With four wins this season, including the last Grand Prix at
the Nurburing, one could forgive punters for backing Sebastian Vettel to
stretch his Championship lead yet further from his 35 point winning margin, but
never at one point has he looked more vulnerable this season and the Lotus
double team of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean can take revenge in the
scoring heat of Hungary this weekend.
 |
| With fierce track heat, Lotus should feel confident about another bold showing this weekend |
At the Nubruring three weeks ago Grosjean was actually best
placed to take the win over the Red Bull but a safety car bought the field back
together on lap 21, right when he was putting the pedal to the medal, and
bought teammate and number 1 Kimi Raikkonen back into the equation, leading Lotus
to put Grosjean under orders and reject the idea of a long third stint. That,
and the poorly times positional switch late on, allowed Vettel to take victory
by a hair’s breadth but in the same conditions this week, all being well, I can’t
fathom why anyone would back the world champion at 6/4 compared to the 11/2 available
for Raikkonen and the 18/1 for Grosjean with William Hill.
It’s halfway through the season and we’re still on the tetchy
subject of tyre wear for many, which has become the main talking point of the
season and looks likely to be the defining topic of this campaign. Pirelli’s
softer compounds have gained a reputation for being just that – soft – and tyre
wear is a huge factor and in many cases, the difference between victory and
defeat now on raceday. The hotter the track, the more the tyres will blister
and those who can extend their stints can make huge gains. With a European
summer hotter than many in recent years, while we think we’ve got it hot in
Britain, some weather forecasters are predicting temperatures to peak at 40C on
Sunday, with track temperatures hovering around 50C, truly blistering temperatures
even by hot day standards. Pirelli had planned to use the medium and hard compounds
only, but the blowouts at Silverstone and a much needed investigation following
that has seen Pirelli gain permission to return to it’s 2012 configuration,
which allows them to use the soft and super soft compounds.
We already know that Lotus excel at saving their tyres, and
in the heat they seem to find a new level of performance and their qualifying
performance three weeks ago was their best since Spain in May last year, with
both cars just half a second off Hamilton’s pole position. The rarely used
track in Hungary can be difficult for overtaking with the racing line much more
important than elsewhere, but it sounds as if Lotus can be hopeful of a strong
guide position and even then the length of their stints will give them a
natural advantage in what was already a quick car.
Raikkonen has 5 podiums from 9 races this season and is a
solid bet for a top three step again, while Grosjean is 4/1 in the same market
and they look like value, with our normal banker of the weekend – the double
points finish – far too short.
Lewis Hamilton’s three wins (a record bettered only by the
four of Michael Schumacher) make him an eyecather here, but his tyres have
given out on several occasions on racedays and those who ant to support him
should back him for a hat trick of pole positions at Paddy Power’s 9/4.
Advice
1 pt Kimi Raikkonen (11/2 Hills, Sportingbet)
1 pt each/way Romain Grosjean (18/1 Hills)
4 pts Kimi Raikkonen for podium finish (evs Ladbrokes)
1 pt Romain Grosjean podium finish (4/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
No comments:
Post a Comment