The 100th Tour De France has already had plenty
of thrills and spills but today brings the first real mountain test ending with
a summit finish and we are likely to find out just who of the main contenders
are in the form to take the Maillot Jaune to Paris and Chris Froome looks ready
to take the yellow jersey at the first real chance for him, and like Bradley
Wiggins last year, take it all the way to Paris.
Last year’s summit finishes weren’t the most thrilling
affairs but this year’s tour has a stellar climbing cast, all of whom are at
least 6 seconds behind the favourite – one of the best time trialists in the
field – which should ensure some moves on either the hors categorie Cola De
Parliheres, which at 15.3KM with an average of 8% and some ramps nearing 10%,
or the short but sharp trek up to Ax 3 Domaines, which is much like the earlier
climb apart from the fact it’s half the length, which once again provides the
opportunity for the sharper attacks with a section at 5.2% with two kilomereres
to go.
Last year was famed for the dominance of the Sky train going
up the mountains, but this year might be different with the emphasis on
strongmen in Brasilsford’s squad this year and we can expect their dominance
and rhythm to be challenged earlier and far more often this year with pure
climbers aiming and needing to take time from Froome from the start. 
Secondly, having such a strong cast of climbers, several
teams have two top contenders in their ranks; BMC (Evans/Van Garderen),
Movistar (Valverde/Quinatana), Saxo Tinkoff (Contador/Rodgers) and Katusha (Moreno/Rodriguez) to name just four, and of those today’s finish looks most likely to suit a climber like
Quintana, one of the hottest properties in cycling for some time since his win
at the Tour D’Lavenir three years ago. A stage winner at the Criterium Du
Dauphine last year, Quintana was utterly superb when he won the queen stage of
the Tour of the Basque Country by sprinting to victory after the final climb in
Eibar–Arra and then taking the overall win in the time trial. He’s had two
crashes in recent days, but if fully recovered, should be well suited by a
shorter test than some of the finishes at this tour due to his explosive
nature. Of course some will feel that he’s a super domestique to Alejandro
Valverde but he may well be given a free rlde and given the aggressive nature of
his leader it’s hard not to imagine him making moves earlier.
Our pre tour ante post tip of Joaquim Rodriguez is another
name who would be suited by this short sharp summit finish, and at prices
ranging from 11/2 to 7/1 he’s a tempting choice, but Froome – who has beaten
him on every occasion since their first meeting of the season in the Tour of
Oman – looks to be an outstanding favourite. On summit finishes this year,
Froome has form figures of 211212, and few have been able to live with his
short range attacks from the finish. Obviously we can expect the best climbers
to have peaked – including Alberto Contador, who was the only one of the main
contenders to live with him on the summit finish to Valmorel in the Dauphine
and a tempting 8/1 – for this moment, but at 11/4 Froome is easily the most
convincing of the favourites and isn’t facing anyone he hasn’t beaten before.
Advice
3 pts Chris Froome (11/4 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way Nairo Quintana (16/1 Boylesports)
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