John Smith's Topham Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (3.40) - As
competitive a renewal as ever, with three against the field taking the eye;
Bet365, Bet Victor, Stan James and Skybet will pay 5 places along with
888Sport. Little Josh has never run
across these fences but looks outstandingly handicapped on his Paddy Power Gold
Cup win in 2010 based on a mark of 146 (which sees him 1lb lower than he was at
Cheltenham). With only 5 runs since then, his mark has dropped from the 9lbs he
was raised to the 146 he runs off now, but barring his one failed effort to
complete in the Ascot Chase two starts back.
Immediately after his Paddy Power win (for which he was
raised 9lbs) Sam Twiston-Davies tried to repeat his heroics, but a mistake at
the second last put paid to what was a gallant front-running effort against some
classy rivals (Poquelin and Great Endeavour to name just two) who had come on for their outing in the Paddy
Power and good ones that that, while the jockeys were much more alert to the
potential march being stolen on them this time around. It was much the same story when he was a well
beaten fifth on trials day at Cheltenham although that has once again proven to
be a decent renewal with the first two being Wishfull Thinking and Calgary Bay. His three runs this season have all come in races too good
for him but he travelled well - indeed
he was one of the last to come off the bridle - when sixth in the Argento Chase
over a trip that he didn’t stay and with the ability still there based on his
runs this season, I see no reason why he can’t make a bold bid today.
The winner of this for the last 2 years, Always Waining has
been in no form since in his last 5 runs but things were the same coming into
his last two wins and he jumped the Becher course (on atrocious ground) well enough
to think that he retains all the ability that has seen him win so well on the
past two occasions, and he’s just 5lbs higher in the weights for his hat trick
bid today. Having been taken out of the National yesterday for a tilt at this,
he can reward his connections decision to take this route.
The only other horse to have on over these fences is Frankie
Figg, who was so impressive when winning the Sefton of 2010 and hasn’t quite found
the same form since. A horse who ususally saves his best form for this track,
he’s not had anything left for the end of his races here the last twice but the
Sefton Chase this season was run on ground close to unraceable, which explains
his exaggerated beaten distance, while he might simply have gone too fast when
sixth in last year’s renewal of this, as he was the outright leader off a
brutal pace – he was 5 lengths clear at Becher’s at Foinavon - which saw most
of the principals leading at halfway, as has been the trend with winners of
this race.
Favourite Triangualar deserves his position at the head of
the market based on his easy win at Newbury but it’s interesting to note how
Amigayle has a 13lbs pull for the admittedly heavy beating she really got that
day. Gonebeyondrecall is interesting based on his fourth in this race last year
and he’s now 6lbs lower, although he was well beaten into fourth and others are
preferred. Chance Du Roy has plied his trade in some excellent contests since winning
at Newbury on his comeback and is one that interests me while Apt Apporach
comes from a yard that loves having a good runner in this contest, and while he’s
done all his winning on soft ground, he was running a big race when coming down
at the last in a valuable Punchestown handicap chase which was won by
stablemate Scotsirish which was run on good ground less than a year ago; It was
hard to rule him out of calculations. If
he takes to things early in running, don’t be afraid to chance Tartak, who made
a step back in right direction on his debut for his new yard last time and has
more than enough class to win this at his best.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Little Josh, Always Waining, &
Frankie Figg (9/1 Stan James, 11/1 Stan James & 10/1 Bet365)
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