Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle 2012

2.30 Aintree

Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+)

Advice: 1 pt Grumeti & Dodging Bullets to place (3.44 Bet365), 1 pt win Dodging Bullets (9/2 general)

Bradbury: Beaten too far behind Hinterland to suggest that he has a chance here despite being a C&D winner.

Countrywide Flame: Proved progressive with every single start over hurdles, putting up a career best effort in defeat when second to Hollow Tree at Chepstow and then again when third to Hisaabaat and Shadow Catcher; 33-1 winner of Triumph and while he’s entitled to win once again, had a fierce pace to come into at Cheltenham which played into his strengths up the hill; Should go well once again but this a far tighter track and interesting to see how form plays out.

Dodging Bullets: Progressive on the flat last summer, ending steady sequence of improvement with good win over Hisaabaat (Grade 1 winner over hurdles of late) on flat when rated 89; Promising hurdling debut when second to Grumeti at Kempton and even better when travelling like one of the best in the race in the Triumph, but failing to get up the hill having pulled hard all the way round; Big chance here.

Eagle Rock: Never out of the first two in four starts but eight lengths behind Countrywide Flame on hurdling debut and no reason to think that form should have changed around with both horses
vastly improved now.

Gottany O’s: Hit and miss so far over hurdles but good at his best, when beating Lvyvius (reopposing) easily at Newbury, but himself beaten at 1/3 afterwards; This step up in class looks sure to find him out.

Grumeti: Possibly the most impressive performance by a novice this season when he routed all aged field on his debut at Taunton, winning by 14 lengths; Unlucky to fall at Newbury when set to win and while he needed stewards to win at Cheltenham on trials day (also 3lbs worse off with Pearl Swan), feeling is that he went into a very strong pace and jockey that day sure he was cost the race; Warmed up for this with comfortable win over Dodging Bullets and once again ahead of that rival when running cracker in Triumph, looking as if he was sent for home a little too early; Supposed to be ridden with more restraint.

Hinterland: Deeply impressive on one French jumps start when running away with Auteil Listed hurdle and good UK start when winning Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham; Bubble seemingly burst when Baby Mix thrashed him by eight lengths although not a bad run by any means when third in competitive 2 mile handicap hurdle at same track last time out.

Kapaga De Cerisy: Only fair British debut in hindsight when fourth, 33 lengths behind Hollow Tree and roughly the same behind Countywide Flame in Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow; Has since won but exposed in the Fred Winter when no better than midfield  and passed over.

Lyvius: Looked useful when winning at Kelso on debut but failed his Cheltenham test when beaten by Gottany O’s at Newbury and while he’s since won easily, this is an altogether tougher test and others preferred.

Pearl Swan: Useful enough on the flat despite being a maiden and made an excellent start to life over hurdles when winning all aged novice at Taunton; Even better when coming from miles back to nail Grumeti (had been a sitting duck) giving him 3lbs on Cheltenham’s  trials day; Potentially very significant that despite bad form of stable he was set for big show having been staying on late when falling at last and deserves respect here for all it’ll be interesting to see how pace plays for him as all his best work coming up Cheltenham hill.

Sadler’s Risk: Useful on the flat (fourth in the Chester Vase, which this year worked out very well) and created a deep impression on his hurdling debut at Kempton, when destroying an admittedly weak field; Good run when second to Baby Mix at Kempton and travelled well for long way in Triumph before being tired (no surprise as he went a fierce gallop); Calmer ride and this track make him as big a contender as any while still having something to prove.

Zarzal: Decent enough flat performer but only a fair middle distance maiden in Ireland; As good a hurdling debut as could be hoped for when nice third behind Grumeti and Doging Bullets at Kempton but those two seem superior.

Beyeh: Clear cut winner latest; This flying too high.

VERDICT: A fascinating renewal which will take a lot of sorting out as the Triumph form – this year run at a cracking gallop all the way round which demanded stamina – moves to one of the country’s sharpest tracks. Countrywide Flame deserves a lot of respect no matter what conditions are and should take some catching, but he was far more suited to the test than GRUMETI & DODGING BULLETS were, with Alan King’s charge racing too close to a very strong pace and being sent off into the lead a bit soon for comfort, while Paul Nicholls’s Dodging Bullets raced keenly and saw too much daylight before his run flattened out. It’s hard not to think that both will be suited by more restrained rides around this track and while it might be asking a bit much for them to turn around the form, it’s not inconceivable that both could be placed and the double pays 3.44 to 1 with Bet365 if successful, while a small win wager on the Nicholls charge should be no harm; Zarkandar won this on his 3^rd career start after taking in the Adonis and Triumph, albeit having won both. Pearl Swan – staying on very strongly when falling at the last in the Triumph – is worthy of major respect, along with Sadler’s Risk, but the two placed horses in the Triumph are capable of big shows.