John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle 2012

4.15 Aintree

John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £56,270 -

Advice: 1 pt win Fingal Bay (6/4 general), 0.5 pts each/way Harry Topper (20/1 general)

Aikedeau: Found his niche of proper staying trips with double on heavy and then good to soft ground at Plumpton in pair of novice hurdles before creditable 12l third off 128 at Sandown last time; Needs much more than that here to take a major hand.

Ballyrock: 10 length point winner who proved hugely disappointing when only sixth on hurdling debut before getting the better of Listed bumper winner One Term at Hereford, an achievement made all the more useful by the fact it came after such a break; Got within a length of Fingal Bay at Newbury and saved for this, so has to be seriously respected purely on that form although ground’s still likely to be the quickest he’s ever run on.

Cotton Mill: One of many cross code recruits for John Ferguson who was useful on Flat for William Jarvis in 2010, and has created favourable impression in landing all three hurdles starts, including when getting up late on from Ambion Wood (who has since given the form a nice boost) in Grade 2 at Warwick; Running a huge race when falling in the Neptune last time out and 3 miles didn’t shape as if a problem that time, so one of the main chances on form; The last 15 win-or-placed horses to run in that event all beaten here but extra week between Cheltenham and Aintree this year.

Ely Brown: Not discredited in two handicaps since winning at Doncaster in December, notably when second to Thehillofuisneach at Warwick in January 2012.

Fingal Bay: Marked down as a hurdler to follow when taking home to win Exeter bumper by 22 lengths and backed that up when easing home to win Grade 2 at Chepstow by 6 lengths, hurdling fluently throughout; Since followed that up with Grade 2 wins at Cheltenham and Sandown, looking like a machine on both occasions and beating 7 length Neptune winner Simonsig at Sandown; Missed Cheltenham with injury but that might prove a blessing; Flat to the boards to beat Ballyrock at Newbury last time but idled before stamina kicked in and sure to be even better at 3 miles; Only question is whether he’ll be at his peak for this event but sure to take the beating if so.

Forgotten Gold:  Second behind Harry The Viking quickly been boosted and followed that up with good win at Ludlow since; Third behind Barabtos also looking solid now but that leaves him a long way behind Fingal Bay on form struggled in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time.

Golden Call: Improving handicap hurdler who seems capable of better still  after second novicing win a month apart at Bangor latest; Best on good ground according to all form so drying condtions will help him and notable that he comes from top stable for a crack at this event.

Gullinbursti: Two from two over hurdles this season, winning at Exeter in good style before giving plenty of weight (a stone) and a beating to Grand Vision at Hereford; Unable to conceded the weight to Rocky Creek at Doncaster and only run out of things late on by Knock A Hand at Newbury; That gives him a good chance here.

Harry Topper: Quickly found his niche in staying events after being unable to keep up withquick flat types at Ascot after winning debut at Hereford; Impressive winner on first two hurdles starts before running into Brindisi Breeze at Haydock last time out in heavy ground; Bypassed by many but that form now couldn’t look stronger and needs respecting here.

Hawkes Point: Better than two disappointing efforts at beginning of the season when winning at Chepstow (next two won next time out) and good when runner-up in a Sandown handicap last month.

Ipsos Du Berlais: Followed up promising bumper win with easy maiden hurdle success and with that in mind, probably not suited by slowly run race when losing his unbeaten record in November; Seemed held by Boston Bob and Mount Benbulben on Navan form two starts back but impessive win since confirms his talent; Interesting on best form but disappointed at Festival and needs to come back from hard race he might have had this week.

Knock A Hand: Completed four timer with door Newbury win from improving novice Gullinbursti last time, his first win on a surface which was better than soft; Runner up had previously been second in Grade 2 giving weight, so that form looks solid and with more possibly left  to give has to make it onto the shortlist.

Lovcen:  Made promising enough hurdling debut (16 & ¼ lengths behind Rocky Creek) although he was clearly improved when landing Towcester novice by 17 lengths; Fell to early to tell what would have happened in Grade 2 at Doncaster but can’t fail to be anything but impressed with his Wincaton handicap hurdle win; Chance if he can repeat his excellent Cheltenham form but did have a hard race there.

Makethemostofnow: 3 lengths ahead of Lovcen in points; Has looked very good at Ffos Las on soft ground, winning easily carrying penalty to an easy win last time out; More than that needed today with conditions dying out quite rapidly.

Napgur: No wins from 18 in France but got the better of reopposing The Tracy Shuffle on second hurdle run and won handicap easily; Creditable enough run when sixth in the Neptune at Cheltenham.

Netminder: Pick of his soft ground form sees him just a length behind Brindisisi Breeze and followed that round with an easy soft ground win at Ayr; Bit of a worry that all of his soft ground form doesn’t match up to his Newcastle run on good and he’s also

Poole Master: Unbeaten in 3 easy ground novice hurdles before his disappointment in the Coral Cup; Made good headway into the middle of that race and looked set for a bold bid following the turn but faded badly in a manner that suggests he won't get 3 miles in the end.

Tap Night: Progressive in the north before winning Grade 2 at Kempton, beating Graded winner in Captaian Conan when winning the Premier Hurdle at Kelso last time out; Stayed on that day as if 3 miles wouldn’t be a problem and interesting here.

Catcherinscratcher: Had looked very useful when winning conditions events by 10 and 12 lengths respectively but those back in the summer and since been very disappointing; Mare who faces tough task against gledings.

VERDICT: This is a race that revolves around whether FINGAL BAY, who was so impressive when beating Neptune winner Simonsig at Sandown in December, shows his best form from a 104 day layoff. Missing Cheltenham has often been a blessing for this race (the last 4 winners all doing so) and he’s the clear class act in this field, although one couldn’t be overconfident. Cotton Mill is sure to have his chance if over the hard race he had a Cheltenham, when booked for second behind Simonsig in the Neptune, but it often pays to pick an outsider and HARRY TOPPER’s second behind Brindisi Breeze –albeit an easily beaten one - now looks like a top piece of form following the winner’s Albert Bartlett win at the Festival and 20/1 seems like an overly big price based on that form, with his propensity to handle the quicker ground condtions confirmed thanks to his useful bumper form. Ballyrock Is a big price too on Challow Hurdle form, although whether he’s going to handle ground that would have dried out is another matter. Gullinbursti and Knock A Hand also deserve major respect, with either looking like a solid each/way bet at big prices too.