2 pts Gemologist, 10.15 Aqueduct (7/4 Coral)
With Union Rags being beaten into third in last week’s
Florida Derby there’s now room for a new leader at the head of the Kentucky
Derby market and given the history of the Wood Memorial it’s likely the winner
of this event tonight will take favouritism for the big race.
Both Alpha and Gemologist have to place to be sure of their
spot in the big event, and Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten colt gets only marginal
preference over his Godolphin rival, thanks mainly to the fact that his 7
length defeat of Currency Swap (a Grade 1winner last year in the Hopeful
Stakes) represents the most impressive form going into the race, and that for a
trainer who seems to have a very strong hand in the 3 year old events this
season – his Algorithms was market leader with Britishbookmakers for the Grade
2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park before opposing a splint.
Twice a winner at Churchill Downs as a 2 year old, including
the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he returned with a hugely
impressive aforementioned defeat of Currency Swap in his allowance at
Gulfstream and with that under his belt, he may well even improve again for
that which makes him a tempting proposition for tonight race. Alpha has done
well so far and should prove his toughest test, although he actually comes here
off a two month layoff and that’s not exactly a great pointer despite going
wide.
One to take important note of is the progressive Street Life
has won two of his three starts this year—both on the Aqueduct inner track.
Trainer Chad Brown has a lot confidence in his charge’s chances and that should
be taken into account tonight, but the vote goes to Gemonolgist.
4 pts win Caleb’s Posse, 10.55 Aqueduct, (2/1 Hills)
The 7 furlong division is probably the best US racing
division by some way, something represented by the fact that there are three
Grade 1 winners in a race that lost multiple graded winner and big player Calibarachoa
earlier today.
On paper that makes things easier for Breeders’ Cup Dirt
Mile winner Caleb’s Posse and while that’s not strictly true, he should still
take a great deal of beating in any case, having only just failed to give 4lbs
to Calibrachoa on his seasonal comeback in the Tom Fool handicap here over 6
furlongs. What was incredible was the fact that he was stone last turning for
home and looked well set to be beaten off out of the places, but just in the
last furlong he passed nearly the entire field to claim a late second.
He’d have won handsomely over the extra furlong today and
with that run behind him he has to have an outstanding chance. Giving away 4lbs
to Jackson Bend will not be easy for him but he’s got the class to do it on a
line through his King’s Bishop win over Uncle Mo and if he turns up on his best
then he’s got the class to deal with Schalkeford as well, who can be rated better
than his reappearance run in the Donn, although Breeders Cup form sees him well
behind Caleb’s Posse.
1 pt win Creative Cause, 10.30 Sanita Anita (6/4 Stan James)
The West Coast hasn’t had a Derby winner for a good while
but Creative Cause looks as good a chance as any they’ll be having and the 6/4
that Stan James are offering on him winning the Santa Anita Derby looks well
worth a poke despite the fact that he’s not exactly one to trust with the rent
money.
A deeply impressive winner of the Norfolk Stakes, he went
into the Breeders Cup as one of the main chances and ran a huge race only to
find Hansen and Union Rags – who have both won Graded events since in
impressive style – too strong at the end of what has since turned out to be a
quality renewal, marking him down as a horse of real potential for this season.
He was widely expected to beat Drill again (sent off at just
1/2) in the San Vicente but couldn’t find the gears on his seasonal debut with
Mike Harrington suggesting that he might well be a two turn horse, a theory
proven when he came from off the pace to give weight and a beating to the
hlightly regarded Bodemister despite running around under pressure late on.
The blinkers that he usually wears have been taken off to
find out if he’ll if he wander under pressure today but even then he’s the most
talented horse in the race and while a win here is not essential, anything
other than a big show would be massively disappointing here with the ablity
that he possess.
I’ll Have Another is the main threat on all form and needs
to make the top two for a spot at Churchill Downs. An impressive winner of the
Lewis Stakes (he’s not been seen since), he deserves a huge amount of respect
with his connections having clearly had this one target for him to make the
final field. With rumours surrounding the participation of Holy Candy, Liason
is one for the value seekers to consider at 10/1 with Coral; He’s said to be a
better horse with a longer distance and is a major contender for the three
places.
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