3.05 Aintree
John Smith's Melling Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £98,472
Advice: 3 pts win Albertas Run, 4 pts Albertas Run - Insurebet
- 3 Places (3/1 general, evs Bet365)
Albertas Run: Won and come second in the last two runnings
of this race; ; As good as ever when winning Old Roan Chase and defied injury
to come heroic second in the Ryanair Chase, losing out by just a length to
Riverside Theatre on the run in; No reason why he shouldn’t run a huge race and
the drying ground (had been soft earlier in the week) is another positive. 
Finian’s Rainbow: Promising, if not sometimes too
enthusiastic for his own good over hurdles but really came to the fore as a
novice chaser last season, winning four out of his 5 races (including the
Maghull), meeting with defeat only in the Arkle (where he was outstayed by
winner having gone on quite soon from home); Now calmer this season & remarkable
that he got up close home at Kempton in December despite his awful mistake
someway out, but beaten after having every chance in Victor Chandler Chase;
Bounced back to win Champion Chase at Cheltenham and that would make him the
one to beat today; Some might question stamina but winner over 2m4f so looks
the one to beat. 
Forpadydeplasterer: Back from sickness this season to run
his usual solid races, twice behind Big Zeb at Punchestown and then when fourth
behind Somsersby in the Victor Chandler; Sixth in Ryanair a fair run but has it
to prove on the balance of that here. 
Kalahari King: Very useful in the past and big things looked
on their way when winning handicap chase with ease back in 2010 but never had
it drop right for him since and now looks to have lost a step.
Kauto Stone: Hugely exciting recruit, being a half-brother
to fabled Kauto Star and also a Grade 1 winner in France; Exciting when romping
home in Grade 2 at Down Royal on seasonal debut but proved no match for Sizing
Europe in Tingle Creek and has to atone for disappointing effort in Ascot
Chase; Fell at the first in Champion Chase and lots to prove. 
Poquelin: Beaten favourite last two runnings; Best run since
winning limited handicap when second to The Giant Bolster last time out giving
tons of weight; That form now doesn’t look at all bad and 3rd rated
if all run to form; Appeals as a possible each/way bet although he’s held by
Albertas Run and ran a stinker at this meeting in 2010 and in novice
handicapping days; Strong place claims.
Pure Faith: Ran Albertas Run to a head here in October but
now more than a stone worse off and not up to this.
Wishfull Thinking; Proven bitterly disappointing since doing
so well last season over middle distances; Seemed to be back to form when
pushing Finian’s Rainbow all the way at Kempton but seriously regressive once
again with poor efforts at Ascot and heavy fall in Champion Chase; Similar type
in Menorah bounced right back to best and if same happened here with string in
good form then serious chance but been generally disappointing.
VERDICT: Finian’s Rainbow is sure to be a popular choice supplement
his Queen Mother Champion Chase win but ALBERTAS RUN is likely to be no
pushover, having a layoff to push Riverside Theatre close in the Ryanair Chase
a day later. With the ground having come right just in time for his charge, and
the trip to his advantage despite the favourite’s win over 2m4f in his novice
hurdling days, he looks big at 3’s in comparison to the 5/4 offered on Nicky
Henderson’s favourite, with evens offered if you want moneyback on him
finishing in the first three, which makes sense given that note no horse beaten
in the previous year's Melling Chase has ever come back and won it 12 months
later. Poquelin had an impossible task trying to give stacks of weight to The
Giant Bolster (subsequent runner-up in Cheltenham Gold Cup) last time and is a
clear 3rd best on the figures if one forgives his poor efforts at
this meeting in the past.
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