2.00 Newbury
sportingbet.com Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Feilden Hurdle) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Olofi (win)
Alegralil: Did well last season, for all that her form tailed off rather badly when stepped up in class; Rallied well to win listed event at Wetherby on reappearance and should be fitter for that but stiff mark may bring her down.
The Betchworth Kid: Very smart on the flat, running up to a mark of 104 and made a pleasing hurdles debut when grinding out a Plumpton novice Hurdle; Went on from that and comes to timber on the back of some really good efforts on the level so one to take seriously.
Tocca Ferro: Shaped better than the bare result all starts over hurdles last term; Duly took advantage of favourable mark when winning similar event at Ascot last month, cursing to front before just holding a late challenge; Up 8lbs but will progress again, although this a lot tougher.
Advisor: Was sent off only 8/1 for the Triumph Hurdle off the back of 2 very impressive wins in juvenile hurdles; Disappointed in that test (too tough for him) and on last start (Had been on the go, flat and jumps); Ground will suit and breathing op should help him but this a stiff mark.
Olofi: Took to hurdling last year (won twice,) and came up short of the best as a juvenile but pleasing return to action when only a nose behind Escort’Men first time out and ran well in Greatwood Hurdle last time; That gives him every chance here.
Circeron: Very impressive last spring, were he easily won his first 2 handicaps and was just a good way clear of the rest when he competed the hat-trick at Perth; Unable to cope with bigger handicaps since and hard to fancy given that he’s a bridle horse.
Dr Livingstone: Has run creditably in handicaps the last tice (building a little on quite useful novice form last year); More required if he’s to win this one with bette horses.
Forty Thirty: In frame 4 of 5 completed starts over hurdles this season, but poor run on flat before falling in Tocca Ferro’s ascot race and has a lot to prove.
Praxiteles: Won his third hurdles start in great style at Aintree in May, and didn’t need to run to that level to go in again at Ffos Las; Has more to offer in handicaps surely and not one to discount although this good deal stronger than last time.
Stormy Weather: Stayed on well when fifth behind Sancutaire (form has worked out well at a higher grade) and should be competitive here in that form; This is a tough race for him but he can mark his mark.
Kauto Relko: Shaped well on debut for this yard when third at Aintree last month but not fully cooperative next time out, and this race demands improvement from that.
Rebel Dancer: Won his first run over hurdles for this yard at Huntingdon and was disputing things with Nearby (dramatic improver who’s won twice since) when falling last time; Everything points to big run.
VERDICT: The blowout of the Supreme Novices Hurdle second Get Me Out Of Here ensured Tocca Ferro didn’t have an awful lot to beat at Ascot and a long straight won’t help him here either. OLOFI has run crackers on both starts this season and should take a big hand, while The Betchworh Kid is given serious respect, along with Stormy Weather. Rebel Dancer is the most feared outside the top 4.
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - Sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle
2.30 Newbury
Sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505 - 6 run
Big Bucks: Again sealed his title as undisputed staying hurdler in UK and Ireland with comprehensive win in the Liverpool Hurdle after bolting up in the Long Walk and World Hurdle; Hard to seriously oppose here.
Arcalis: Hasn’t won since 2007 and is unproven at more than 2m4f; Has run well in handicaps the last thrice but passed over.
Duc De Regniere :Posted very taking success in this 2 years and has since run some very solid races finding a good 2 lengths third to Big Bucks off 8lbs worse terms; Since made hay over fences, (winning twice); Disappointing return but should be fit and much the second best of these.
Duke Of Lucca: Got better with experience last season ,ending up with close enough seconds behind Peddlers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Aintree and Punchestown festivals; Ran poorly on reappearance but has form to make impression this year, although what trip is an unknown.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process;Ran solid race when second bhidn Fair Along and can do well again.
Spider Boy: Out of depth here and rated 80.
VERDICT: It’s very hard to seriously oppose BIG BUCK’S on his seasonal return, as he sets off to make history and win a third World Hurdle this season. Duc De Reginere is the one for the forecast in my mind, although Duke Of Lucca and Kayf Aramis will run good races.
Sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505 - 6 run
Big Bucks: Again sealed his title as undisputed staying hurdler in UK and Ireland with comprehensive win in the Liverpool Hurdle after bolting up in the Long Walk and World Hurdle; Hard to seriously oppose here.
Arcalis: Hasn’t won since 2007 and is unproven at more than 2m4f; Has run well in handicaps the last thrice but passed over.
Duc De Regniere :Posted very taking success in this 2 years and has since run some very solid races finding a good 2 lengths third to Big Bucks off 8lbs worse terms; Since made hay over fences, (winning twice); Disappointing return but should be fit and much the second best of these.
Duke Of Lucca: Got better with experience last season ,ending up with close enough seconds behind Peddlers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Aintree and Punchestown festivals; Ran poorly on reappearance but has form to make impression this year, although what trip is an unknown.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process;Ran solid race when second bhidn Fair Along and can do well again.
Spider Boy: Out of depth here and rated 80.
VERDICT: It’s very hard to seriously oppose BIG BUCK’S on his seasonal return, as he sets off to make history and win a third World Hurdle this season. Duc De Reginere is the one for the forecast in my mind, although Duke Of Lucca and Kayf Aramis will run good races.
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle
12.25 Newbury
StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309 - 5 run
Pick: Peddlers’ Cross (win)
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA rating), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in this race (5th) and the Christmas Hurdle (3rd); Will win this well at best but last season still fresh in memory and this no open goal.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Well beaten behind Peddlers Cross at Aintree last terms and looked seriously amiss when pulling up last time.
Nearby: Has made huge strides in handicap hurdles this season, round off an impressive hat-trick with excellent win in the Elite Hurdle, coming clear of some useful types; Should continue progressing but this steep rise in class.
Peedlers Cross: Changed hands for £100,000 after winning an Irish point at Liscaroll and has maintained peerless 100% record with wins in bumper at Haydock, novice hurdle at Bangor, Grade 2 at Haydock, Neptune investments Hurdle and Mersey Novice’s Hurdle last year; Massive potential and while this is toughest test yet, he looks to have speed to burn and well worth shot at this division.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native (flattered);5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year as an excellent run and will be much harder to beat with conditions tailored to his liking (goes well fresh; this track suits more than Cheltenham).
VERDICT: An excellent renewal and credit must be given to the BHA for moving the race quickly. Binocular will win this well if fit and on his best form, but he wasn’t right up until the Champion and it’s not easy to forget his blowouts in this and the Christmas Hurdle last season. With that in mind, it may be worth chancing PEDDLERS’ CROSS to make a serious mark in the Champion Hurdle division as he’s got the speed to burn and may well still have more to come, following a very impressive novice season. Starluck is the fly in the ointment with conditions tailored to his liking.
StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309 - 5 run
Pick: Peddlers’ Cross (win)
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA rating), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in this race (5th) and the Christmas Hurdle (3rd); Will win this well at best but last season still fresh in memory and this no open goal.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Well beaten behind Peddlers Cross at Aintree last terms and looked seriously amiss when pulling up last time.
Nearby: Has made huge strides in handicap hurdles this season, round off an impressive hat-trick with excellent win in the Elite Hurdle, coming clear of some useful types; Should continue progressing but this steep rise in class.
Peedlers Cross: Changed hands for £100,000 after winning an Irish point at Liscaroll and has maintained peerless 100% record with wins in bumper at Haydock, novice hurdle at Bangor, Grade 2 at Haydock, Neptune investments Hurdle and Mersey Novice’s Hurdle last year; Massive potential and while this is toughest test yet, he looks to have speed to burn and well worth shot at this division.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native (flattered);5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year as an excellent run and will be much harder to beat with conditions tailored to his liking (goes well fresh; this track suits more than Cheltenham).
VERDICT: An excellent renewal and credit must be given to the BHA for moving the race quickly. Binocular will win this well if fit and on his best form, but he wasn’t right up until the Champion and it’s not easy to forget his blowouts in this and the Christmas Hurdle last season. With that in mind, it may be worth chancing PEDDLERS’ CROSS to make a serious mark in the Champion Hurdle division as he’s got the speed to burn and may well still have more to come, following a very impressive novice season. Starluck is the fly in the ointment with conditions tailored to his liking.
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase 2010
3.05 Newbury
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £99,768
Pick: Pandorama (each/way)
Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win this last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display; Form has dipped below par since then which would give worries about an 8lbs higher mark but has had his excuses for that and this test should suit down to ground with rider that knows him on board (Sam Thomas); the one to beat.
Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago when last seen; Has dropped to a mark 10lbs lower than when third in the Gold Cup and best handicapped in field f he runs to full form; Not out of the question given that Paul Nicholls produced opposing Taranis to win Cotswold Chase from 3 years off, and major player.
Taranis: Horse of immense quality, as he has won the Ryanair Chase and the James Nicholson Chase, both coming nearly 4 years ago, and was brilliantly produced to land Argento Chase from a 3 year layoff; Races off a mark of 160 for that but well up to that standard and should run another big race.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl;Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and warmed up for this with a good second at Exeter; Could be miles well in off 158 and light-weight set to suit.
Silver By Nature: Did nothing but improve last season and won Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths; Was suited by absolute grind that day and this much tougher, so has it all to do.
Barbers Shop: Rapid improver and made huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup 2 years ago; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Ryanair run was disappointing (pulled up in Punchestown Gold Cup);Did nothing when seventh in Charlie Hall Chase and hard to fancy here.
Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Went on from that last season, coming fourth in Gold Cup and second in Totesport Bowl; Needed run badly at Ascot and while he will do better there, lot of competition on for the lead which will diminish his chances
The Tother One: The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season and while he made an excellent return last month, he was well weighted to do so and this is a lot tougher although 5lbs claimer Ryan Mahon will help him a lot.
Diamond Harry: Only beaten by Miakel D’Augenet as a novice hurdler, and slammed Burton Port giving him a stone in weight over brush hurdles; Quickly turned to chasing after coming solid third behind Big Bucks in Long Walk (rescheduled) and impressed majorly when winning on his debut, but made mistakes in scrappy win here, before error strewn round in the RSA Chase saw him pulled up; Easy to pick faults in jumping but he has only run over fences three times and the RSA likely came too soon for him; On very favourable mark and could take hand if jumping holds up.
Weird Al: Unbeaten over fences, having marked himself down a major RSA Chase candidate before injury with 2 impressive wins at Cheltenham before winning Towton Novice’s Chase; Came back from injury to dead heat with Little Josh in excellent run considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh; Every chance here.
Burton Port: One of most progressive and probably underrated novice chasers last season winning 5 times (including the December, Reynoldstown and Mildmay Chases) and coming second in the RSA Chase; Was given a mark of 158 for his Reynoldstown Chase win so technically well treated off 152 but he will have to be very food to win off that mark.
Dream Alliance: One of fairy-tale stories of last season when winning the Welsh Grand National after long lay-off (had stem cell treatment); Unable to progress from that after rise in weight however, and this likely to be too good for him.
Big Fella Thanks: Having finish sixth in the race as a novice, was aimed steadily at the Grand National all last year, picking up the Greatwood Gold Cup as a bonus; Came fourth in the National itself with excellent run, after which he left Nicholls yard; Made pleasing return on debut for Ferdy Murphy when only just failing for fitness when passed late on by Hey Big Spender at Carlisle (had cruised to front rather easily, and 3 lengths clear); Should be mush fitter for this and this race should suit down to the ground.
Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins here (over Fistral Beach) and Cheltenham on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Has the talent to do well this season but this might be a step too far.
Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 9 starts over rules, the only defeat coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Light weight will suit and should go well here, so one of major players.
Razor Royale: Always been there or thereabouts at this level and landed Racing Post Chase last season before good fourth in Scottish National; Better than result at Cheltenham last time out but 10lbs out of weights.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs but this not race for him.
VERDICT: As good a Hennessy as we’ve seen in recent years, with an established Gold Cup winner going for a historic third triumph up against 4 second season chasers of the highest class, and 2 established chasers with high class form. Everyone in racing will benefit if Denman wins for a third time and we’ll all be cheering him on, but 4/1 is a bit short given that he’s 8lbs higher than last year. Given that PANDORAMA beat the RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty I’m surprised he’s not shorter than Weird Al, Diamond Harry & Burton Port, despite their obvious ability. Weird Al ran an excellent race considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh. He would have won if fit and rates a big threat. Diamond Harry has a brilliant record fresh and rates a major player. Burton Port isn’t flashy or hyped but he’s good enough to take this. One worry is that he hasn’t met Pandorama, Weird Al and was trashed by Diamond Harry getting a stone in weight. He’s improved since then but he meets Diamond Harry on bad terms here given that race. You have all that and then 2 high class older chasers in the shape of Taranis and Neptune Collonges, who are both feasibly weighted. Neptune Collonges is at least 8lbs well in if fit, but it’s hard to imagine him being straight enough despite Paul Nicholls having brought Taranis back from a similar lay – off. Hey Big Spender & Big Fella Thanks are 2 very promising horses to be followed but today’s test might be too much. An outsider that may have been ignored is Madsion Du Berlais, who will love running off a low weight, and gets in off his real mark.
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £99,768
Pick: Pandorama (each/way)
Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win this last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display; Form has dipped below par since then which would give worries about an 8lbs higher mark but has had his excuses for that and this test should suit down to ground with rider that knows him on board (Sam Thomas); the one to beat.
Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago when last seen; Has dropped to a mark 10lbs lower than when third in the Gold Cup and best handicapped in field f he runs to full form; Not out of the question given that Paul Nicholls produced opposing Taranis to win Cotswold Chase from 3 years off, and major player.
Taranis: Horse of immense quality, as he has won the Ryanair Chase and the James Nicholson Chase, both coming nearly 4 years ago, and was brilliantly produced to land Argento Chase from a 3 year layoff; Races off a mark of 160 for that but well up to that standard and should run another big race.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl;Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and warmed up for this with a good second at Exeter; Could be miles well in off 158 and light-weight set to suit.
Silver By Nature: Did nothing but improve last season and won Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths; Was suited by absolute grind that day and this much tougher, so has it all to do.
Barbers Shop: Rapid improver and made huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup 2 years ago; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Ryanair run was disappointing (pulled up in Punchestown Gold Cup);Did nothing when seventh in Charlie Hall Chase and hard to fancy here.
Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Went on from that last season, coming fourth in Gold Cup and second in Totesport Bowl; Needed run badly at Ascot and while he will do better there, lot of competition on for the lead which will diminish his chances
The Tother One: The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season and while he made an excellent return last month, he was well weighted to do so and this is a lot tougher although 5lbs claimer Ryan Mahon will help him a lot.
Diamond Harry: Only beaten by Miakel D’Augenet as a novice hurdler, and slammed Burton Port giving him a stone in weight over brush hurdles; Quickly turned to chasing after coming solid third behind Big Bucks in Long Walk (rescheduled) and impressed majorly when winning on his debut, but made mistakes in scrappy win here, before error strewn round in the RSA Chase saw him pulled up; Easy to pick faults in jumping but he has only run over fences three times and the RSA likely came too soon for him; On very favourable mark and could take hand if jumping holds up.
Weird Al: Unbeaten over fences, having marked himself down a major RSA Chase candidate before injury with 2 impressive wins at Cheltenham before winning Towton Novice’s Chase; Came back from injury to dead heat with Little Josh in excellent run considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh; Every chance here.
Burton Port: One of most progressive and probably underrated novice chasers last season winning 5 times (including the December, Reynoldstown and Mildmay Chases) and coming second in the RSA Chase; Was given a mark of 158 for his Reynoldstown Chase win so technically well treated off 152 but he will have to be very food to win off that mark.
Dream Alliance: One of fairy-tale stories of last season when winning the Welsh Grand National after long lay-off (had stem cell treatment); Unable to progress from that after rise in weight however, and this likely to be too good for him.
Big Fella Thanks: Having finish sixth in the race as a novice, was aimed steadily at the Grand National all last year, picking up the Greatwood Gold Cup as a bonus; Came fourth in the National itself with excellent run, after which he left Nicholls yard; Made pleasing return on debut for Ferdy Murphy when only just failing for fitness when passed late on by Hey Big Spender at Carlisle (had cruised to front rather easily, and 3 lengths clear); Should be mush fitter for this and this race should suit down to the ground.
Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins here (over Fistral Beach) and Cheltenham on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Has the talent to do well this season but this might be a step too far.
Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 9 starts over rules, the only defeat coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Light weight will suit and should go well here, so one of major players.
Razor Royale: Always been there or thereabouts at this level and landed Racing Post Chase last season before good fourth in Scottish National; Better than result at Cheltenham last time out but 10lbs out of weights.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs but this not race for him.
VERDICT: As good a Hennessy as we’ve seen in recent years, with an established Gold Cup winner going for a historic third triumph up against 4 second season chasers of the highest class, and 2 established chasers with high class form. Everyone in racing will benefit if Denman wins for a third time and we’ll all be cheering him on, but 4/1 is a bit short given that he’s 8lbs higher than last year. Given that PANDORAMA beat the RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty I’m surprised he’s not shorter than Weird Al, Diamond Harry & Burton Port, despite their obvious ability. Weird Al ran an excellent race considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh. He would have won if fit and rates a big threat. Diamond Harry has a brilliant record fresh and rates a major player. Burton Port isn’t flashy or hyped but he’s good enough to take this. One worry is that he hasn’t met Pandorama, Weird Al and was trashed by Diamond Harry getting a stone in weight. He’s improved since then but he meets Diamond Harry on bad terms here given that race. You have all that and then 2 high class older chasers in the shape of Taranis and Neptune Collonges, who are both feasibly weighted. Neptune Collonges is at least 8lbs well in if fit, but it’s hard to imagine him being straight enough despite Paul Nicholls having brought Taranis back from a similar lay – off. Hey Big Spender & Big Fella Thanks are 2 very promising horses to be followed but today’s test might be too much. An outsider that may have been ignored is Madsion Du Berlais, who will love running off a low weight, and gets in off his real mark.
Thursday, 25 November 2010
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle
12.30 Newbury
Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle (Class 3) (3YO only)
Winner £6,505
Pick: Dolatulo (win)
Dolatulo: Impressed when winning by 6 lengths on final French start and continued in same vein when winning by 23 lengths in a demolition job at Sandown; Could be very smart indeed and standout here.
Cuts Both Ways: Never looks like stayer on the flat and only rated 52.
Megilo Ancora: Never dangerous when fourth to Dolatulo on hurdling debut at Sandown; Entitled to build on that, but faces another uphill task to reverse form.
Missionaire: Just about best of these on flat (earned a mark of 83 for his 11 length Epsom handicap win); Booking of Denis O’Regan given encouragement and if straightforward enough, could get involved.
Professor Emery: Not given hard time when sixth of 8 at Kempton last month and Will do better with that experience behind him (Related to plenty of winners in native France); Market will tell all.
Smad Place: Comes to top stable having been runner-up on second of starts over hurdles in French Provinces; Already has experience over hurdles and if straight enough here, likely to go well (possibly improving given French form)
Joan’s Legacy: Little worthwhile form on Flat, and far from sure to stay the trip over hurdles, so up against it.
On Khee: Posses enough ability to make a mark in this sphere (progressive earlier in season; won twice on flat) and comes from good yard for this test; Not discounted.
VERDICT: It will be fascinating to see how DOLATULO does following on from his demolition job at Sandown, and another impressive performance will have people talking of the Triumph. On Khee, Professor Emery and especially Smad Place could all be useful and will get involved if they are good enough receiving weight.
Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle (Class 3) (3YO only)
Winner £6,505
Pick: Dolatulo (win)
Dolatulo: Impressed when winning by 6 lengths on final French start and continued in same vein when winning by 23 lengths in a demolition job at Sandown; Could be very smart indeed and standout here.
Cuts Both Ways: Never looks like stayer on the flat and only rated 52.
Megilo Ancora: Never dangerous when fourth to Dolatulo on hurdling debut at Sandown; Entitled to build on that, but faces another uphill task to reverse form.
Missionaire: Just about best of these on flat (earned a mark of 83 for his 11 length Epsom handicap win); Booking of Denis O’Regan given encouragement and if straightforward enough, could get involved.
Professor Emery: Not given hard time when sixth of 8 at Kempton last month and Will do better with that experience behind him (Related to plenty of winners in native France); Market will tell all.
Smad Place: Comes to top stable having been runner-up on second of starts over hurdles in French Provinces; Already has experience over hurdles and if straight enough here, likely to go well (possibly improving given French form)
Joan’s Legacy: Little worthwhile form on Flat, and far from sure to stay the trip over hurdles, so up against it.
On Khee: Posses enough ability to make a mark in this sphere (progressive earlier in season; won twice on flat) and comes from good yard for this test; Not discounted.
VERDICT: It will be fascinating to see how DOLATULO does following on from his demolition job at Sandown, and another impressive performance will have people talking of the Triumph. On Khee, Professor Emery and especially Smad Place could all be useful and will get involved if they are good enough receiving weight.
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - Fuller's London Pride Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
2.10 Newbury
Fuller's London Pride Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,538
Pick: Celestial Halo (win)
On Borrowed Wings: Improved a lot for switch to this yard over hurdles last season (won twice, second once, and beaten into eighth at Cheltenham Festival); Made a winning chasing debut at Stratford last month and while he did that well, giving 7lbs looks like a tall task.
Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who is the top rated chasing recruit this season; Looked set to win umped soundly prior to falling 4 out on chase debut at Exeter last month, and while that dents confidence, should have learned a lot from that so rates the one to beat.
Cois Farraig: Performed with credit when second to high class Nicky Henderson pair Lush Life and Oscar Whisky, and jumped well and shaped as if he’d be better for the race when third on chase debut at Ascot last time (decent pair in front); Has it to do ion stronger race but comes here prepared.
Erzen: Talented (Won first 2 starts over hurdles for Nicky Henderson and was second to decent handicappers last season); Attitude proved a major problem though and while he’s still got time to improve, attitude is worry and this deep end for debut.
Sprit River: Developed into a very talented hurdler last season, and showed his class when romping home in Coral Cup at Cheltenham Festival; Very exciting chasing prospect and should go well here if ready on debut.
VERDICT: A small but talented field turning out for a good novice’s chase, which has been won by Denman in 2006. Coral Cup winner Sprit River is a exciting prospect for fences and should do well here, but so is CELESTIAL HALO who should have learned plenty from falling at Exeter first time and will be fitter for it too.
Fuller's London Pride Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,538
Pick: Celestial Halo (win)
On Borrowed Wings: Improved a lot for switch to this yard over hurdles last season (won twice, second once, and beaten into eighth at Cheltenham Festival); Made a winning chasing debut at Stratford last month and while he did that well, giving 7lbs looks like a tall task.
Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who is the top rated chasing recruit this season; Looked set to win umped soundly prior to falling 4 out on chase debut at Exeter last month, and while that dents confidence, should have learned a lot from that so rates the one to beat.
Cois Farraig: Performed with credit when second to high class Nicky Henderson pair Lush Life and Oscar Whisky, and jumped well and shaped as if he’d be better for the race when third on chase debut at Ascot last time (decent pair in front); Has it to do ion stronger race but comes here prepared.
Erzen: Talented (Won first 2 starts over hurdles for Nicky Henderson and was second to decent handicappers last season); Attitude proved a major problem though and while he’s still got time to improve, attitude is worry and this deep end for debut.
Sprit River: Developed into a very talented hurdler last season, and showed his class when romping home in Coral Cup at Cheltenham Festival; Very exciting chasing prospect and should go well here if ready on debut.
VERDICT: A small but talented field turning out for a good novice’s chase, which has been won by Denman in 2006. Coral Cup winner Sprit River is a exciting prospect for fences and should do well here, but so is CELESTIAL HALO who should have learned plenty from falling at Exeter first time and will be fitter for it too.
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - Ante - Post Advice
The Arkle is one of the hardest races to solve ante - post. There are the class acts who are hurdling, along with the pure chasing types and many will come out of the woodwork over the season.
This year's picture is as clouded as any, with poor jumping from Merdermit & Celestial Halo in particular (the pair rather than just Celestial Halo) giving them an unconvincing look at this stage, with the others at the head of the market yet to run. I want to see Ghizao again before I put him up (or down for that matter) although he's achieved the most so far by virtue of his win at Cheltenham.
I've already advised a back of FINIAN'S RAINBOW and there's no reason why he can't make serious headway in this division. His prices range from 16/1 (Paddy Power) - 25/1 (Coral) which are perfectly fair even given the fact that he hasn't jumped a fence in public; He wasn't far away from the very best as a novice hurdler during sone stiff tests over 2m5f last season, only just failing to win the Challow (mistake 2 out cost him race) and he was traveling well until failing to fully stay 2m5f in the Baring Bingham.
The RSA already has the look of a quality renewal. Impressive wins from Time For Rupert & Wayward Prince at the Open Meeting along with nice wins from dark horses Robinson Collonges, Jessies's Dream and Wymott, have set a few main contenders in stone.
TELL MASSINI was arguably the best of these over hurdles and has been advised to beat a strong field tomorrow; He handles Cheltenham and will shorten strongly if he does so, and as such the advice given is to get on before he runs.
There's the proviso that both might lose, and no field is a walkover for either but they should have enough in hand to win their races.
Arkle Chase
Back Finian's Rainbow each/way from 16/1 (Paddy Power) - 25/1 (Coral)
RSA
Back Tell Massini each/way from 10/1 (Skybet) - 14/1 (Coral)
This year's picture is as clouded as any, with poor jumping from Merdermit & Celestial Halo in particular (the pair rather than just Celestial Halo) giving them an unconvincing look at this stage, with the others at the head of the market yet to run. I want to see Ghizao again before I put him up (or down for that matter) although he's achieved the most so far by virtue of his win at Cheltenham.
I've already advised a back of FINIAN'S RAINBOW and there's no reason why he can't make serious headway in this division. His prices range from 16/1 (Paddy Power) - 25/1 (Coral) which are perfectly fair even given the fact that he hasn't jumped a fence in public; He wasn't far away from the very best as a novice hurdler during sone stiff tests over 2m5f last season, only just failing to win the Challow (mistake 2 out cost him race) and he was traveling well until failing to fully stay 2m5f in the Baring Bingham.
The RSA already has the look of a quality renewal. Impressive wins from Time For Rupert & Wayward Prince at the Open Meeting along with nice wins from dark horses Robinson Collonges, Jessies's Dream and Wymott, have set a few main contenders in stone.
TELL MASSINI was arguably the best of these over hurdles and has been advised to beat a strong field tomorrow; He handles Cheltenham and will shorten strongly if he does so, and as such the advice given is to get on before he runs.
There's the proviso that both might lose, and no field is a walkover for either but they should have enough in hand to win their races.
Arkle Chase
Back Finian's Rainbow each/way from 16/1 (Paddy Power) - 25/1 (Coral)
RSA
Back Tell Massini each/way from 10/1 (Skybet) - 14/1 (Coral)
Wednesday, 24 November 2010
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - GPG Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Worcester Novices' Chase)
3.15 Newbury
GPG Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Worcester Novices' Chase) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,538
Pick: Tell Massni (win)
Swincome Rock: Always looked a chaser and has proven it with 2 wide margin wins at Perth and Huntingdon, the first coming in a handicap; Had to make relatively hard work of things before drawing away last time, and while he did it well he’s possibly vulnerable giving 3lbs and upwards to others.
Tell Massini: Was the leading novice hurdler of last year, despite his blowout in the Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle (bacterial infection), winning a pair of Grade 2 races with ease; Made great start to fences when easing to victory at Stratford (jumped very well in main)and one to beat here.
Aiteenthirtythree: Showed a lot of promise last season when coming third, second and second again over hurdles (one of those a loss to Be There In Five, who reopposes on 7lbs better terms today); Improved attitude saw him break his duck over hurdles, and should do well here.
Be There In Five: Created good impression when winning 2 of 3 hurdles starts last term, beating Aiteen Thirtythree a neck here for second win; Meets that rival on 7lbs better terms and may well make presence felt at good weights.
Vormar Two: Made up into very useful hurdler last season with 2 wide margin wins at Tottenham so disappointing in that respect that he could never make a mark in the Sefton Novice’s Hurdle ; Given considerate debut at Exeter and will improve off that, but this is a much harder test.
VERDICT: A cracking race where every horse looks like a decent prospect who can be given a chance. Be There In Five is given serious respect meeting Aiteenthirtythree on 7lbs better terms than for their last meeting (he won by a neck) but TELL MASSINI was clear over hurdles and has fitness and race experience on his side. He’s got more to come and can mark himself down as a major RSA contender.
GPG Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Worcester Novices' Chase) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,538
Pick: Tell Massni (win)
Swincome Rock: Always looked a chaser and has proven it with 2 wide margin wins at Perth and Huntingdon, the first coming in a handicap; Had to make relatively hard work of things before drawing away last time, and while he did it well he’s possibly vulnerable giving 3lbs and upwards to others.
Tell Massini: Was the leading novice hurdler of last year, despite his blowout in the Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle (bacterial infection), winning a pair of Grade 2 races with ease; Made great start to fences when easing to victory at Stratford (jumped very well in main)and one to beat here.
Aiteenthirtythree: Showed a lot of promise last season when coming third, second and second again over hurdles (one of those a loss to Be There In Five, who reopposes on 7lbs better terms today); Improved attitude saw him break his duck over hurdles, and should do well here.
Be There In Five: Created good impression when winning 2 of 3 hurdles starts last term, beating Aiteen Thirtythree a neck here for second win; Meets that rival on 7lbs better terms and may well make presence felt at good weights.
Vormar Two: Made up into very useful hurdler last season with 2 wide margin wins at Tottenham so disappointing in that respect that he could never make a mark in the Sefton Novice’s Hurdle ; Given considerate debut at Exeter and will improve off that, but this is a much harder test.
VERDICT: A cracking race where every horse looks like a decent prospect who can be given a chance. Be There In Five is given serious respect meeting Aiteenthirtythree on 7lbs better terms than for their last meeting (he won by a neck) but TELL MASSINI was clear over hurdles and has fitness and race experience on his side. He’s got more to come and can mark himself down as a major RSA contender.
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - Rooney/Hall Novices' Chase
1.35 Newbury
Rooney/hall Novices' Chase (Class 3) (4YO plus)
Winner £6,262
Pick: Finian’s Rainbow (win)
Hell’s Bay: Ran with credit when giving class hurdler Time For Rupert 5lbs when second in very good novice chase at Cheltenham Open Meeting; Appeared to excel himself that day but Sam Twiston Davies gets to take 3lbs off, so should do well.
Finian’s Rainbow: Showed massive potential when winning 2 of 4 hurdles starts last season, and ran big races in the Challow Hurdle and Neptune Investments hurdle, travelling well but just not seeing out 2m5f; Looked chaser in waiting and this looks perfect start for him.
Sang Bleu: Won on the Flat at Chateaubriant in September and within a month made a successful start to his hurdling career at Auteuil; Only ran twice over hurdles but no shame in being passed aside by Me Voici on debut (Finale Hurdle) and good effort considering he hit 1st and 4th to give 8lbs and a beating to Starts Du Granite on his last run; Should do well chasing, and accorded a lot of respect.
VERDICT: Just the three just line up for this novices' chase but there is no shortage of quality among the trio. FINIAN’S RAINBOW looked like a chaser in waiting when emptying late after travelling like a dream in the Baring Bingham, and has been the subject of a lot of positive vibes leading up into the 2010/2011 NH season. Sang Bleu was always going to do better with time and should do well chasing, while Hell’s Bay should still be around at the finish.
Rooney/hall Novices' Chase (Class 3) (4YO plus)
Winner £6,262
Pick: Finian’s Rainbow (win)
Hell’s Bay: Ran with credit when giving class hurdler Time For Rupert 5lbs when second in very good novice chase at Cheltenham Open Meeting; Appeared to excel himself that day but Sam Twiston Davies gets to take 3lbs off, so should do well.
Finian’s Rainbow: Showed massive potential when winning 2 of 4 hurdles starts last season, and ran big races in the Challow Hurdle and Neptune Investments hurdle, travelling well but just not seeing out 2m5f; Looked chaser in waiting and this looks perfect start for him.
Sang Bleu: Won on the Flat at Chateaubriant in September and within a month made a successful start to his hurdling career at Auteuil; Only ran twice over hurdles but no shame in being passed aside by Me Voici on debut (Finale Hurdle) and good effort considering he hit 1st and 4th to give 8lbs and a beating to Starts Du Granite on his last run; Should do well chasing, and accorded a lot of respect.
VERDICT: Just the three just line up for this novices' chase but there is no shortage of quality among the trio. FINIAN’S RAINBOW looked like a chaser in waiting when emptying late after travelling like a dream in the Baring Bingham, and has been the subject of a lot of positive vibes leading up into the 2010/2011 NH season. Sang Bleu was always going to do better with time and should do well chasing, while Hell’s Bay should still be around at the finish.
Newbury Hennessy Meeting - E.B.F. Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle
1.00 Newbury
E.B.F. Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) (4YO plus)
Winner £6,505
Pick: Line Freedom (win)
Sparky May: Improved when following up Worcester win with something in hand at Lingfield last time looking as if a longer trip would improve her; Should go well although this tougher task.
Alverstone: Improved a lot in the jumping department when opening hurdling account over 3m at Chepstow last month, romping home by 14 lengths; Impossible to know what exactly she achieved when doing so and interesting to see how she will cope with drop down in trip.
Annimation: Showed likeable attitude when winning bumper and again game in recovering from mistake 3 out when just getting better of Naughty Naughty on seasonal debut; Was receiving nearly a stone from runner up, so has it all to do in this company.
Line Freedom: Unfortunately failed to really make mark over bumpers but had started out with 22 length win on debut (seemingly injured after) and ran sound race when just failing to give 7lbs to runner up over final bumper start; Back on track when making impressive winning start over hurdles at Towcester recently and worth chance here.
Fillyofthevalley: Well held both starts in bumpers in 2007 and fared no better on sole hurdling start in April.
Hill Forts Gloria: Has made the frame on both hurdles starts, and needs to take big step forward to match four previous winners here, even if improving for step up in trip (and gets weight off 4 main contenders).
Old Dungarvan: Big price/green when soundly beaten in weaker event at Lingfield on debut recently.
VERDICT: All the makings of a tight race here with 4 previous winners. Alverstone will be a popular choice to follow up a romp at Chepstow but it’ll be interesting to see how she copes with a drop in trip and the 'bounce' factor (that was her first run since December last year). Useful bumper performer LINE FREEDOM made a bright start to her hurdling career when scoring gamely over 2m at Towcester (second won since) and should take the beating here with that under her belt. Sparky May and Annimation add further spice to a good race.
E.B.F. Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) (4YO plus)
Winner £6,505
Pick: Line Freedom (win)
Sparky May: Improved when following up Worcester win with something in hand at Lingfield last time looking as if a longer trip would improve her; Should go well although this tougher task.
Alverstone: Improved a lot in the jumping department when opening hurdling account over 3m at Chepstow last month, romping home by 14 lengths; Impossible to know what exactly she achieved when doing so and interesting to see how she will cope with drop down in trip.
Annimation: Showed likeable attitude when winning bumper and again game in recovering from mistake 3 out when just getting better of Naughty Naughty on seasonal debut; Was receiving nearly a stone from runner up, so has it all to do in this company.
Line Freedom: Unfortunately failed to really make mark over bumpers but had started out with 22 length win on debut (seemingly injured after) and ran sound race when just failing to give 7lbs to runner up over final bumper start; Back on track when making impressive winning start over hurdles at Towcester recently and worth chance here.
Fillyofthevalley: Well held both starts in bumpers in 2007 and fared no better on sole hurdling start in April.
Hill Forts Gloria: Has made the frame on both hurdles starts, and needs to take big step forward to match four previous winners here, even if improving for step up in trip (and gets weight off 4 main contenders).
Old Dungarvan: Big price/green when soundly beaten in weaker event at Lingfield on debut recently.
VERDICT: All the makings of a tight race here with 4 previous winners. Alverstone will be a popular choice to follow up a romp at Chepstow but it’ll be interesting to see how she copes with a drop in trip and the 'bounce' factor (that was her first run since December last year). Useful bumper performer LINE FREEDOM made a bright start to her hurdling career when scoring gamely over 2m at Towcester (second won since) and should take the beating here with that under her belt. Sparky May and Annimation add further spice to a good race.
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Ladbrokes Troytown Chase 2010
The Ladbrokes Troytown Chase is one of the top handicap chases all year in Ireland, although it’s generally a very messy event, with most of the contenders unable to come in off the back of a good run.
Based on the stats you’re looking for a horse aged 7 or 8, carrying 10-9 or less, officially rated 118 to 138 that finished in the first 4 on last completed outing, ran in the last 30 days, has won over 2M 6F+, is a Course winner, has run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than ), Contested a graded chase and is a Second season chaser priced 10/1 or below.
As a 7 year old that won last time out running off a mark of 127, GOT ATTITUDE hits more trends than most and makes the most appeal of those left after trend shifting. He put up a good battling performance when we won at Galway towards the end of October and he shouldn't have any trouble with the heavy ground whilst a stiff track like Navan should bring out his best.
The only other that makes real appeal is ACROSS THE BAY, who looked a bright chasing prospect last term, winning on his debut in this sphere at Naas in February and has come runner-up on both completed starts since, including in a Grade 2 last time out. He’s still unexposed and can go well here.
Of the others, Arbour Supreme is of major interest but 2008 winner Notre Pere was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup, a stat which would also take out Moskova & Siegemaster.
Hold The Pin, Jack The Bus, Will Jamie Run, and Lochan Lacha are all too old according to trends, while I think that Glenquest is an overrated favourite and For A Finish hasn’t beaten anything of real note in his last 2 wins and maybe just so high in the market because he’s won his last 2.
Recommendations
1 pt each/way Got Attitude (10/1 William Hill, Skybet)
1 pt each/way Across The Bay (12/1 William Hill, Skybet, Bet365)
Based on the stats you’re looking for a horse aged 7 or 8, carrying 10-9 or less, officially rated 118 to 138 that finished in the first 4 on last completed outing, ran in the last 30 days, has won over 2M 6F+, is a Course winner, has run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than ), Contested a graded chase and is a Second season chaser priced 10/1 or below.
As a 7 year old that won last time out running off a mark of 127, GOT ATTITUDE hits more trends than most and makes the most appeal of those left after trend shifting. He put up a good battling performance when we won at Galway towards the end of October and he shouldn't have any trouble with the heavy ground whilst a stiff track like Navan should bring out his best.
The only other that makes real appeal is ACROSS THE BAY, who looked a bright chasing prospect last term, winning on his debut in this sphere at Naas in February and has come runner-up on both completed starts since, including in a Grade 2 last time out. He’s still unexposed and can go well here.
Of the others, Arbour Supreme is of major interest but 2008 winner Notre Pere was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup, a stat which would also take out Moskova & Siegemaster.
Hold The Pin, Jack The Bus, Will Jamie Run, and Lochan Lacha are all too old according to trends, while I think that Glenquest is an overrated favourite and For A Finish hasn’t beaten anything of real note in his last 2 wins and maybe just so high in the market because he’s won his last 2.
Recommendations
1 pt each/way Got Attitude (10/1 William Hill, Skybet)
1 pt each/way Across The Bay (12/1 William Hill, Skybet, Bet365)
Totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase 2010
1.45 Aintree
totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase (Listed) (National Course) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £56,330
Picks: Maljimar & Merigo (each/way)
Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season but mark has dropped to very workable one and shaped well over inadequate trip on reappearance.
Gullible Gordon: Was a useful hurdler and has been making more progress over fences of late, coming here on the back of a career-best effort when beating Ballyvesey with ease at Wincanton last month; This is harder and does need to take to the fences, so up against it although improving.
Maljimar: Has always threated to land a top handicap chase, coming closest in the 2009 William Hill Trophy when just ground down by Wichita Lineman in the last strides; Had relatively good season last year and was going well when falling at Becher’s second time round in the National; On same mark here and every chance.
Whatuthink: Good hurdler at his best, his best effort a World Hurdle third; Looked like he had a future at this level when third in the Irish National and good chances with 7lbs claimer on board if running to that level but this is tough race and possible jumping concerns.
One Cool Cookie: Has come no better than well ebaten fifth in past 5 runs and hard to see where he’s going to find the form from; Front running could light him back up though, as he is a prominently-ridden sort who is versatile in terms of trip and ground,
Meanus Dandy: Improved a lot for first time blinkers and fitness when landing the Badger Ales Trophy with improved attitude and good round of jumping; Major claims on that performance but he has never won on anything slower than good and he’s up 12lbs in a much better race.
Merigo: An excellent handicap chaser on his day, as he showed when winning the Scottish National by 9 lengths on his final starts last season; Major claims on that form and recent hurdles run should have sharpened him up, so every chance here.
I’moncloudnine: Has won 5 times over fences, the last of those coming off a 10bs lower mark; Is 12lbs better off with Meanus Dandy from their meeting last time, but that was for a 22 lengths beating and this is a stronger race in general.
Hello Bud: Has become a National specialist of late, winning three including the Scottish one in 20008/9, and then running a career best to come fifth in the Grand National last season; Has now dropped to a mark 7lbs lower, and rates the best handicapped on that evidence.
Irish Raptor: Has the form to win this on his best day, as he’s lower than when winning the Topham Chase but is 66U in this and doesn’t seem at the peak of his powers anymore.
Newman Des Plagues: Returned in fine heart when rallying back to record game victory at Carlisle, beating odds on shot by 5 lengths; 10lb rise for that seems just about fair but hard to know if he reproduces that effort; Better race today.
Midnight Gold: Has been in good heart this year, winning over 3m at Ffos Las in April and June and adding placed efforts Bangor and Ffos Las to that; Looked amiss when pulled up last time and in any case, ground may be too slow if back to best.
Minister Shadow: Has been running well of late (apart from Eclipse at Perth 2 starts back) and came back with a solid Carlisle second, although he’s 5lbs higher for that (only a 2 lengths defeat; modest race) and needs more having not won since landing a brace of novice chases in 2007/8.
Royal Rosa: Ran good races on all completed races last year, coming third in this race off a 5lbs higher mark; No wins since 2006 but has been running well of late and made pleasing reappearance here last time out, and should be fitter on a course he likes.
Pak Jack: Is a safe jumper and will get round (placed 4 times over these fences alone) and does come here 6lbs lower than when 5th in the Topham Chase, but weak finisher and stamina has to be a worry.
Ballyvesey: Lost little in defeat behind Gullible Gordon at Wincanton but well beaten in smaller event and tough task on ground slower than ideal, from out of the handicap.
Au Courant: Is miles lower in the handicap then when well beaten in Topham or promising third behind Big Fella Thanks and Pasco at Newbury, but has shown no encouragement in 3 runs since leaving Nicky Henderson's yard and stamina to prove.
VERDICT: A key National Trial which is usually won by an 8-10 year old with strong stamina & sure footed jumping. The horses who appeal most to me for the National at this stage are MERIGO and MALJIMAR, both classy horses who are sure footed jumpers and have excellent stamina. Merigo looked tailor made for this when romping home in the Scottish National, while Maljimar has always threated to land a huge pot in this sphere. Somehow Hello Bud is 7lbs lower than when running a bold fifth in the National last season, and he’s the best handicapped horse in the field on that basis, making him the alternative should either Merigo or Maljimar be dropped. Despite useful up and coming horses in the shape of Gullible Gordon and Meanus Dandy being around, the main threat is probably Notre Pere; He’s a class act and he won the 2008 Welsh National off 1lb higher than his current mark of 151, not to mention the fact that he will be well suited by forcing the pace and revels in soft ground.
totesport.com Becher Handicap Chase (Listed) (National Course) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £56,330
Picks: Maljimar & Merigo (each/way)
Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season but mark has dropped to very workable one and shaped well over inadequate trip on reappearance.
Gullible Gordon: Was a useful hurdler and has been making more progress over fences of late, coming here on the back of a career-best effort when beating Ballyvesey with ease at Wincanton last month; This is harder and does need to take to the fences, so up against it although improving.
Maljimar: Has always threated to land a top handicap chase, coming closest in the 2009 William Hill Trophy when just ground down by Wichita Lineman in the last strides; Had relatively good season last year and was going well when falling at Becher’s second time round in the National; On same mark here and every chance.
Whatuthink: Good hurdler at his best, his best effort a World Hurdle third; Looked like he had a future at this level when third in the Irish National and good chances with 7lbs claimer on board if running to that level but this is tough race and possible jumping concerns.
One Cool Cookie: Has come no better than well ebaten fifth in past 5 runs and hard to see where he’s going to find the form from; Front running could light him back up though, as he is a prominently-ridden sort who is versatile in terms of trip and ground,
Meanus Dandy: Improved a lot for first time blinkers and fitness when landing the Badger Ales Trophy with improved attitude and good round of jumping; Major claims on that performance but he has never won on anything slower than good and he’s up 12lbs in a much better race.
Merigo: An excellent handicap chaser on his day, as he showed when winning the Scottish National by 9 lengths on his final starts last season; Major claims on that form and recent hurdles run should have sharpened him up, so every chance here.
I’moncloudnine: Has won 5 times over fences, the last of those coming off a 10bs lower mark; Is 12lbs better off with Meanus Dandy from their meeting last time, but that was for a 22 lengths beating and this is a stronger race in general.
Hello Bud: Has become a National specialist of late, winning three including the Scottish one in 20008/9, and then running a career best to come fifth in the Grand National last season; Has now dropped to a mark 7lbs lower, and rates the best handicapped on that evidence.
Irish Raptor: Has the form to win this on his best day, as he’s lower than when winning the Topham Chase but is 66U in this and doesn’t seem at the peak of his powers anymore.
Newman Des Plagues: Returned in fine heart when rallying back to record game victory at Carlisle, beating odds on shot by 5 lengths; 10lb rise for that seems just about fair but hard to know if he reproduces that effort; Better race today.
Midnight Gold: Has been in good heart this year, winning over 3m at Ffos Las in April and June and adding placed efforts Bangor and Ffos Las to that; Looked amiss when pulled up last time and in any case, ground may be too slow if back to best.
Minister Shadow: Has been running well of late (apart from Eclipse at Perth 2 starts back) and came back with a solid Carlisle second, although he’s 5lbs higher for that (only a 2 lengths defeat; modest race) and needs more having not won since landing a brace of novice chases in 2007/8.
Royal Rosa: Ran good races on all completed races last year, coming third in this race off a 5lbs higher mark; No wins since 2006 but has been running well of late and made pleasing reappearance here last time out, and should be fitter on a course he likes.
Pak Jack: Is a safe jumper and will get round (placed 4 times over these fences alone) and does come here 6lbs lower than when 5th in the Topham Chase, but weak finisher and stamina has to be a worry.
Ballyvesey: Lost little in defeat behind Gullible Gordon at Wincanton but well beaten in smaller event and tough task on ground slower than ideal, from out of the handicap.
Au Courant: Is miles lower in the handicap then when well beaten in Topham or promising third behind Big Fella Thanks and Pasco at Newbury, but has shown no encouragement in 3 runs since leaving Nicky Henderson's yard and stamina to prove.
VERDICT: A key National Trial which is usually won by an 8-10 year old with strong stamina & sure footed jumping. The horses who appeal most to me for the National at this stage are MERIGO and MALJIMAR, both classy horses who are sure footed jumpers and have excellent stamina. Merigo looked tailor made for this when romping home in the Scottish National, while Maljimar has always threated to land a huge pot in this sphere. Somehow Hello Bud is 7lbs lower than when running a bold fifth in the National last season, and he’s the best handicapped horse in the field on that basis, making him the alternative should either Merigo or Maljimar be dropped. Despite useful up and coming horses in the shape of Gullible Gordon and Meanus Dandy being around, the main threat is probably Notre Pere; He’s a class act and he won the 2008 Welsh National off 1lb higher than his current mark of 151, not to mention the fact that he will be well suited by forcing the pace and revels in soft ground.
Friends Of Navan 'Monksfield' Novice Hurdle 2010
1.05 Navan
Friends Of Navan 'Monksfield' Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €27,300
Pick: Seafield (win)
Aughnacurraveel: Good form in bumpers and 2-2 hurdling so far, proving 4 lengths too good for Sizing Mexico (winner since) at Fairyhouse last time; Had to give away 6lbs to that horse, and should have excellent chance today.
Bacher Boy: Has taken a while to click over hurdles but looked progressive before blowout at Killarney last time out, scoring over this trip at Gowran and Bellewstown during the summer; Could well be good enough if back on right track, so respected.
Ballyburke: Looked like sure fire winner over hurdles when scoring impressively in bumper in February, so disappointing even taking inexperience into account when beaten 15 lengths into third on hurdling debut; Entitled to improve but needs to do so.
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle last month (over this trip); Should step forward again and make presence felt here.
Gift Of Dgab: Made eye-catching debut at Fairyhouse in April and ran another sound race on return at Down Royal (both over 2m); Should take another step forward for experience and fitness, so another one with a chance.
He’s Our Man: Made decent start to life over hurdles when fourth of 14 to Oscars Well in a Punchestown maiden hurdle over this trip; Should make improvement although few similar types here in a better race.
Seafield: Showed plenty of promise in bumpers and readily built on that when grinding down useful Datokepe, showing immense promise on his hurdling debut; Trip was too short (half brother to Joncol) and organised himself remarkably well over hurdles for a horse that’s 17 hands; Will love the cut and every chance.
VERDICT: A useful race in which every horse can be given a realistic shot. None showed more scope than SEAFIELD, who showed immense promise when getting up over a trip that is surely too short for him at Punchestown last time.
Friends Of Navan 'Monksfield' Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €27,300
Pick: Seafield (win)
Aughnacurraveel: Good form in bumpers and 2-2 hurdling so far, proving 4 lengths too good for Sizing Mexico (winner since) at Fairyhouse last time; Had to give away 6lbs to that horse, and should have excellent chance today.
Bacher Boy: Has taken a while to click over hurdles but looked progressive before blowout at Killarney last time out, scoring over this trip at Gowran and Bellewstown during the summer; Could well be good enough if back on right track, so respected.
Ballyburke: Looked like sure fire winner over hurdles when scoring impressively in bumper in February, so disappointing even taking inexperience into account when beaten 15 lengths into third on hurdling debut; Entitled to improve but needs to do so.
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle last month (over this trip); Should step forward again and make presence felt here.
Gift Of Dgab: Made eye-catching debut at Fairyhouse in April and ran another sound race on return at Down Royal (both over 2m); Should take another step forward for experience and fitness, so another one with a chance.
He’s Our Man: Made decent start to life over hurdles when fourth of 14 to Oscars Well in a Punchestown maiden hurdle over this trip; Should make improvement although few similar types here in a better race.
Seafield: Showed plenty of promise in bumpers and readily built on that when grinding down useful Datokepe, showing immense promise on his hurdling debut; Trip was too short (half brother to Joncol) and organised himself remarkably well over hurdles for a horse that’s 17 hands; Will love the cut and every chance.
VERDICT: A useful race in which every horse can be given a realistic shot. None showed more scope than SEAFIELD, who showed immense promise when getting up over a trip that is surely too short for him at Punchestown last time.
Totepool Grand Sefton Chase (National Fences)
12.35 Aintree
totepool Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (National Course) (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £37,176
Pick: Frankie Figg (each/way)
Always Waining: Good runs are few and far between (has won 5 out of 30 chase starts) but very capable on his day, as he proved when romping home in last season’s Topham off 9lbs lower mark; Well beaten both starts this term but if he’s on going day, will run a big race.
Moon Over Miami: Talented (once beat Big Buck’s over fences; 2nd in Grand Annual Chase) and won last time out despite consenting to run on only late; is inconsistent however, and these fences will really test him.
Magic Sky: Good second last time out in a Verterans’ Chase but has lot of weight and doesn’t seem well treated; In fine heart last term but needs to improve and mark seems stiff enough to stop him.
Dashing George: Has a good mark based on the pick of his form in Ireland, a front running second in the Munster National; That did come off a 2lbs lower mark and while he shaped well over hurdles for a long way, still question marks over attitude; Chance if taking to fences.
Frankie Figg: Last win came over this track when romping home by 8 lengths off 6lbs lower mark; Was in process of running huge race (booked for place at least) when unseating in Topham 2 from home; Looked like something amiss last time but obviously fine if he races here; Off same mark today and if getting round, huge chance.
Victoria’s Groom: Hasn’t risen from mark for his 20 length rout of Cool Roxy but has been pulled up in Byrne Group Plate & Tom Wragg Trophy since and hardly looked like winner of this race when chasing home Ursis at Market Rasen a week ago; Chance if taking to it but lot more needed.
Private Be: Ran 2 great races in January off similar marks, coming second to Can’t Buy Time and The Sawyer in the space of a month; Has run respectably since and in with a chance in open race, although this might be a very tough test for him.
Battlefront: Was in great form earlier this year, bagging a couple of 2m handicaps at Punchestown and repeated the trick at Punchestown festival with wide margin romp; Hasn’t gone with any zest since and without blinkers.
Nikola: Slowly dropping towards very lenient mark for horse with useful form but seems badly exposed and moody display last time out.
Stormin Exit: Took well to fences last term, winning at Newcastle in January and Ayr in April, landing a particularly good end of season event on latter event; Can improve again and yard has fantastic record in this event (won this in 2007 and 2008; also third 12 months ago)so one of major players.
Double Dizzy: Very useful on his best, running the classy Duc De Regniere to 2 and half lengths off level weights, and hadn’t been fully tested when falling in Irish National; Has looked moody on both starts this season though, and avoided on that basis.
Presentandcorrect: Comes here with series of good runs to his name (only been out of first four in his last six starts) and ran good race in competitive enough event last time over a trip which was too far for him; Jumps soundly and can make his presence felt for in – from yard.
Et Maintentant: Bold front jumper who showed what he’s all about when winning by 5 lengths at Carlisle in April (soft ground, 2 miles); That was off 9lbs lower mark and while he ran well, he looks badly treated even allowing for the fact he could like it around here.
Commemoration Day: Much more miss than hit last season, failing to win after landing a Carlisle Handicap Chase despite only going up 5lbs for that; Tailed off in Topham and will need to do a lot better here.
Craiglands: Nicely weighted having proven liking for this tack and these fences (5lbs lower than when third in this last year), and second to Frankie Figg over 2 miles before that; Been woefully out of form since although he did have stiff mark.
Lampion Du Bost: Cantered home in this by 8 lengths when spring 66/1-surprise in this in 2007 off 5 lb lower mark, but must have had big problems to have been absent over 1000 days since.
VERDICT: A typically wide-open renewal of the Grand Sefton. If FRANKIE FIGG can get round, he must have a huge shout, as he was booked for a place when unseating in the Topham and has the same mark for today. His Wetherby reappearance effort was hardly inspiring but that will have blown away any cobwebs and today could be his day. Stormin Exit was progressive last season and rates the main threat for a yard has fantastic record in this event (won this in 2007 and 2008; also third 12 months ago) while Presentandcorrect should go well for the Twiston-Davies team; Craiglands can’t be discounted off his low mark even if his is out of form. Private Be is also quite well treated on his best form and he could be in the shake-up.
totepool Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (National Course) (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £37,176
Pick: Frankie Figg (each/way)
Always Waining: Good runs are few and far between (has won 5 out of 30 chase starts) but very capable on his day, as he proved when romping home in last season’s Topham off 9lbs lower mark; Well beaten both starts this term but if he’s on going day, will run a big race.
Moon Over Miami: Talented (once beat Big Buck’s over fences; 2nd in Grand Annual Chase) and won last time out despite consenting to run on only late; is inconsistent however, and these fences will really test him.
Magic Sky: Good second last time out in a Verterans’ Chase but has lot of weight and doesn’t seem well treated; In fine heart last term but needs to improve and mark seems stiff enough to stop him.
Dashing George: Has a good mark based on the pick of his form in Ireland, a front running second in the Munster National; That did come off a 2lbs lower mark and while he shaped well over hurdles for a long way, still question marks over attitude; Chance if taking to fences.
Frankie Figg: Last win came over this track when romping home by 8 lengths off 6lbs lower mark; Was in process of running huge race (booked for place at least) when unseating in Topham 2 from home; Looked like something amiss last time but obviously fine if he races here; Off same mark today and if getting round, huge chance.
Victoria’s Groom: Hasn’t risen from mark for his 20 length rout of Cool Roxy but has been pulled up in Byrne Group Plate & Tom Wragg Trophy since and hardly looked like winner of this race when chasing home Ursis at Market Rasen a week ago; Chance if taking to it but lot more needed.
Private Be: Ran 2 great races in January off similar marks, coming second to Can’t Buy Time and The Sawyer in the space of a month; Has run respectably since and in with a chance in open race, although this might be a very tough test for him.
Battlefront: Was in great form earlier this year, bagging a couple of 2m handicaps at Punchestown and repeated the trick at Punchestown festival with wide margin romp; Hasn’t gone with any zest since and without blinkers.
Nikola: Slowly dropping towards very lenient mark for horse with useful form but seems badly exposed and moody display last time out.
Stormin Exit: Took well to fences last term, winning at Newcastle in January and Ayr in April, landing a particularly good end of season event on latter event; Can improve again and yard has fantastic record in this event (won this in 2007 and 2008; also third 12 months ago)so one of major players.
Double Dizzy: Very useful on his best, running the classy Duc De Regniere to 2 and half lengths off level weights, and hadn’t been fully tested when falling in Irish National; Has looked moody on both starts this season though, and avoided on that basis.
Presentandcorrect: Comes here with series of good runs to his name (only been out of first four in his last six starts) and ran good race in competitive enough event last time over a trip which was too far for him; Jumps soundly and can make his presence felt for in – from yard.
Et Maintentant: Bold front jumper who showed what he’s all about when winning by 5 lengths at Carlisle in April (soft ground, 2 miles); That was off 9lbs lower mark and while he ran well, he looks badly treated even allowing for the fact he could like it around here.
Commemoration Day: Much more miss than hit last season, failing to win after landing a Carlisle Handicap Chase despite only going up 5lbs for that; Tailed off in Topham and will need to do a lot better here.
Craiglands: Nicely weighted having proven liking for this tack and these fences (5lbs lower than when third in this last year), and second to Frankie Figg over 2 miles before that; Been woefully out of form since although he did have stiff mark.
Lampion Du Bost: Cantered home in this by 8 lengths when spring 66/1-surprise in this in 2007 off 5 lb lower mark, but must have had big problems to have been absent over 1000 days since.
VERDICT: A typically wide-open renewal of the Grand Sefton. If FRANKIE FIGG can get round, he must have a huge shout, as he was booked for a place when unseating in the Topham and has the same mark for today. His Wetherby reappearance effort was hardly inspiring but that will have blown away any cobwebs and today could be his day. Stormin Exit was progressive last season and rates the main threat for a yard has fantastic record in this event (won this in 2007 and 2008; also third 12 months ago) while Presentandcorrect should go well for the Twiston-Davies team; Craiglands can’t be discounted off his low mark even if his is out of form. Private Be is also quite well treated on his best form and he could be in the shake-up.
Aintree 1.10 - Live Football Betting At Totesport.com Handicap Hurdle
1.10 Aintree
Live Football Betting At Totesport.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £12,524
Picks: Keki Buku (win), Washington Irving (each/way)
Quarts De Thaix: Improved with every run last season, impressive when beating Pontop by 5 and then 4 lengths at Cheltenham and Perth, handling an 8lbs rise inbetween; Surely not done improving yet although he will probably need the run.
Son Of Flicka: Thrived since winning 2½m Worcester handicap in June and came good third to Russian War in very solid race at Cheltenham last time; That effort gives him hand in this but exposed and handicapped to the hit.
Puyol: Won MCR Hurdle in January at Leopardstown but that off 13lbs lower mark; Best form at 2 miles, and will probably need the outing off a stiff mark.
Chomla Ri Coig: Would hold serious claims on his second in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and made good impression when winning over fences last season but this looks a stepping stone for return to chasing.
Keki Buku: Held in high regard by Phillip Hobbs and showed increased benefit of wind operation when winning 19f handicap hurdle at Market Rasen last week by 11 lengths; Up 7lbs in handicap but won by 11 lengths and every chance if avoiding bounce factor.
Washington Irving: Looked set for a good future over hurdles when pasting up by 15 lengths on his first start. but never really went on from that; Not up to Graded class here last time out but this surely will suit more and potential to be better than mark of 132.
Secret Tune: Well beaten in big summer handicap hurdle and ran a stinker when eighth at Cheltenham on his last start; Seems far happier at 2 miles anyway (blinkers not done trick at this distance).
Lightening Rod: Dotted up by 14 lengths on second last start but unable to cope with rise/race came too soon when making several mistakes in slow third behind Issaquah last time out; Doesn’t seem to stay this far and in any case, fitness concerns first time back.
Heron Bay: Has been in good form of late and second to Nearby in 2m handicap hurdle here on penultimate start has been boosted no end by that horse since; Likes the track and will go well for a yard that has won this race with each of his last two representatives.
Ramsden Boy: In form of his life last season, bagging brace of handicap hurdles over this trip at Ayr (both good ground) beating yardstick Potnop (also beaten by Qarts De Thaix); Will be happy under these conditions but I wonder how much he’ll improve for having fallen at the first last time.
Worth A King’s: Useful flat horse who has already won twice over hurdles, winning a 2m4f novice hurdle at Uttoexeter; Never threatened on handicap bow and while he should be straighter, hard to recommend.
VERDICT: This is an absolute minefield. KEKI BUKU is only a tentative selection to defy a penalty for last week's Market Rasen romp, with his stable in good heart and his previous form looking useful. We never got to see the best of WASHINGTON IRVING as a novice hurdler after his debut last year; While he disappointed on 3 out of his 4 runs he’s still worth a chance to be better than 132 and has a serious shot if he’s ready to run here.
Live Football Betting At Totesport.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £12,524
Picks: Keki Buku (win), Washington Irving (each/way)
Quarts De Thaix: Improved with every run last season, impressive when beating Pontop by 5 and then 4 lengths at Cheltenham and Perth, handling an 8lbs rise inbetween; Surely not done improving yet although he will probably need the run.
Son Of Flicka: Thrived since winning 2½m Worcester handicap in June and came good third to Russian War in very solid race at Cheltenham last time; That effort gives him hand in this but exposed and handicapped to the hit.
Puyol: Won MCR Hurdle in January at Leopardstown but that off 13lbs lower mark; Best form at 2 miles, and will probably need the outing off a stiff mark.
Chomla Ri Coig: Would hold serious claims on his second in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and made good impression when winning over fences last season but this looks a stepping stone for return to chasing.
Keki Buku: Held in high regard by Phillip Hobbs and showed increased benefit of wind operation when winning 19f handicap hurdle at Market Rasen last week by 11 lengths; Up 7lbs in handicap but won by 11 lengths and every chance if avoiding bounce factor.
Washington Irving: Looked set for a good future over hurdles when pasting up by 15 lengths on his first start. but never really went on from that; Not up to Graded class here last time out but this surely will suit more and potential to be better than mark of 132.
Secret Tune: Well beaten in big summer handicap hurdle and ran a stinker when eighth at Cheltenham on his last start; Seems far happier at 2 miles anyway (blinkers not done trick at this distance).
Lightening Rod: Dotted up by 14 lengths on second last start but unable to cope with rise/race came too soon when making several mistakes in slow third behind Issaquah last time out; Doesn’t seem to stay this far and in any case, fitness concerns first time back.
Heron Bay: Has been in good form of late and second to Nearby in 2m handicap hurdle here on penultimate start has been boosted no end by that horse since; Likes the track and will go well for a yard that has won this race with each of his last two representatives.
Ramsden Boy: In form of his life last season, bagging brace of handicap hurdles over this trip at Ayr (both good ground) beating yardstick Potnop (also beaten by Qarts De Thaix); Will be happy under these conditions but I wonder how much he’ll improve for having fallen at the first last time.
Worth A King’s: Useful flat horse who has already won twice over hurdles, winning a 2m4f novice hurdle at Uttoexeter; Never threatened on handicap bow and while he should be straighter, hard to recommend.
VERDICT: This is an absolute minefield. KEKI BUKU is only a tentative selection to defy a penalty for last week's Market Rasen romp, with his stable in good heart and his previous form looking useful. We never got to see the best of WASHINGTON IRVING as a novice hurdler after his debut last year; While he disappointed on 3 out of his 4 runs he’s still worth a chance to be better than 132 and has a serious shot if he’s ready to run here.
Saturday, 20 November 2010
Newton Novices' Hurdle 2010
12.40 Haydock
Coronation Street 50th Anniversary Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Newton Novices' Hurdle) (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £10,412
Pick: Toubab (win)
Dunraven Storm: Only unplaced effort in 6 has come in the Champion Bumper last season which can be easily forgiven seeing as it was his second run; Has been impressive since, taking novice hurdle at Exeter by 11 lengths and then winning very strong event at Ascot in good style; Well clear of rest when no match for Cue Card last time and strong claims.
Pure Faith: Made all to beat Bridlingtonbygones 8 lengths for latest success at Sedgefield 11 days ago but this much tougher and well exposed by now.
Drill Sergeant: Very useful flat recruit (Royal Ascot winner; Stayed 2m) who has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, though needed memorable ride from Tony McCoy over C&D for latest win; This needs a lot more from him.
Toubab: Has only had three runs for Paul Nicholls but has shown big promise on the last 2 runs, coming second to Triumph winner Soldatino and then fourth in Swinton Hurdle; Those efforts give him big chance here, especially getting 8lbs from Dunraven Storm and Pure Faith; Plenty of speed so should do fine in small field.
VERDICT: Another intriguing renewal of the race that produced Peddlers Cross last year. Dunraven Storm beat plenty of good horses when behind Cue Card last time out but he’ll do well to give 8lbs and a beating to TOUBAB, who himself holds some very useful form and has plenty of speed here. He rates the pick getting 8lbs from the exposed Pure Faith, and useful but temperamental Drill Sergeant.
Coronation Street 50th Anniversary Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Newton Novices' Hurdle) (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £10,412
Pick: Toubab (win)
Dunraven Storm: Only unplaced effort in 6 has come in the Champion Bumper last season which can be easily forgiven seeing as it was his second run; Has been impressive since, taking novice hurdle at Exeter by 11 lengths and then winning very strong event at Ascot in good style; Well clear of rest when no match for Cue Card last time and strong claims.
Pure Faith: Made all to beat Bridlingtonbygones 8 lengths for latest success at Sedgefield 11 days ago but this much tougher and well exposed by now.
Drill Sergeant: Very useful flat recruit (Royal Ascot winner; Stayed 2m) who has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, though needed memorable ride from Tony McCoy over C&D for latest win; This needs a lot more from him.
Toubab: Has only had three runs for Paul Nicholls but has shown big promise on the last 2 runs, coming second to Triumph winner Soldatino and then fourth in Swinton Hurdle; Those efforts give him big chance here, especially getting 8lbs from Dunraven Storm and Pure Faith; Plenty of speed so should do fine in small field.
VERDICT: Another intriguing renewal of the race that produced Peddlers Cross last year. Dunraven Storm beat plenty of good horses when behind Cue Card last time out but he’ll do well to give 8lbs and a beating to TOUBAB, who himself holds some very useful form and has plenty of speed here. He rates the pick getting 8lbs from the exposed Pure Faith, and useful but temperamental Drill Sergeant.
Friday, 19 November 2010
Supporting Races - 19th November 2010
12.20 Ascot
Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,588
Time For Spring made a pleasing debut when 13 lengths second to Made In Time at Stratford but the latter’s eclipse yesterday puts a dampener on the form and REBEL REBELLION (win) should go well if wound up first time based on his bumper form here.
Recommendation
3 pts win Rebel Rebellion (12.20 Ascot)
3.10 Ascot
Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,588
Cockney Trucker hammered subsequent winner Rock Noir at Huntingdon last time and will go well off this mark, while Noble Alan will really rake the beating if reproducing his best, but WOLLCOMBE FOLLY (win) was an impressive winner of a graded novice on chasing debut before finding the Arkle too tough (made mistakes); That form is seriously impressive for a debutant coming back from 2 year absence and you’d be disappointed if this mark was beyond him with only 3 Chase starts behind him.
Recommendation
2 pts win Wollcombe Folly (3.10 Ascot)
Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,588
Time For Spring made a pleasing debut when 13 lengths second to Made In Time at Stratford but the latter’s eclipse yesterday puts a dampener on the form and REBEL REBELLION (win) should go well if wound up first time based on his bumper form here.
Recommendation
3 pts win Rebel Rebellion (12.20 Ascot)
3.10 Ascot
Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,588
Cockney Trucker hammered subsequent winner Rock Noir at Huntingdon last time and will go well off this mark, while Noble Alan will really rake the beating if reproducing his best, but WOLLCOMBE FOLLY (win) was an impressive winner of a graded novice on chasing debut before finding the Arkle too tough (made mistakes); That form is seriously impressive for a debutant coming back from 2 year absence and you’d be disappointed if this mark was beyond him with only 3 Chase starts behind him.
Recommendation
2 pts win Wollcombe Folly (3.10 Ascot)
Coral Ascot Hurdle 2010
2.35 Ascot
Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £50,697
Pick: Zaynar (win)
Ashakzar: Tricky but very talented hurdler (won Grade 2 over hurdles; fancied for Champion Hurdle off back of that) and had decent season last year, when winning twice in April, including in listed company; On ‘going’ day, major player, but hard to know if he is.
Zaynar: Unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile (one here, won Triumph) and came into Champion Hurdle picture with impressive win in this race last year; Won Reelkeel doing handstands and performed with credit when third in Champion and Aintree Hurdles, looking like 3 miles would be ideal distance; One to beat although laziness is a massive worry.
Restless Harry: Became one of most likeable horses in training last season, dotting up in smart Cheltenham Novice Hurdle before running titanic race in Albert Bartlett (dotted up last time seen last year); Ran a very pleasing race considering that he was left 10 lengths behind at the start (beaten only 11 & ½ lengths in the end) in Silver Trophy; Will strip much fitter for that, trip should suit, and major player.
Silviniaco Conti: Has yet to be beaten in four outings, dotting up on all occasions (has an aggregate victory distance of 54 lengths) and would have to be feared based on 10 lengths slamming of useful Captain Chris last time out; Every chance and seriously respected.
Won In The Dark: Grade 1 winner who performed with credit last season(won twice) and fourth in Aintree Hurdle; Runs well fresh but likely few of these will either prove too good (Zaynar ahead on all form) or progress past him.
Black Jack Blues: Has made all of the running in 4 of his 5 wins (and useful second at Aintree in big handicap hurdle) but not so good when taken on and this grade looks too high for him anyway.
Karabak: Progressed well last season, scoring emphatically prior to fine second to Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham in Ballymore Novice’s Hurdlebefore being well beaten by Zayanar in this race last year; Got three miles really well when running great race to finish second to Big Buck’s in Long Walk hurdle and also to finish fourth in World Hurdle, so disappointing that he bombed at Punchestown afterwards; On 7lbs better terms than last year with Zaynar, so every chance (esp with yard in form).
Lough Derg: Not been so good recently (winner of Long Walk Hurdle, major handicap hurdle and Ascot Hurdle here at his best) and not completely out of it on going day (much like other stable runner Askahazar) but hard to recommend.
VERDICT: Another good renal which should tell a lot about some major players this season in the middle –distance/ staying divisions. ZAYNAR looked like a 3 miler in waiting when third in the Champion and Aintree Hurdles and while a tendency to race very lazily at times and big weight are worries, he’s a worthy favourite and will be very hard to beat. On 7lbs better terms for a 6 length beating Karabak is a major threat; His yard are in much better form this season than last and he held himself up with credit last year. Unbeaten novice Silviniaco Conti must be respected coming here, especially as there could have been easier targets and he comes from a yard that knows the score; On that note Restless Harry should play a hand; He was a Grade 2 winner last year and would have gone close in the Neptune had he ran.
Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £50,697
Pick: Zaynar (win)
Ashakzar: Tricky but very talented hurdler (won Grade 2 over hurdles; fancied for Champion Hurdle off back of that) and had decent season last year, when winning twice in April, including in listed company; On ‘going’ day, major player, but hard to know if he is.
Zaynar: Unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile (one here, won Triumph) and came into Champion Hurdle picture with impressive win in this race last year; Won Reelkeel doing handstands and performed with credit when third in Champion and Aintree Hurdles, looking like 3 miles would be ideal distance; One to beat although laziness is a massive worry.
Restless Harry: Became one of most likeable horses in training last season, dotting up in smart Cheltenham Novice Hurdle before running titanic race in Albert Bartlett (dotted up last time seen last year); Ran a very pleasing race considering that he was left 10 lengths behind at the start (beaten only 11 & ½ lengths in the end) in Silver Trophy; Will strip much fitter for that, trip should suit, and major player.
Silviniaco Conti: Has yet to be beaten in four outings, dotting up on all occasions (has an aggregate victory distance of 54 lengths) and would have to be feared based on 10 lengths slamming of useful Captain Chris last time out; Every chance and seriously respected.
Won In The Dark: Grade 1 winner who performed with credit last season(won twice) and fourth in Aintree Hurdle; Runs well fresh but likely few of these will either prove too good (Zaynar ahead on all form) or progress past him.
Black Jack Blues: Has made all of the running in 4 of his 5 wins (and useful second at Aintree in big handicap hurdle) but not so good when taken on and this grade looks too high for him anyway.
Karabak: Progressed well last season, scoring emphatically prior to fine second to Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham in Ballymore Novice’s Hurdlebefore being well beaten by Zayanar in this race last year; Got three miles really well when running great race to finish second to Big Buck’s in Long Walk hurdle and also to finish fourth in World Hurdle, so disappointing that he bombed at Punchestown afterwards; On 7lbs better terms than last year with Zaynar, so every chance (esp with yard in form).
Lough Derg: Not been so good recently (winner of Long Walk Hurdle, major handicap hurdle and Ascot Hurdle here at his best) and not completely out of it on going day (much like other stable runner Askahazar) but hard to recommend.
VERDICT: Another good renal which should tell a lot about some major players this season in the middle –distance/ staying divisions. ZAYNAR looked like a 3 miler in waiting when third in the Champion and Aintree Hurdles and while a tendency to race very lazily at times and big weight are worries, he’s a worthy favourite and will be very hard to beat. On 7lbs better terms for a 6 length beating Karabak is a major threat; His yard are in much better form this season than last and he held himself up with credit last year. Unbeaten novice Silviniaco Conti must be respected coming here, especially as there could have been easier targets and he comes from a yard that knows the score; On that note Restless Harry should play a hand; He was a Grade 2 winner last year and would have gone close in the Neptune had he ran.
Betfair iPhone & Android App Hurdle 2010
1.50 Haydock
Betfair Iphone & Android App Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO only)
Winner £25,048
Pick: Clerk’s Choice (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice (reopposes) first time out and was poor in Elite Hurdle last time; Still respected but not in form.
Carlito Brigante: Made major strides last season, winning maiden hurdle, Grade 2 at Leopardstown, and Triumph Hurdle trial before coming fourth behind Carltio Brigante in actual race; Held form well at Punchestown and fit from flat (with that rival out of form), so good chance.
Clerk’s Choice: Has been a complete revelation in winning four out of five over hurdles but nothing even close to how impressive he was at Cheltenham’s showcase meeting, beating Grade 1 winner Barizan and promising Royal Mix by 21 lengths (Barizan 4 further back); Has been put up to rating of 162 and major player at Grade 1 level if that form is literally taken.
Andhaar: Lot to like about progress over hurdles this year, following up a good Wetherby win in the face of a simpler task at Market Rasen last time, jumping far better than on first 2 hurdles runs; Well liked but this is very though.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Needs lot more.
Ultimate: Placed in Grade 2 last year and only 6 lengths behind Carltio Brigante in Triumph Trial; not disgraced on either run this season but seemingly just not going anywhere.
VERDICT: A BHA rating of 162 (only 1lb lower than Binocular achieved when winning the Champion Hurdle last season) has CLERK’S CHOICE competing in the last 10 Champion Hurdles. Whether he’s worth that rating is up to debate but if he wouldn’t need to run to his best to win here and it’ll be interesting to see how he does. Carltio Brigante is fit from the flat and rates the main threat with Barzian out of form this season.
Betfair Iphone & Android App Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO only)
Winner £25,048
Pick: Clerk’s Choice (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice (reopposes) first time out and was poor in Elite Hurdle last time; Still respected but not in form.
Carlito Brigante: Made major strides last season, winning maiden hurdle, Grade 2 at Leopardstown, and Triumph Hurdle trial before coming fourth behind Carltio Brigante in actual race; Held form well at Punchestown and fit from flat (with that rival out of form), so good chance.
Clerk’s Choice: Has been a complete revelation in winning four out of five over hurdles but nothing even close to how impressive he was at Cheltenham’s showcase meeting, beating Grade 1 winner Barizan and promising Royal Mix by 21 lengths (Barizan 4 further back); Has been put up to rating of 162 and major player at Grade 1 level if that form is literally taken.
Andhaar: Lot to like about progress over hurdles this year, following up a good Wetherby win in the face of a simpler task at Market Rasen last time, jumping far better than on first 2 hurdles runs; Well liked but this is very though.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Needs lot more.
Ultimate: Placed in Grade 2 last year and only 6 lengths behind Carltio Brigante in Triumph Trial; not disgraced on either run this season but seemingly just not going anywhere.
VERDICT: A BHA rating of 162 (only 1lb lower than Binocular achieved when winning the Champion Hurdle last season) has CLERK’S CHOICE competing in the last 10 Champion Hurdles. Whether he’s worth that rating is up to debate but if he wouldn’t need to run to his best to win here and it’ll be interesting to see how he does. Carltio Brigante is fit from the flat and rates the main threat with Barzian out of form this season.
Thursday, 18 November 2010
Amlin 1965 Chase 2010
2.05 Ascot
Amlin 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Pick: Albertas Run (win)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but will be much sharper today; Main player.
Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chasers, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in Champion Chase of 2008 and proving dominant for best part of year since; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance in Connaught Chase last year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and clear of these at best, although he has never won over 2 miles and while class act, cannot be sure of how he will run.
Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at the Grand National Festival (15 lengths) and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events): Disappointed at times too, and has followed that this season with good second on return followed by failing to Complete in the Haldon Gold Cup; This is a tough event for him to run well in following on from a well beaten 7th last time (up against Tataniano and Forpadydeplasterer)
Panjo Bere: Last win came off 147 in handicap company here, getting a stone off Imsiningtheblues; Hasn’t improved from that and stiff task here.
Imsingingtheblues: Capable novice handicapper last season who looked like an outside contender for the Arkle when winning competitive handicap at Doncaster for Paul Nicholls; Was going very well on first start for David Pipe in Old Roan but well beaten in Haldon Gold Cup and lot on his plate based on that effort.
Kinkeel: This surely comes too soon after being pulled up only 4 days ago.
Lennon: Pulled up behind Chaninbar last season and has been well beaten on most graded starts.
VERDICT: It would be truly wonderful to see Masterminded return to his best and there’s every chance that he could following a wind operation but he can’t be predicted right now and the excuse of quick ground in the Champion Chase is an uneasy one. He has never won over further than 2 miles before. ALBERTAS RUN was dominant around this trip in the spring and could well take the beating if he has improved from his opening run of the season and maybe well worth a shot at overturning Masterminded, with the trip in his favour and fitness on his side.
Amlin 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Pick: Albertas Run (win)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but will be much sharper today; Main player.
Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chasers, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in Champion Chase of 2008 and proving dominant for best part of year since; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance in Connaught Chase last year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and clear of these at best, although he has never won over 2 miles and while class act, cannot be sure of how he will run.
Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at the Grand National Festival (15 lengths) and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events): Disappointed at times too, and has followed that this season with good second on return followed by failing to Complete in the Haldon Gold Cup; This is a tough event for him to run well in following on from a well beaten 7th last time (up against Tataniano and Forpadydeplasterer)
Panjo Bere: Last win came off 147 in handicap company here, getting a stone off Imsiningtheblues; Hasn’t improved from that and stiff task here.
Imsingingtheblues: Capable novice handicapper last season who looked like an outside contender for the Arkle when winning competitive handicap at Doncaster for Paul Nicholls; Was going very well on first start for David Pipe in Old Roan but well beaten in Haldon Gold Cup and lot on his plate based on that effort.
Kinkeel: This surely comes too soon after being pulled up only 4 days ago.
Lennon: Pulled up behind Chaninbar last season and has been well beaten on most graded starts.
VERDICT: It would be truly wonderful to see Masterminded return to his best and there’s every chance that he could following a wind operation but he can’t be predicted right now and the excuse of quick ground in the Champion Chase is an uneasy one. He has never won over further than 2 miles before. ALBERTAS RUN was dominant around this trip in the spring and could well take the beating if he has improved from his opening run of the season and maybe well worth a shot at overturning Masterminded, with the trip in his favour and fitness on his side.
Betfair Chase 2010
3.25 Haydock
Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £112,660
Pick: What A Friend (win)
Atouchbetweenacara: Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and this asking too much of him.
Chief Dan George: Very useful over fences 2 season ago and stepped forward massively to win Veteran’s Handicap Chase at Doncaster and then William Hill Chase at Festival; Brave efforts both but this much tougher.
Imperial Commander: Marked himself as the new star of staying chasers when romping away with Gold Cup, beating Denman by 7 lengths having previously pushed Kauto Star to a nose here in last year’s renewal; Disappointing at Aintree but that best written off (tired horse) and could be near impossible to beat if figures are accurate (18lbs clear); Loves being fresh and will take all the beating.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Every chance with fitness on side.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last season as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle; Continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; That display impressive even with question marks and can go well here with stable in form, even If this race is harder.
Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham and while he should improve for his third at Wetherby, this looks too tough.
What A Friend: Impressive in his novice season, winning 3 out of 4 starts (not ready for the RSA at Cheltenham);Took giant steps forward on only 3 starts last season, starting with second to stablemate Denman in the Hennessy before landing Grade 1’s at Leopardstown and Aintree (where a below-form Imperial Commander unseated); Latter success has pushed him into Gold Cup picture and bold show possible here.
VERDICT: This looks like a penalty kick for Imperial Commander and based on form, he should turn up and win. Admittedly the same was said before Aintree last season (despite me picking a different horse), but this race will suit a lot more. While he has 18lbs in hand on official ratings, I don’t believe that to be the case whatsoever. Even allowing for the fact that Imperial Commander will be a fresher horse than at Aintree, I still believe that WHAT A FRIEND would have given him a big race had he stayed upright and is well capable of moving on from that, his Totesport Bowl win being only his seventh race over fences. Nacarat is a top class horse at his best; He looked at that level when winning at Wetherby even though this is much harder. Planet Of Sound is given the utmost respect on his Punchestown Gold Cup win but the race fell into his lap there, and this will be a much tougher test.
Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £112,660
Pick: What A Friend (win)
Atouchbetweenacara: Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and this asking too much of him.
Chief Dan George: Very useful over fences 2 season ago and stepped forward massively to win Veteran’s Handicap Chase at Doncaster and then William Hill Chase at Festival; Brave efforts both but this much tougher.
Imperial Commander: Marked himself as the new star of staying chasers when romping away with Gold Cup, beating Denman by 7 lengths having previously pushed Kauto Star to a nose here in last year’s renewal; Disappointing at Aintree but that best written off (tired horse) and could be near impossible to beat if figures are accurate (18lbs clear); Loves being fresh and will take all the beating.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Every chance with fitness on side.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last season as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle; Continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; That display impressive even with question marks and can go well here with stable in form, even If this race is harder.
Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham and while he should improve for his third at Wetherby, this looks too tough.
What A Friend: Impressive in his novice season, winning 3 out of 4 starts (not ready for the RSA at Cheltenham);Took giant steps forward on only 3 starts last season, starting with second to stablemate Denman in the Hennessy before landing Grade 1’s at Leopardstown and Aintree (where a below-form Imperial Commander unseated); Latter success has pushed him into Gold Cup picture and bold show possible here.
VERDICT: This looks like a penalty kick for Imperial Commander and based on form, he should turn up and win. Admittedly the same was said before Aintree last season (despite me picking a different horse), but this race will suit a lot more. While he has 18lbs in hand on official ratings, I don’t believe that to be the case whatsoever. Even allowing for the fact that Imperial Commander will be a fresher horse than at Aintree, I still believe that WHAT A FRIEND would have given him a big race had he stayed upright and is well capable of moving on from that, his Totesport Bowl win being only his seventh race over fences. Nacarat is a top class horse at his best; He looked at that level when winning at Wetherby even though this is much harder. Planet Of Sound is given the utmost respect on his Punchestown Gold Cup win but the race fell into his lap there, and this will be a much tougher test.
Open Meeting Review
It’s been a great Open Meeting, and with so much to say I thought’s I’d give my good, bad, and a few eyecatchers. Please give feedback.
Good
- It’s obvious to start with CUE CARD but there was no denying that he was extremely impressive in destroying a high-class Grade 2 field with slick jumping and a sharp turn of foot. Often in racing the visual impression left by a horse determined out opinions on how good it’s ability truly is, and with that in mind it was pleasing to see the field he had beat include the promising Dunraven Storm (twice unbeaten over hurdles), Ballyadam Brook (a multiple hurdles winner in Ireland; Only touched off in Grade 3 company conceding weight), and Owen Glendower, who was also coming off the back off 2 easy wins. There are still good horses to come out from the top yards (especially in Ireland) but he’s not been beaten yet and has shown 2 very important qualities; He can jump well, and handles Cheltenham (2 wins from 2 starts there).
- I know that Lacdoudal never runs a bad race and this return to the winner's circle was much deserved, but GARDE CHAMPETERE would be unbeaten in these races if they were run at levels and put in yet another brave display. I can find nothing wrong with the horse (many others too) and hopefully he comes back again and again.
- TIME FOR RUPERT had the fortune of a competitive looking Mr Thriller (see Eyecatchers) falling, Quantitveeasing disappointing, Reve De Sivola belting one and then not being given a hard race at all not to mention The Giant Bolster falling when still well there, but he would have needed the run over a trip a bit short for him and he can go on from this to land bigger things. He will face tougher fields in the foreseeable future but jumped well and ground it out and can go onto better things.
- What SAM WINNER has achieved in winning this we don’t really know but it was the best juvenile hurdle run this season by far (plenty of unexposed/classy/good flat types)and he won by 15 lengths without turning a hair. Plenty will come out of the woodwork but this horse sets a high standard especially if improving.
- With Chicago Grey & Beshabar falling (see eyecatchers), and Berties’ Dream running a shocker it’s debateable what WAYWARD PRINCE achieved in winning seeing as he had to work hard but he’s not done improving yet and there are still plenty of races to be won with him and if he improves for better ground, he should do well.
- Considering how testing the ground was on Saturday any front running performance was a good one, but to lead over 3 miles 3 furlongs and win by 8 lengths was some feat for MIDNIGHT CHASE, especially considering he was pushed by Junior and Gentle Ranger. Any number of options are open to him now, and given how he jumped and travelled and frond, I sorely hope he can defy another rise in the handicap, as it was just great to see a horse win like he did on Saturday.
-Little Josh may have had the guts and class to win as he did, but plaudits in my mind should go to the brilliant ride given by SAM-TWISTON-DAVIES, having the guts to go from the front and boot his horse (who had been called a suspect jumper in the past) into every fence that
came his way and he was always holding off Dancing Tornado at the end.
- With Tataniano wanting top of the ground (and giving 5lbs away) and Forpadydeplaster fading fast, it’s hard to know just what GAUVAIN has achieved but he the bare facts are that he beat last year's Champion Chase second Forpadydeplasterer 4 lengths into second with 13 length Grade 1 winner Tataniano a further 6 lengths back in third, and Given that his trainer was surprised at the win and the fact it was his first run since April 2009 you'd have to think there is plenty of improvement to come.
- The Open meeting always produces a serious festival hope or two and if Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner MENORAH can win first time out giving 27lb to Bothy, then surely he must be considered as a serious Champion Hurdle contender seeing as he idled in front, went wide for the better ground and dived after the last. He loves good ground and a fast pace, and has shown that he can hack it at the very top level (Supreme Novices) and do it the tough way. His ante – post price may also be boosted by a false defeat, just like last year before the Supreme.
- ROCK ON RUBY was impressive in landing the last for Paul Nicholls, and while the race doesn’t look up to much, he won by 5 lengths and should be watched closely in Novice Hurdles to come.
- It’s not strictly Cheltenham, but SOLWHIT once again proved his class when winning the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle on Saturday and will be a force to come in the 2 mile hurdles.
- The SECOND – LAST fence has still has its share of fallers but as of yet no fatalities and even while it’s still a very tricky fence, surely on a flat surface things are safer than a drop???
Bad
- BERTIE’S DREAM romped home in the Albert Bartlett novices hurdle and could have been forgiven for lack of race fitness against Jessie’s’ Dream, Corkseagh Royale, and Venalmar first time out, but he jumped nothing short of abysmally on Saturday and options now look bleak unless this was a blip(he would have been sixth but for Chicago Grey and Beshabar falling)
- The talent of LONG RUN isn't in doubt and he’s capable of better than his third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in all likelihood, but given his form last season and targets this year, he should have been a lot more threatening than a one paced third off 158 (only running off 11-1 in weight) even if he is only 5. While he didn’t ‘bank one’, several mistakes, sloppy at the sixth, seventh and, more crucially, the third last and second last, hampered his chances badly and once really asked he was never closing and was outstayed by Dancing Tornado. The winner was improving but as of yet is nothing special, while the same can be applied to the second. A return to Kempton, where he won the Feltham, may be in his favour, but he'll be playing for a place at best if Kauto Star and Imperial Commander are on their game.
- CATCH ME should have done a lot better of his mark, and was a let-down even if he’s worth another shot.
- Given his several battling runs it’s hard to be disappointed in FORAPDYDEPLASTERER but he blew a perfectly good opportunity on Sunday, having beaten off Tataniano beforehand but he failed badly to pick up when galled by Gavuain and in the end got beaten by a horse that was coming off the back off a 600+ day layoff. He will improved as the season goes off but this was an inauspicious defeat and there were clear flaws in his armour, such as a lack off a good jump at the last to put the race to bed and his inability to head straight under pressure, factors which cost him the race.
- GET ME OUT OF HERE was extremely disappointing on his season debut and did nearly the same thing in the Greatwood, travelling well until hitting a hurdle and just fading away. It’s hard to know where to go with him, seeing as he hasn’t schooled well and can’t even hack it in handicaps based on 2 runs this season.
- THE HYDE NOVICES’ HURDLE has produced the likes of Black Jack Ketchum Powerstation, Massini’s Maguire and Neptune Collonges (all in one renewal) along with Diamond Harry and Tell Massini, but this year’s renewal just lacked in any even half established horses and while Champion Court was good winner (first hurdles debut) the field looked poor and I’m sceptical about the form.
Eyecatchers
- MR THRILLER was touted as a serious prospect for Graded hurdles after running out a 15-length winner of the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and then beating Champion Hurdle fifth at Haydock before ground and a mark of 160 stopped those ambitions, but he was going to lay down a good challenge to Time For Rupert when falling 2 out, a good effort considering that Cheltenham isn’t his favoured course and he should be winning very soon.
- The 1.20 on the Saturday was a terrific looking race, which makes CHICAGO GREY’S effort all the better, considering that he was all over Wayward Prince (Bettie’s Dream, Cannington Brook beaten off) when he fell, carrying 11-7. He hasn’t been quoted yet but is coming on strong with every run and could well turn out to be value in the coming weeks/months.
- BESHABAR was unlucky to be brought down (and jockey Christian Williams even unluckier to break both arms) and while he had been shoved along a lot he was coming into and is still a good prospect. His hurdles form entitles him to major respect and with a good debut behind him, he should be winning soon.
- OGEE wasn’t too far of some classy novice chasers last season (Grade 1 winner in that sphere over hurdles) and ran well for a long way on his seasonal debut before being let down by fitness and mainly jumping in the latter stages. He banked the 4th last and 3rd last before stumbling at the last 2 but would have liked better ground to jump out of and is one to keep on the right side of.
- MAD MAX was never really looking like winning the Paddy Power, but he was right there until 2 out and jumped perfectly before blowing up, suggesting the run was badly needed. He can make his mark on good ground this season in any company.
- This probably came just too soon after his Aintree second for POQULEIN, but he ran a very good race all the same and will be much better in graded company, where he still has a lot of potential.
- CRYSTAL ROCK has only raced in low grade company but looked all over the winner in a very competitive handicap hurdle for novices and comes out with plenty of credit having given over a stone in weight to the runner up.
- I was bitterly disappointed with the way that LOOSEN MY LOAD failed to quicken when challenged by Ghizao but in all likeliness the winner is a very good horse and yet again he didn’t tough a twig, and was travelling just as well coming towards the turn. He was giving 6lbs and may well want a trip, so don’t discount him on flatter tracks over 3 miles, as he may go for the Feltham if Sizing Europe goes for the King George.
- Considering the ground was a slot slower than advised, this wasn’t a terrible run from TATANIANO giving 5lbs on ground he wouldn’t have liked a bit. He can go on from this.
- I originally felt that SANCTUAIRE had an awful lot to do on his rating in the Greatwood, but he settled beautifully and jumped slickly in the early and middle stages and was just getting into the thick of things when coming down 2 out. Clearly he’s no spent force (any grade) and can go on from this.
- Menorah was impressive in grinding out the Greatwood, and it was a surprise to see his previous conqueror LUSH LIFE running over 2m5f first time out. He went wide in search of better ground (which was already testing) and was traveling very well until fading badly 2 out. He plainly had used up his energy and is well worth a chance (hopefully down in the handicap) back at 2m.
Good
- It’s obvious to start with CUE CARD but there was no denying that he was extremely impressive in destroying a high-class Grade 2 field with slick jumping and a sharp turn of foot. Often in racing the visual impression left by a horse determined out opinions on how good it’s ability truly is, and with that in mind it was pleasing to see the field he had beat include the promising Dunraven Storm (twice unbeaten over hurdles), Ballyadam Brook (a multiple hurdles winner in Ireland; Only touched off in Grade 3 company conceding weight), and Owen Glendower, who was also coming off the back off 2 easy wins. There are still good horses to come out from the top yards (especially in Ireland) but he’s not been beaten yet and has shown 2 very important qualities; He can jump well, and handles Cheltenham (2 wins from 2 starts there).
- I know that Lacdoudal never runs a bad race and this return to the winner's circle was much deserved, but GARDE CHAMPETERE would be unbeaten in these races if they were run at levels and put in yet another brave display. I can find nothing wrong with the horse (many others too) and hopefully he comes back again and again.
- TIME FOR RUPERT had the fortune of a competitive looking Mr Thriller (see Eyecatchers) falling, Quantitveeasing disappointing, Reve De Sivola belting one and then not being given a hard race at all not to mention The Giant Bolster falling when still well there, but he would have needed the run over a trip a bit short for him and he can go on from this to land bigger things. He will face tougher fields in the foreseeable future but jumped well and ground it out and can go onto better things.
- What SAM WINNER has achieved in winning this we don’t really know but it was the best juvenile hurdle run this season by far (plenty of unexposed/classy/good flat types)and he won by 15 lengths without turning a hair. Plenty will come out of the woodwork but this horse sets a high standard especially if improving.
- With Chicago Grey & Beshabar falling (see eyecatchers), and Berties’ Dream running a shocker it’s debateable what WAYWARD PRINCE achieved in winning seeing as he had to work hard but he’s not done improving yet and there are still plenty of races to be won with him and if he improves for better ground, he should do well.
- Considering how testing the ground was on Saturday any front running performance was a good one, but to lead over 3 miles 3 furlongs and win by 8 lengths was some feat for MIDNIGHT CHASE, especially considering he was pushed by Junior and Gentle Ranger. Any number of options are open to him now, and given how he jumped and travelled and frond, I sorely hope he can defy another rise in the handicap, as it was just great to see a horse win like he did on Saturday.
-Little Josh may have had the guts and class to win as he did, but plaudits in my mind should go to the brilliant ride given by SAM-TWISTON-DAVIES, having the guts to go from the front and boot his horse (who had been called a suspect jumper in the past) into every fence that
came his way and he was always holding off Dancing Tornado at the end.
- With Tataniano wanting top of the ground (and giving 5lbs away) and Forpadydeplaster fading fast, it’s hard to know just what GAUVAIN has achieved but he the bare facts are that he beat last year's Champion Chase second Forpadydeplasterer 4 lengths into second with 13 length Grade 1 winner Tataniano a further 6 lengths back in third, and Given that his trainer was surprised at the win and the fact it was his first run since April 2009 you'd have to think there is plenty of improvement to come.
- The Open meeting always produces a serious festival hope or two and if Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner MENORAH can win first time out giving 27lb to Bothy, then surely he must be considered as a serious Champion Hurdle contender seeing as he idled in front, went wide for the better ground and dived after the last. He loves good ground and a fast pace, and has shown that he can hack it at the very top level (Supreme Novices) and do it the tough way. His ante – post price may also be boosted by a false defeat, just like last year before the Supreme.
- ROCK ON RUBY was impressive in landing the last for Paul Nicholls, and while the race doesn’t look up to much, he won by 5 lengths and should be watched closely in Novice Hurdles to come.
- It’s not strictly Cheltenham, but SOLWHIT once again proved his class when winning the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle on Saturday and will be a force to come in the 2 mile hurdles.
- The SECOND – LAST fence has still has its share of fallers but as of yet no fatalities and even while it’s still a very tricky fence, surely on a flat surface things are safer than a drop???
Bad
- BERTIE’S DREAM romped home in the Albert Bartlett novices hurdle and could have been forgiven for lack of race fitness against Jessie’s’ Dream, Corkseagh Royale, and Venalmar first time out, but he jumped nothing short of abysmally on Saturday and options now look bleak unless this was a blip(he would have been sixth but for Chicago Grey and Beshabar falling)
- The talent of LONG RUN isn't in doubt and he’s capable of better than his third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in all likelihood, but given his form last season and targets this year, he should have been a lot more threatening than a one paced third off 158 (only running off 11-1 in weight) even if he is only 5. While he didn’t ‘bank one’, several mistakes, sloppy at the sixth, seventh and, more crucially, the third last and second last, hampered his chances badly and once really asked he was never closing and was outstayed by Dancing Tornado. The winner was improving but as of yet is nothing special, while the same can be applied to the second. A return to Kempton, where he won the Feltham, may be in his favour, but he'll be playing for a place at best if Kauto Star and Imperial Commander are on their game.
- CATCH ME should have done a lot better of his mark, and was a let-down even if he’s worth another shot.
- Given his several battling runs it’s hard to be disappointed in FORAPDYDEPLASTERER but he blew a perfectly good opportunity on Sunday, having beaten off Tataniano beforehand but he failed badly to pick up when galled by Gavuain and in the end got beaten by a horse that was coming off the back off a 600+ day layoff. He will improved as the season goes off but this was an inauspicious defeat and there were clear flaws in his armour, such as a lack off a good jump at the last to put the race to bed and his inability to head straight under pressure, factors which cost him the race.
- GET ME OUT OF HERE was extremely disappointing on his season debut and did nearly the same thing in the Greatwood, travelling well until hitting a hurdle and just fading away. It’s hard to know where to go with him, seeing as he hasn’t schooled well and can’t even hack it in handicaps based on 2 runs this season.
- THE HYDE NOVICES’ HURDLE has produced the likes of Black Jack Ketchum Powerstation, Massini’s Maguire and Neptune Collonges (all in one renewal) along with Diamond Harry and Tell Massini, but this year’s renewal just lacked in any even half established horses and while Champion Court was good winner (first hurdles debut) the field looked poor and I’m sceptical about the form.
Eyecatchers
- MR THRILLER was touted as a serious prospect for Graded hurdles after running out a 15-length winner of the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and then beating Champion Hurdle fifth at Haydock before ground and a mark of 160 stopped those ambitions, but he was going to lay down a good challenge to Time For Rupert when falling 2 out, a good effort considering that Cheltenham isn’t his favoured course and he should be winning very soon.
- The 1.20 on the Saturday was a terrific looking race, which makes CHICAGO GREY’S effort all the better, considering that he was all over Wayward Prince (Bettie’s Dream, Cannington Brook beaten off) when he fell, carrying 11-7. He hasn’t been quoted yet but is coming on strong with every run and could well turn out to be value in the coming weeks/months.
- BESHABAR was unlucky to be brought down (and jockey Christian Williams even unluckier to break both arms) and while he had been shoved along a lot he was coming into and is still a good prospect. His hurdles form entitles him to major respect and with a good debut behind him, he should be winning soon.
- OGEE wasn’t too far of some classy novice chasers last season (Grade 1 winner in that sphere over hurdles) and ran well for a long way on his seasonal debut before being let down by fitness and mainly jumping in the latter stages. He banked the 4th last and 3rd last before stumbling at the last 2 but would have liked better ground to jump out of and is one to keep on the right side of.
- MAD MAX was never really looking like winning the Paddy Power, but he was right there until 2 out and jumped perfectly before blowing up, suggesting the run was badly needed. He can make his mark on good ground this season in any company.
- This probably came just too soon after his Aintree second for POQULEIN, but he ran a very good race all the same and will be much better in graded company, where he still has a lot of potential.
- CRYSTAL ROCK has only raced in low grade company but looked all over the winner in a very competitive handicap hurdle for novices and comes out with plenty of credit having given over a stone in weight to the runner up.
- I was bitterly disappointed with the way that LOOSEN MY LOAD failed to quicken when challenged by Ghizao but in all likeliness the winner is a very good horse and yet again he didn’t tough a twig, and was travelling just as well coming towards the turn. He was giving 6lbs and may well want a trip, so don’t discount him on flatter tracks over 3 miles, as he may go for the Feltham if Sizing Europe goes for the King George.
- Considering the ground was a slot slower than advised, this wasn’t a terrible run from TATANIANO giving 5lbs on ground he wouldn’t have liked a bit. He can go on from this.
- I originally felt that SANCTUAIRE had an awful lot to do on his rating in the Greatwood, but he settled beautifully and jumped slickly in the early and middle stages and was just getting into the thick of things when coming down 2 out. Clearly he’s no spent force (any grade) and can go on from this.
- Menorah was impressive in grinding out the Greatwood, and it was a surprise to see his previous conqueror LUSH LIFE running over 2m5f first time out. He went wide in search of better ground (which was already testing) and was traveling very well until fading badly 2 out. He plainly had used up his energy and is well worth a chance (hopefully down in the handicap) back at 2m.
Sunday, 14 November 2010
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle 2010
2.20 Cheltenham
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £57,010 - 17 run
Pick: General Miller (each/way)
Menorah: Showed immense potential when posting a time faster than the then Champion Hurdle favourite Go Native managed over the same course and distance on the same card at Kempton, potential he then realised when winning the Supreme Novice’s by a head when holding off Get Me Out Of Here; Disappointed at times too, when being beaten by Lush Life just before festival (admittedly went off too fast in soft ground) and when being ground down by General Miller at Aintree (was 3 lengths clear before the last);Has a stiff task here but will make presence felt.
Get Me Out Of Here: Impressed when landing valuable Totesport Trophy at Newbury despite bungling the last and was unlucky to lose the Supreme Novices Hurdle, getting checked at a crucial stage; With that in mind it was disappointing how he was never really in contention that day, despite the fact that he should leave that well behind; Major chance here.
Any Given Day: Took well to hurdling last term and made full use of race fitness when runaway winner of Silver Trophy at Chepstow last time; Seemed to relish long trip and soft ground, so up against it in much better race up 10lbs in weights.
General Miller: Was really promising when he had the chance to show his true ability last year and that only happened once in top company, when he caught Menorah late on at Aintree; Flopped at Punchestown but that came very quick for him and has a massive chance on 5lbs better terms for a quarter length advantage from their Aintree meeting, form which will make him tough to beat (and puts him ahead of Get Me Out Of Here); One to beat on that basis.
Sanctuaire: Promising young French horse who made his British debut in a Taunton novice hurdle winning with a degree of comfort; Nothing compared to what he did next, romping home in the Fred Winter (could be called winner some way out); Slightly disappointing when stepped up into Grade 1 company, pulling too hard for own good (travelled like winner but emptied in home straight); Potential remains but is now 20lbs higher in weights than when winning Fred Winter and needs career best, so possibly vulnerable.
Isasaquah: Has 2 good recent runs to her names, coming second at the Grand National meeting and then coming third in Swinton Hurdle; Only beat two home in last year's renewal so looks to have her work cut out from an 11lb higher mark this time round.
Astracad: Has impressed deeply in winning three of last 4 handicap hurdles but handicapper may have overreacted to his decisive win of an open but relatively modest handicap; 12lbs hike is likely to be too taxing today.
Orsippus: Ran very respectably in Fred Winter and caused big upset when landing Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree but that form has muddling look to it; Well beaten at Punchestown and trashed by Clerk’s Choice on seasonal reappearance.
Manyriverstocross: Very useful handicapper on the flat who made a good start to hurdling last year when winning well in Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown (2m4f); Well beaten in Challow Hurdle but ran very good race in Totesport Trophy; Badly hampered by fall of Quel Esprit at Cheltenham festival and big chance here, although further might suit him better.
Leslingtaylor: Versatile and useful performer but beaten a long way behind Nearby at Wincanton last time and probably wants a flatter track to travel into his races; In any case this looks really tough for him.
St Devote: Penny has dropped markedly of late, coming home by 3 lengths in Grade C handicap hurdle at Listowel last time; Needs to take a big step forward if he’s to make his mark off revised weight.
Takari: Made a fine start to life for new yard when runner-up (Astracad third) in a valuable handicap at Market Rasen; Will come on for that but well beaten off much lower mark for Willie Mullins in Country Hurdle so would needs to come on massively to be at business end here, although not discounted.
Olofi: Took to hurdling last year (won twice, once at this venue); Came up short of the best as a juvenile but pleasing return to action when only a nose behind Escort’Men last time out; Should improve but was getting more than a stone in weight from that rival and he would have won better had he not tanked the last.
Puzzlemaster: Outclassed in the Triumph when 150-1 and beaten 27 lengths before winning a half-decent novice hurdle on the old course the next month; Ran poorly on his last flat starts (looked strongly as if he didn’t stay); Unexposed and runners from this yard worth a look but this likely to be too hard.
Bothy: Won three form four last year (all on soft) and that possibly turned against them when beaten into seventh behind Sancutaire in Fred Winter: Needs to up his game, and wants more cut in the ground.
Culablock: Only raced 2 times in the last 2 years, but serious chance based on pick of form in 2008-2009 season when he won big field handicaps here and at Aintree; Should be sharpener for his first run this year and possible one at a price.
Sure Josie Sure: Unbeaten on 3 out of 4 completed starts over hurdles, and was clear in a pair with Nearby (who has since bolted up in the Elite Hurdle); Open to improvement, gets weight from all but three and should not be passed over.
VERDICT: A race which nearly always has a massive effect on the Champion Hurdle, with the likes of Rooster Booster, Detroit City, and most recently, Khyber Kim having won well recently. The 2 I like most (in order of preference) are GENERAL MILLER and Menorah, who were the 1-2 in the John Smith’s Novice Hurdle at Aintree. General Miller benefitted from a lack of pace that day but is now 5lbs better off so should be competitive again, while the good prices about Menorah are now gone. Get Me Out Of Here should leave his reappearance behind and will be thereabouts, while Sure Josie Sure, Sancutaire, Culcablock and Manyriverstocross can’t be discounted.
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £57,010 - 17 run
Pick: General Miller (each/way)
Menorah: Showed immense potential when posting a time faster than the then Champion Hurdle favourite Go Native managed over the same course and distance on the same card at Kempton, potential he then realised when winning the Supreme Novice’s by a head when holding off Get Me Out Of Here; Disappointed at times too, when being beaten by Lush Life just before festival (admittedly went off too fast in soft ground) and when being ground down by General Miller at Aintree (was 3 lengths clear before the last);Has a stiff task here but will make presence felt.
Get Me Out Of Here: Impressed when landing valuable Totesport Trophy at Newbury despite bungling the last and was unlucky to lose the Supreme Novices Hurdle, getting checked at a crucial stage; With that in mind it was disappointing how he was never really in contention that day, despite the fact that he should leave that well behind; Major chance here.
Any Given Day: Took well to hurdling last term and made full use of race fitness when runaway winner of Silver Trophy at Chepstow last time; Seemed to relish long trip and soft ground, so up against it in much better race up 10lbs in weights.
General Miller: Was really promising when he had the chance to show his true ability last year and that only happened once in top company, when he caught Menorah late on at Aintree; Flopped at Punchestown but that came very quick for him and has a massive chance on 5lbs better terms for a quarter length advantage from their Aintree meeting, form which will make him tough to beat (and puts him ahead of Get Me Out Of Here); One to beat on that basis.
Sanctuaire: Promising young French horse who made his British debut in a Taunton novice hurdle winning with a degree of comfort; Nothing compared to what he did next, romping home in the Fred Winter (could be called winner some way out); Slightly disappointing when stepped up into Grade 1 company, pulling too hard for own good (travelled like winner but emptied in home straight); Potential remains but is now 20lbs higher in weights than when winning Fred Winter and needs career best, so possibly vulnerable.
Isasaquah: Has 2 good recent runs to her names, coming second at the Grand National meeting and then coming third in Swinton Hurdle; Only beat two home in last year's renewal so looks to have her work cut out from an 11lb higher mark this time round.
Astracad: Has impressed deeply in winning three of last 4 handicap hurdles but handicapper may have overreacted to his decisive win of an open but relatively modest handicap; 12lbs hike is likely to be too taxing today.
Orsippus: Ran very respectably in Fred Winter and caused big upset when landing Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree but that form has muddling look to it; Well beaten at Punchestown and trashed by Clerk’s Choice on seasonal reappearance.
Manyriverstocross: Very useful handicapper on the flat who made a good start to hurdling last year when winning well in Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown (2m4f); Well beaten in Challow Hurdle but ran very good race in Totesport Trophy; Badly hampered by fall of Quel Esprit at Cheltenham festival and big chance here, although further might suit him better.
Leslingtaylor: Versatile and useful performer but beaten a long way behind Nearby at Wincanton last time and probably wants a flatter track to travel into his races; In any case this looks really tough for him.
St Devote: Penny has dropped markedly of late, coming home by 3 lengths in Grade C handicap hurdle at Listowel last time; Needs to take a big step forward if he’s to make his mark off revised weight.
Takari: Made a fine start to life for new yard when runner-up (Astracad third) in a valuable handicap at Market Rasen; Will come on for that but well beaten off much lower mark for Willie Mullins in Country Hurdle so would needs to come on massively to be at business end here, although not discounted.
Olofi: Took to hurdling last year (won twice, once at this venue); Came up short of the best as a juvenile but pleasing return to action when only a nose behind Escort’Men last time out; Should improve but was getting more than a stone in weight from that rival and he would have won better had he not tanked the last.
Puzzlemaster: Outclassed in the Triumph when 150-1 and beaten 27 lengths before winning a half-decent novice hurdle on the old course the next month; Ran poorly on his last flat starts (looked strongly as if he didn’t stay); Unexposed and runners from this yard worth a look but this likely to be too hard.
Bothy: Won three form four last year (all on soft) and that possibly turned against them when beaten into seventh behind Sancutaire in Fred Winter: Needs to up his game, and wants more cut in the ground.
Culablock: Only raced 2 times in the last 2 years, but serious chance based on pick of form in 2008-2009 season when he won big field handicaps here and at Aintree; Should be sharpener for his first run this year and possible one at a price.
Sure Josie Sure: Unbeaten on 3 out of 4 completed starts over hurdles, and was clear in a pair with Nearby (who has since bolted up in the Elite Hurdle); Open to improvement, gets weight from all but three and should not be passed over.
VERDICT: A race which nearly always has a massive effect on the Champion Hurdle, with the likes of Rooster Booster, Detroit City, and most recently, Khyber Kim having won well recently. The 2 I like most (in order of preference) are GENERAL MILLER and Menorah, who were the 1-2 in the John Smith’s Novice Hurdle at Aintree. General Miller benefitted from a lack of pace that day but is now 5lbs better off so should be competitive again, while the good prices about Menorah are now gone. Get Me Out Of Here should leave his reappearance behind and will be thereabouts, while Sure Josie Sure, Sancutaire, Culcablock and Manyriverstocross can’t be discounted.
Sinbad Testimonial 2010/2011 Chase
1.45 Cheltenham
Sinbad Testimonial 2010/2011 Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £31,310
Pick: Forpadydeplasterer (win)
Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at the Grand National Festival (15 lengths) and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events): Disappointed at times too, and has followed that this season with good second on return followed by failing to Complete in the Haldon Gold Cup; This is a tough event for him to run well in.
Tataniano: Won three out of four last season over fences, his three wins coming by an aggregate of 51 lengths (one was a success in corresponding Novice event on this yard last year) ; Became one of favourites for the Champion Chase when romping home with Maghull Chase by 13 lengths; Goes well fresh so no reason he can’t take all the beating.
Oiseau De Nuit: Was third in the Celebration Chase last backed end and ran a great race first time out this season but more needed than what he gave last time, although the yard are in really decent form.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all of them in Grade one company; That stat may not inspire confidence in him but he’s done nothing wrong on any of those runs and serious chance again today.
Gauvain: Went off the boil after winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase 2 years ago, falling to make an impact at Cheltenham and Aintree festival; Won his next 2 starts before being put on side-lines and has switched yards and lost headgear; Interesting runner.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races (including this last season when second behind Well Chief) but has jumping frailties and this looks too much.
Oh Crick: Made waves last season in handicap ranks as a novice chaser and did a double at Aintree and Cheltenham festivals; Ran some good races in face of very stiff tasks last year, but has 12 lengths to find with Forpadydeplasterer from the Champion Chase.
VERDICT: A fascinating clash between the second best established 2 mile chaser and one of last season’s leading novices. FORAPDYDEPLASTERER has finished second 6 times since taking the Arkle here in 2009, but none of these have been due to problems with his jumping or finish efforts and it would be disappointing if he was beaten receiving 5lbs from Tataniano, who is the only other one with serious Champion Chase hopes. It’ll be interesting to see how Gauvain does off a long break.
Sinbad Testimonial 2010/2011 Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £31,310
Pick: Forpadydeplasterer (win)
Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at the Grand National Festival (15 lengths) and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events): Disappointed at times too, and has followed that this season with good second on return followed by failing to Complete in the Haldon Gold Cup; This is a tough event for him to run well in.
Tataniano: Won three out of four last season over fences, his three wins coming by an aggregate of 51 lengths (one was a success in corresponding Novice event on this yard last year) ; Became one of favourites for the Champion Chase when romping home with Maghull Chase by 13 lengths; Goes well fresh so no reason he can’t take all the beating.
Oiseau De Nuit: Was third in the Celebration Chase last backed end and ran a great race first time out this season but more needed than what he gave last time, although the yard are in really decent form.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all of them in Grade one company; That stat may not inspire confidence in him but he’s done nothing wrong on any of those runs and serious chance again today.
Gauvain: Went off the boil after winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase 2 years ago, falling to make an impact at Cheltenham and Aintree festival; Won his next 2 starts before being put on side-lines and has switched yards and lost headgear; Interesting runner.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races (including this last season when second behind Well Chief) but has jumping frailties and this looks too much.
Oh Crick: Made waves last season in handicap ranks as a novice chaser and did a double at Aintree and Cheltenham festivals; Ran some good races in face of very stiff tasks last year, but has 12 lengths to find with Forpadydeplasterer from the Champion Chase.
VERDICT: A fascinating clash between the second best established 2 mile chaser and one of last season’s leading novices. FORAPDYDEPLASTERER has finished second 6 times since taking the Arkle here in 2009, but none of these have been due to problems with his jumping or finish efforts and it would be disappointing if he was beaten receiving 5lbs from Tataniano, who is the only other one with serious Champion Chase hopes. It’ll be interesting to see how Gauvain does off a long break.
Independent Newspaper Novices' Chase (Registered As The November Novices' Chase)
1.10 Cheltenham
Independent Newspaper Novices' Chase (Registered As The November Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £17,103
Pick: Loosen My Load (win)
Kilmurry: Won his first 2 chase starts in good style for Henry De Bromhead and produced new career best for new and inform Tizzard yard when trashing very smart Ghizao (reopposing) ; Even more impressive considering that he was giving away 8lbs in weight and should go well again.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind Fosters Cross; Won Grade 2 over hurdles here a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks; Has been flawless in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event last time; That was weak affair but clearly a class above opposition that day and major player here.
Radium: Made good impression when winning Novice Handicap Hurdle here last year and went on to be second in Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle at the Festival; Impressed with easy win in Beginners Chase and should only improve for that.
Captain Chris: Made a huge impression when winning his first 3 hurdles starts by an aggregate of 36 lengths, including a very strong end of season event here; Well beaten on seasonal return but plainly didn’t stay a yard on ground he hated, and will be much better for that, so major player and exciting recruit to chasing.
Ghizao: Unbeaten in 2 bumpers and went on to achieve useful form in 4 starts over hurdles last season, coming second to Graded winner General Miller; Not up to it at spring festivals but made decent debut when second to Kilmurry; Should jump better for the run but hard to see reverseal of form on worse weight terms.
VERDICT: Some top notch performers have taken this Grade 2 contest in past years- Best Mate, Azertyuiop and Seebald amongst them (not to mention Tatanaino)- and a small but select field assembles for this renewal. It would be some achievement for LOOSEN MY LOAD to give weight and a beating to Radium, Ghizao, and Captain Chris but he’s looked perfect on his 3 chase starts and wins and should run a big one once again. Kilmurrry may well be next best. Paul Nicholls has taken this 4 times since 2001 and as such Ghizao is accorded massive respect while Captain Chris looks made for chasing but I think Loosen My Load can take this.
Independent Newspaper Novices' Chase (Registered As The November Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £17,103
Pick: Loosen My Load (win)
Kilmurry: Won his first 2 chase starts in good style for Henry De Bromhead and produced new career best for new and inform Tizzard yard when trashing very smart Ghizao (reopposing) ; Even more impressive considering that he was giving away 8lbs in weight and should go well again.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind Fosters Cross; Won Grade 2 over hurdles here a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks; Has been flawless in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event last time; That was weak affair but clearly a class above opposition that day and major player here.
Radium: Made good impression when winning Novice Handicap Hurdle here last year and went on to be second in Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle at the Festival; Impressed with easy win in Beginners Chase and should only improve for that.
Captain Chris: Made a huge impression when winning his first 3 hurdles starts by an aggregate of 36 lengths, including a very strong end of season event here; Well beaten on seasonal return but plainly didn’t stay a yard on ground he hated, and will be much better for that, so major player and exciting recruit to chasing.
Ghizao: Unbeaten in 2 bumpers and went on to achieve useful form in 4 starts over hurdles last season, coming second to Graded winner General Miller; Not up to it at spring festivals but made decent debut when second to Kilmurry; Should jump better for the run but hard to see reverseal of form on worse weight terms.
VERDICT: Some top notch performers have taken this Grade 2 contest in past years- Best Mate, Azertyuiop and Seebald amongst them (not to mention Tatanaino)- and a small but select field assembles for this renewal. It would be some achievement for LOOSEN MY LOAD to give weight and a beating to Radium, Ghizao, and Captain Chris but he’s looked perfect on his 3 chase starts and wins and should run a big one once again. Kilmurrry may well be next best. Paul Nicholls has taken this 4 times since 2001 and as such Ghizao is accorded massive respect while Captain Chris looks made for chasing but I think Loosen My Load can take this.
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Open Meet Day 2 2010
An average day yesterday but Sizing Australia rescued us a bit and Cue Card was brilliant when winning the Sharp Novices Hurdle. He jumped superbly (apart from the third) and has now won 2 from 2 at Cheltenham. Talk of the Champion is too strong, but something will really have to up their game to beat him in the Supreme, even this early in the season.
12.50 – A cracking juvenile hurdle here. Titan De Sarti is ready to run according to reports but can’t be backed at 2/1 having not jumped a hurdle in public, just on principle. It would be no surprise to see him win here but he can be opposed. SAM WINNER (win) has done nothing but impress according to stable reports it Paul Nicholls yard and is likely to take all the beating here, having already had 2 good hurdle runs so far in France. Grandouet gives the trainer a strong hand as he impressed paddock watchers at Wetherby before refusing to settle and, with that behind him, there could well be more to come although he’s not well weighted here, and the same can be said of Mason Hindmarsh. Zaeeta should also run well but HORATIO CAINE ran better and better as the race went on at Auteuil and is worth a small each/way poke at 33’s.
1.20 – Wayward Prince was uber impressive on his chasing debut and romped home in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle last year but BERTIE’S DREAM(win) faced a tougher test in the Albert Bartlett and may well be able beat him getting 5lbs coming off the back of a promising run in a better Beginners’ Chase than Wayward Prince won first time out at Galway. Cannington Brook should go well for in the in form Tizzard team but he was well behind Wayward Prince and lacks a run or chasing experience, while Beshabar is given the utmost respect having made a big mark over hurdles (alibeit in handicaps). Chicago Grey romped home in a decent contest last month but must give weight to some very good types here.
1.55 To competitive a race to go in depth about, so the 2 that I like will do fine. ANY CURRENY (each/way) is likely to have come on a lot for his run and will love the strong test of stamina here, especially on a very fair mark. OGEE (each/way)always sticks on gamely wherever he goes and wasn’t far off graded class last year, so he can run well in this after a well – deserved break.
3.10 – Acertak is likely to take the beating and Superced should run well too, but CROSS KENNON (each/way) is 3lbs lower than when running a very good fourth (stayed on strongly) at the Festival in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle and is worth chancing to run to his best here with a run under his belt. OUR BOMBER HARRIS (each/way) is bred to stay and has shown nothing but promise so far, so he gets a second vote.
12.50 – A cracking juvenile hurdle here. Titan De Sarti is ready to run according to reports but can’t be backed at 2/1 having not jumped a hurdle in public, just on principle. It would be no surprise to see him win here but he can be opposed. SAM WINNER (win) has done nothing but impress according to stable reports it Paul Nicholls yard and is likely to take all the beating here, having already had 2 good hurdle runs so far in France. Grandouet gives the trainer a strong hand as he impressed paddock watchers at Wetherby before refusing to settle and, with that behind him, there could well be more to come although he’s not well weighted here, and the same can be said of Mason Hindmarsh. Zaeeta should also run well but HORATIO CAINE ran better and better as the race went on at Auteuil and is worth a small each/way poke at 33’s.
1.20 – Wayward Prince was uber impressive on his chasing debut and romped home in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle last year but BERTIE’S DREAM(win) faced a tougher test in the Albert Bartlett and may well be able beat him getting 5lbs coming off the back of a promising run in a better Beginners’ Chase than Wayward Prince won first time out at Galway. Cannington Brook should go well for in the in form Tizzard team but he was well behind Wayward Prince and lacks a run or chasing experience, while Beshabar is given the utmost respect having made a big mark over hurdles (alibeit in handicaps). Chicago Grey romped home in a decent contest last month but must give weight to some very good types here.
1.55 To competitive a race to go in depth about, so the 2 that I like will do fine. ANY CURRENY (each/way) is likely to have come on a lot for his run and will love the strong test of stamina here, especially on a very fair mark. OGEE (each/way)always sticks on gamely wherever he goes and wasn’t far off graded class last year, so he can run well in this after a well – deserved break.
3.10 – Acertak is likely to take the beating and Superced should run well too, but CROSS KENNON (each/way) is 3lbs lower than when running a very good fourth (stayed on strongly) at the Festival in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle and is worth chancing to run to his best here with a run under his belt. OUR BOMBER HARRIS (each/way) is bred to stay and has shown nothing but promise so far, so he gets a second vote.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase 2010
2.35 Cheltenham
Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £85,515 - 19 run
Picks: Mad Max & Catch Me (both each/way)
Poquelin: Second in this last year; has risen 14lbs since but deservedly so with 7 length romp in the Boylesports.com handicap chase, and a second in the Ryanair (disappointing in Melling Chase); Proved still very effective off this weight when a close second to Monet’s Garden in the Old Roan and not out of it off top weight, especially taking into account that he will be fit and ready to run.
Long Run: Went to Britain with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Looks set for big season and will be winning this if he’s to be taking Grade 1 races.
Mad Max; Giant horse who made waves over hurdles when only beaten in Ballymore Hurdle; Was always going to make up into a better chaser, and made a great start when giving a sound beating to some good horses; Disappointing when beaten into third but proved he wants better ground a lot when running a big race in the Arkle, and excelled himself to finish fourth considering he made massive mistake four out; Put that right when slamming a below – par Somersby at Aintree last time out and should run a big race here.
Thico Polos: Showed a lot of promise last year in decent Novice Chases, (looked very tired when falling after running well for a long way in the Feltham & Second to Punchestowns & French Opera after that); Ran great race to win Haldon Gold Cup 11 days ago although this is much tougher test and penalty, going left-handed and stamina are worries.
Fingeronthepulse: Won Jewson at 2008 Cheltenham Festival and emerged from doldrums to land Galway Plate in July; Lost nothing In defeat when third in Kerry National and should be spot on for this but handicapped also to Career high mark.
Gwanako: Ran only four times last season, but showed promise on all of those runs, making good headway coming to the business end of the Byrne Group Plate; was still in contention for minor honours when falling two out behind Edgbriar over C&D and bold show can’t be ruled out.
Little Josh: Jumped better than most of his previous starts when dead heating with very promising Weird Al at Carlisle; That bare form made him interesting but he tied up very late (four lengths infront) and was getting 6lbs from Weird Al; Bold show possible but others preferred.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of similar contest run here in January but has never won before Christmas (6 out of eight wins in January); 12lbs higher than last winning mark, and competition for lead.
Can’t Buy Time: Capable and fairly handicapped if the cards fall right (Only 6lbs higher than when winning similar course race four starts ago); Would like a strongly run race but worry about jumping holding under pressure here.
Edgebriar: howed a good attitude when winning over course and distance last month in very similar contest and will improve for that (had never previously won on seasonal debut); 8lbs higher in stronger race but has only had 8 starts, so capacity to improve.
Catch Me: One of star Irish Hurdlers 2 seasons ago and looks to have taken to chasing (looked for all the world the winner until falling at the last on his second fencing race);Disappointed as favourite in Hatton’s Grace but still has a lot of promise over fences, as shown when only just beaten by Pandorama and Weapon’s Amnesty last Christmas; That form is extremely strong and entitled to massive respect off 143 considering that he was 160 over hurdles and that Weapons’ Amnesty and Pandorama are both Grade 1 winners; Trip should suit too (always best over hurdles at this distance).
Dancing Tornando: Kerry National runner-up who filled the same position in handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, but jumping has been a worry (check penultimate start) and will be tested massively here.
Great Endeavour: Only his fourth run over fences and ninth of his career when landing the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival; Up 7lbs in a much better race here but open to any amount of improvement and represents a yard (though not trainer) that has provided seven of last fourteen winners.
Sunnyhillboy: Lightly raced, progressive and simply had too much to do when second behind Great Endeavour in the Bryne Group Plate at the Festival( is 2lb better off for 1 ¼ lengths); Will need to travel and jump much better in this but every chance in open race and case can be made that he shouldn’t be 7 points bigger than Great Endeavour.
Passato: Revelation for his small yard over the summer but is now 36lbs higher than for that first win in May; Never really going over C&D last time and although badly hampered 2 out, he no chance at time, so not likely to be winning.
Awesome George: Didn’t make progress expected as a novice last season, but stable in much better form now and made good fist of things at Aintree (would have made a race of things on level weights with winner); That said, needs to improve plenty.
Door Boy: Won first two starts over fences, getting the better of Little Josh and Cappa Bleu at Aintree before winning comfortably giving away weight against vastly inferior opposition; Looked well beaten when falling in Jewson Novice’s Chase and while case can be made on some form, jumping cracked in Jewson; Still open to improvement but really needs it.
Gonebyondrecall: Made major improvement of late for headgear p Killarney maiden win in a handicap at Listowel in September; Disappointing when stepped up in grade last time and hard to make a strong case for him here.
Pigeon Island: Came hard and late to win Grand Annual here last season at the festival but hammered off new mark at Aintree and didn’t look any better when well beaten on return; Headgear should do the trick as for keeping him concentrated and jumping, but up against it in a major way.
VERDICT: Another top class renewal of a race that has produced numerous high class horses such as Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Celestial Gold, Fondmort and Cyfor Malta. The horse in this year’s contest that fits that profile is the outstandingly promising Long Run, who defied jumping errors to hack up over 3 miles and 2 miles in graded company before being unable to get away with it in the RSA Chase. He’s outstandingly handicapped today and will be winning this if he’s going to be taking Grade 1 races this season, over a trip he should like. The reason why he’s not the pick is because he’s made serious mistakes on every start in the UK, and won’t be allowed to here. Great Endeavour is widely tipped to beat Long Run but he’s in a much better race with a 7lbs higher mark and will have it tougher today, as well as the fact that he’s not a certainty to confirm form with Sunnyhillboy. Both should go close but this will be harder for them. There haven't been as many second season chasers as good as MAD MAX than can get into this off 11-5 and with Barry Geraghty on board he must have a very solid chance here, following off from 2 really promising runs in good races last year. Another second season novice who has got in lightly here is CATCH ME, who is entitled to massive respect off 143 considering that he was 160 over hurdles, Weapons’ Amnesty and Pandorama are both Grade 1 winners, this is his trip and Tranquil Sea (raced at lower level over hurdles and fences) was rated 148 coming into this last year. Others to note are Poquelin who loves the course and distance and ran a screamer when second to Monet’s Garden on his return, Thico Polos, who made an impressive reappearance in winning the Haldon Gold Cup, and Edgebriar, who has won a very similar sort of race recently.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £85,515 - 19 run
Picks: Mad Max & Catch Me (both each/way)
Poquelin: Second in this last year; has risen 14lbs since but deservedly so with 7 length romp in the Boylesports.com handicap chase, and a second in the Ryanair (disappointing in Melling Chase); Proved still very effective off this weight when a close second to Monet’s Garden in the Old Roan and not out of it off top weight, especially taking into account that he will be fit and ready to run.
Long Run: Went to Britain with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Looks set for big season and will be winning this if he’s to be taking Grade 1 races.
Mad Max; Giant horse who made waves over hurdles when only beaten in Ballymore Hurdle; Was always going to make up into a better chaser, and made a great start when giving a sound beating to some good horses; Disappointing when beaten into third but proved he wants better ground a lot when running a big race in the Arkle, and excelled himself to finish fourth considering he made massive mistake four out; Put that right when slamming a below – par Somersby at Aintree last time out and should run a big race here.
Thico Polos: Showed a lot of promise last year in decent Novice Chases, (looked very tired when falling after running well for a long way in the Feltham & Second to Punchestowns & French Opera after that); Ran great race to win Haldon Gold Cup 11 days ago although this is much tougher test and penalty, going left-handed and stamina are worries.
Fingeronthepulse: Won Jewson at 2008 Cheltenham Festival and emerged from doldrums to land Galway Plate in July; Lost nothing In defeat when third in Kerry National and should be spot on for this but handicapped also to Career high mark.
Gwanako: Ran only four times last season, but showed promise on all of those runs, making good headway coming to the business end of the Byrne Group Plate; was still in contention for minor honours when falling two out behind Edgbriar over C&D and bold show can’t be ruled out.
Little Josh: Jumped better than most of his previous starts when dead heating with very promising Weird Al at Carlisle; That bare form made him interesting but he tied up very late (four lengths infront) and was getting 6lbs from Weird Al; Bold show possible but others preferred.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of similar contest run here in January but has never won before Christmas (6 out of eight wins in January); 12lbs higher than last winning mark, and competition for lead.
Can’t Buy Time: Capable and fairly handicapped if the cards fall right (Only 6lbs higher than when winning similar course race four starts ago); Would like a strongly run race but worry about jumping holding under pressure here.
Edgebriar: howed a good attitude when winning over course and distance last month in very similar contest and will improve for that (had never previously won on seasonal debut); 8lbs higher in stronger race but has only had 8 starts, so capacity to improve.
Catch Me: One of star Irish Hurdlers 2 seasons ago and looks to have taken to chasing (looked for all the world the winner until falling at the last on his second fencing race);Disappointed as favourite in Hatton’s Grace but still has a lot of promise over fences, as shown when only just beaten by Pandorama and Weapon’s Amnesty last Christmas; That form is extremely strong and entitled to massive respect off 143 considering that he was 160 over hurdles and that Weapons’ Amnesty and Pandorama are both Grade 1 winners; Trip should suit too (always best over hurdles at this distance).
Dancing Tornando: Kerry National runner-up who filled the same position in handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, but jumping has been a worry (check penultimate start) and will be tested massively here.
Great Endeavour: Only his fourth run over fences and ninth of his career when landing the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival; Up 7lbs in a much better race here but open to any amount of improvement and represents a yard (though not trainer) that has provided seven of last fourteen winners.
Sunnyhillboy: Lightly raced, progressive and simply had too much to do when second behind Great Endeavour in the Bryne Group Plate at the Festival( is 2lb better off for 1 ¼ lengths); Will need to travel and jump much better in this but every chance in open race and case can be made that he shouldn’t be 7 points bigger than Great Endeavour.
Passato: Revelation for his small yard over the summer but is now 36lbs higher than for that first win in May; Never really going over C&D last time and although badly hampered 2 out, he no chance at time, so not likely to be winning.
Awesome George: Didn’t make progress expected as a novice last season, but stable in much better form now and made good fist of things at Aintree (would have made a race of things on level weights with winner); That said, needs to improve plenty.
Door Boy: Won first two starts over fences, getting the better of Little Josh and Cappa Bleu at Aintree before winning comfortably giving away weight against vastly inferior opposition; Looked well beaten when falling in Jewson Novice’s Chase and while case can be made on some form, jumping cracked in Jewson; Still open to improvement but really needs it.
Gonebyondrecall: Made major improvement of late for headgear p Killarney maiden win in a handicap at Listowel in September; Disappointing when stepped up in grade last time and hard to make a strong case for him here.
Pigeon Island: Came hard and late to win Grand Annual here last season at the festival but hammered off new mark at Aintree and didn’t look any better when well beaten on return; Headgear should do the trick as for keeping him concentrated and jumping, but up against it in a major way.
VERDICT: Another top class renewal of a race that has produced numerous high class horses such as Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Celestial Gold, Fondmort and Cyfor Malta. The horse in this year’s contest that fits that profile is the outstandingly promising Long Run, who defied jumping errors to hack up over 3 miles and 2 miles in graded company before being unable to get away with it in the RSA Chase. He’s outstandingly handicapped today and will be winning this if he’s going to be taking Grade 1 races this season, over a trip he should like. The reason why he’s not the pick is because he’s made serious mistakes on every start in the UK, and won’t be allowed to here. Great Endeavour is widely tipped to beat Long Run but he’s in a much better race with a 7lbs higher mark and will have it tougher today, as well as the fact that he’s not a certainty to confirm form with Sunnyhillboy. Both should go close but this will be harder for them. There haven't been as many second season chasers as good as MAD MAX than can get into this off 11-5 and with Barry Geraghty on board he must have a very solid chance here, following off from 2 really promising runs in good races last year. Another second season novice who has got in lightly here is CATCH ME, who is entitled to massive respect off 143 considering that he was 160 over hurdles, Weapons’ Amnesty and Pandorama are both Grade 1 winners, this is his trip and Tranquil Sea (raced at lower level over hurdles and fences) was rated 148 coming into this last year. Others to note are Poquelin who loves the course and distance and ran a screamer when second to Monet’s Garden on his return, Thico Polos, who made an impressive reappearance in winning the Haldon Gold Cup, and Edgebriar, who has won a very similar sort of race recently.
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Open Meeting - Cheltenham Collection Sharp Novices' Hurdle 2010
1.50 Cheltenham
Cheltenham Collection Sharp Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Ballyadam Brook: Had made very good impression in Irish scene over last summer with wins at Killarney, Galway and Listowel and ran well giving over a stone to progressive mare Oiliy; This is even tougher though, despite the fact he’s off level weights.
Cue Card: Won easily on debut and then ran away with Cheltenham Bumper last year, pulling clear of Grade 2 winner Al Ferof and useful field with ease; Form been boosted by Dare Me, Megastar, Made In Time, Hidden Universe and Dunraven Storm (reopposes); Made a perfect debut over hurdles when jumping with fluency over 2m4f at Aintree and looks set for big things, so one to beat here.
Dunraven Storm: Only defeat in 5 came in the Champion Bumper last season which can be easily forgiven seeing as it was his second run; Has been unbeaten since, taking novice hurdle at Exeter by 11 lengths and then winning very strong event at Ascot in good style last time; Major player.
Far Away So Close: Ninth in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle last year but most of the also rans in that race were quite flattered to be where they ended up; Has won his last 2 races and showed grit to get better off decent rival last time but this is much tougher.
King Of The Realm: Made decent impression when winning 2 of 3 bumper starts last season, but easily career best when beating useful enough yardstick in Fulin on first meeting of the season; Should go well again.
Masaka Pony: Really found his feet with aplomb this season, improving again to win handicaps at Sedgefield and Wetherby on last 2 runs; This a much better race though and possibly well placed to win on both occasions.
Owen Glendower: Won once over bumpers but has improved a good deal over hurdles, coming in easily under a penalty at Stratford last time; Will come on again although this is a very steep rise in grade.
Valid Point: Looks to be biting off more than he can chew after cutting little ice in 3 runs over hurdles.
VERDICT: A race more to watch and enjoy, and a very good pointer for the season ahead, with useful novice chaser Loosen My Load having won last year and I’msingingtheblues having taken a recent renewal. Another decent field comes here today. Champion Bumper winner CUE CARD is very short but he did nothing wrong at his hurdles on his debut and should take all the beating today, although expect Dunraven Storm to thrown down a strong challenge. Owen Glendower, and Ballyadam Brook are good enough but King Of The Night may be the biggest threat; He was unextended to beat Fulin by 9 lengths on the opening day of the season.
Cheltenham Collection Sharp Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Ballyadam Brook: Had made very good impression in Irish scene over last summer with wins at Killarney, Galway and Listowel and ran well giving over a stone to progressive mare Oiliy; This is even tougher though, despite the fact he’s off level weights.
Cue Card: Won easily on debut and then ran away with Cheltenham Bumper last year, pulling clear of Grade 2 winner Al Ferof and useful field with ease; Form been boosted by Dare Me, Megastar, Made In Time, Hidden Universe and Dunraven Storm (reopposes); Made a perfect debut over hurdles when jumping with fluency over 2m4f at Aintree and looks set for big things, so one to beat here.
Dunraven Storm: Only defeat in 5 came in the Champion Bumper last season which can be easily forgiven seeing as it was his second run; Has been unbeaten since, taking novice hurdle at Exeter by 11 lengths and then winning very strong event at Ascot in good style last time; Major player.
Far Away So Close: Ninth in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle last year but most of the also rans in that race were quite flattered to be where they ended up; Has won his last 2 races and showed grit to get better off decent rival last time but this is much tougher.
King Of The Realm: Made decent impression when winning 2 of 3 bumper starts last season, but easily career best when beating useful enough yardstick in Fulin on first meeting of the season; Should go well again.
Masaka Pony: Really found his feet with aplomb this season, improving again to win handicaps at Sedgefield and Wetherby on last 2 runs; This a much better race though and possibly well placed to win on both occasions.
Owen Glendower: Won once over bumpers but has improved a good deal over hurdles, coming in easily under a penalty at Stratford last time; Will come on again although this is a very steep rise in grade.
Valid Point: Looks to be biting off more than he can chew after cutting little ice in 3 runs over hurdles.
VERDICT: A race more to watch and enjoy, and a very good pointer for the season ahead, with useful novice chaser Loosen My Load having won last year and I’msingingtheblues having taken a recent renewal. Another decent field comes here today. Champion Bumper winner CUE CARD is very short but he did nothing wrong at his hurdles on his debut and should take all the beating today, although expect Dunraven Storm to thrown down a strong challenge. Owen Glendower, and Ballyadam Brook are good enough but King Of The Night may be the biggest threat; He was unextended to beat Fulin by 9 lengths on the opening day of the season.
Open Meeting 2010 - Day 1 Supporting Races
A great night yesterday for the blog with an awful stalemate at Eastlands providing us with a win courtesy of a 1 goal start for City. While neither team really looked like scoring, it must be a huge worry for City fans that despite a massive spending spree and the likes of Yaya Toure, Milner, Tevez and David Silva, they were playing with 3 Defensive midfielders, not the kind of attitude that will win you the title, and away trips are still an annoying problem for such a huge squad. It remains to be seen how Balotelli will bring more force into the squad, but there are some worrying omens for the Blues. Liverpool haven’t been beaten in 5 games (four in the League) but the general deterioration of their performance has to be a big worry as they will need another huge effort at Stoke and they looked tired in the 2nd half, despite the fact they should have won the game. Newcastle once again suffered a big win hangover, and Bolton won with the 1 goal start courtesy of a draw.
With the Breeders’ Cup done and finished for this year (and what a meet it was, which will get its own blog) the focus is fully on the jumps for me. The Open meeting is when the season really gets going – three days of the highest quality to get the jumping juices flowing, with seven Graded races topped by the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Among famous recent winners at the fixture are Imperial Commander, Katchit, Well Chief, Rooster Booster and Sizing Europe, along with the likes of Punchestowns too.
1.15 – The opening race is a tight looking Conditionals H’cap chase, so only a small each/way will do (probably better left altogether). There’s likely to be little or no mileage with Quattrocento’s price, and THEATRICAL MOMENT (each/way) ran well in the William Hill Trophy at the festival last season, and was probably over the top in the Scottish National. This is easier than both those tasks and he should go well off a lenient mark.
2.25 – The likes of Rivaliste, Dave’s Dream, and Du Boitron should have good chances if wound up, while Keelaghan has to be respected coming from the shrewd Tony Martin yard with Ap McCoy up, but a rise of 14lbs for a 12 length win gives SAFARI JOURNEY (win) a pretty fair chance of going on from his impressive romp in a very good handicap at Ascot last time. His yard are in amazing form and he should be going close.
3.00 - Joe Lively is a fascinating runner as he should go well fresh and looks the type for these fences, while Lacdoudal is well weighted and evergreen, but the focus will be on Garde Champetre, who goes for his sixth Cross – Country success here. He’s likely to run as well as ever but evens is very short for a horse who couldn’t get back into it when hampered badly at the festival Cross-Country chase last year and SIZING AUSTRALIA is a fantastic each/way call at 9’s with Bet365 (at time of writing) for a horse who has jumped very well over these fences before and was twice placed behind Garde Champetre last season, including when third in this event, but looked an improved animal when finally breaking his duck over fences in a beginners' event at Thurles last month.
4.05 - A cracking novice’s chase with last year’s World Hurdle runner up, a double Grade 1 winner over hurdles, and a horse who was widely tipped for the Neptune before finishing fifth in the Coral Cup. Time For Rupert would be the pick on overall form, but he does seem to need a run first time out this season (would like a longer trip as well) and surely REVE DE SIVOLA (win), second to the unbeaten Peddlers Cross at the Festival after having won the Challow Hurdle before winning at the Punchestown Festival, has a huge chance of winning here first time out. He goes well fresh and should be hard to beat.
You’d expect Mr Thriller expect him to win races (was going places before being stopped by an overinflated mark last season), there are two concerns in that he's shown a liking for genuinely soft ground in the past and hasn't brought his best to this venue.
Quantitveeasing adds depth to an already fascinating contest. He was talked about as the next big thing before being beaten by Phildippes (a useful horse in his own right) at Newbury anfd ran a fantastic race for one so inexperienced in the Coral Cup. Punchestown was too much for him but he should be much better over fences and will go close here. Othermix is exposed but sets a useful standard and sets a good standard.
Recommendations
1.15 Cheltenham
0.5 pts each/way Theatrical Moment
2.25 Cheltenham
1 pt win Safari Journey
3.00 Cheltenham
2 pts each/way Sizing Europe
4.20 Cheltenham
3 pts win Reve De Sivola
With the Breeders’ Cup done and finished for this year (and what a meet it was, which will get its own blog) the focus is fully on the jumps for me. The Open meeting is when the season really gets going – three days of the highest quality to get the jumping juices flowing, with seven Graded races topped by the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Among famous recent winners at the fixture are Imperial Commander, Katchit, Well Chief, Rooster Booster and Sizing Europe, along with the likes of Punchestowns too.
1.15 – The opening race is a tight looking Conditionals H’cap chase, so only a small each/way will do (probably better left altogether). There’s likely to be little or no mileage with Quattrocento’s price, and THEATRICAL MOMENT (each/way) ran well in the William Hill Trophy at the festival last season, and was probably over the top in the Scottish National. This is easier than both those tasks and he should go well off a lenient mark.
2.25 – The likes of Rivaliste, Dave’s Dream, and Du Boitron should have good chances if wound up, while Keelaghan has to be respected coming from the shrewd Tony Martin yard with Ap McCoy up, but a rise of 14lbs for a 12 length win gives SAFARI JOURNEY (win) a pretty fair chance of going on from his impressive romp in a very good handicap at Ascot last time. His yard are in amazing form and he should be going close.
3.00 - Joe Lively is a fascinating runner as he should go well fresh and looks the type for these fences, while Lacdoudal is well weighted and evergreen, but the focus will be on Garde Champetre, who goes for his sixth Cross – Country success here. He’s likely to run as well as ever but evens is very short for a horse who couldn’t get back into it when hampered badly at the festival Cross-Country chase last year and SIZING AUSTRALIA is a fantastic each/way call at 9’s with Bet365 (at time of writing) for a horse who has jumped very well over these fences before and was twice placed behind Garde Champetre last season, including when third in this event, but looked an improved animal when finally breaking his duck over fences in a beginners' event at Thurles last month.
4.05 - A cracking novice’s chase with last year’s World Hurdle runner up, a double Grade 1 winner over hurdles, and a horse who was widely tipped for the Neptune before finishing fifth in the Coral Cup. Time For Rupert would be the pick on overall form, but he does seem to need a run first time out this season (would like a longer trip as well) and surely REVE DE SIVOLA (win), second to the unbeaten Peddlers Cross at the Festival after having won the Challow Hurdle before winning at the Punchestown Festival, has a huge chance of winning here first time out. He goes well fresh and should be hard to beat.
You’d expect Mr Thriller expect him to win races (was going places before being stopped by an overinflated mark last season), there are two concerns in that he's shown a liking for genuinely soft ground in the past and hasn't brought his best to this venue.
Quantitveeasing adds depth to an already fascinating contest. He was talked about as the next big thing before being beaten by Phildippes (a useful horse in his own right) at Newbury anfd ran a fantastic race for one so inexperienced in the Coral Cup. Punchestown was too much for him but he should be much better over fences and will go close here. Othermix is exposed but sets a useful standard and sets a good standard.
Recommendations
1.15 Cheltenham
0.5 pts each/way Theatrical Moment
2.25 Cheltenham
1 pt win Safari Journey
3.00 Cheltenham
2 pts each/way Sizing Europe
4.20 Cheltenham
3 pts win Reve De Sivola
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)