The first summit finish of the Tour de France is often
described as the stage that tells us who won’t be winning the Tour’, and while
there were plenty of riders who found their chances well and truly over, we may
well have seen our 1-2-3 in the shape of Chris Froome, Richie Porte, and
Alejandro Valverde, after the field was blown apart on Ax3 Domaines with Froome
producing a career best performance to beat his teammate Porte – the only other
rider who was within a minute - by an astonishing 51 seconds, the margin by
which he leads the general classification. Valverde sits at 1.25 behind and the
margin to the rest – including the likes of Alberto Contador and Joaquim
Rodgriguez to name but two – is upto nearly three minutes with a 33KM time
trial – a noted weakness for several of the climbers in the field – still to
come before Mont Ventoux. While there were many outstanding rides yesterday –
especially the effort of Peter Kennaugh on the Col De Paliheres and it’s
descent – our plaudits for the ride of the day go to Nairo Quintana, who blew
apart the race on the Paliheres and rode a magnificent race to gain a minute on
the Sky train, stay out in front until there was 6 kilometres to go and then
limit his losses to the tune of just 1.41 despite being out on his feet. With
more restraint, our white jersey tip could still make some serious gains in the
tour’s explosive third week.
Chris Froome’s first day in yellow won’t be an easy one but
for the first time on the tour, this looks to be a certain breakaway day. A
mountain stage – the second of only two in the Pyrenees – today’s route is a
short sharp one that offers opportunities to lose time rather than gain it with
5 climbs on the route, including four Category 1’s – The Col De Portet-d’Aspet
(5.4km @ 6.9%) Col De Mente (7km @ 7.7%), Col De Peyresourde (13.2km @ 7%), Col
de Val Louron-Azet (7.4km @ 8.3%), and La Hourquette d’Ancizan (9.9km @ 7.5km).
It’s clear that with such a short stage, and such high
altitude repeatedly, that many will be vulnerable and many are likely to
suffer, but with the final climb coming some 30KM from the finish, there’s
little to be gained for the GC favourites here by going for long range attacks
with so much time to make up ground late on.
With 4 Category 1 climbs today is the most pivotal stage in
the battle for the Polka Dot Jersey and a fairly large break could get away
early and battle it out over the peaks. It’s no surprise to see Thomas Vockeler
of Europcar – seen a little yesterday on the Paliheres when he got left behind
by Quintana and then blew out totally – as a favourite, given his excellent
descending skills especially from a long range. He should make it into the
day’s break and give a good account, but teammate Pierre Rolland – wearing the
jersey with Chris Froome, the joint current leader with 31 points a piece
wearing yellow – has raced like Europcar’s main man for this event and looked
strong on the Paliheres when taking a bunch of points before blowing out on the
final climb to Ax-3 Domaines. An excellent descender – he went clear of the
main pack on the descent and caught upto Quinatana – and also a better climber
than most who may make it into the break, Rolland should be allowed plenty of
rope at 5.03 down, may have allies within the break – much like last year when
taking the summit finish to La Touissere from a break after teammate Cristophe
Kern took huge turns on the front driving and keeping the break clear for long
enough that he could keep clear – such as David Valliux, Kevin Reza, and David
Malcairne – and just looks far too big at 20/1 with Coral, who also pay four
places.
For a flyer, take Euskatel’s Gorka Izagierre, a strong
climber who will took to make a bold show close to home and will be given
plenty of rope.
Advice
1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (20/1 Coral)
0.5 pt each/way Gorka Izagirre (66/1 Totesport)
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