Sussex Stakes 2013

3.05 Goodwood

Qipco Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £170,130

Advice: 2 pts win Toronado (11/4 general)

Declaration of War: Highly touted before he arrived at Ballydoyle and gave strong visual impression when landing hat trick of small races after promising Irish debut; Letdown in the Lockinge but much better the last twice, winning Queen Anne with sharp turn of foot and then taking second in the Eclipse latest (hung right, hampered third); Formline through Mars gives him strong chance and respected.

Gregorian: Seems to be building upon his promising last season in big style time time around, winning well at Epsom before third in Queen Anne; Not turning around that form with Declaration of War though and others preferred.

Reply: A useful  horse in his own right but here to set a strong pace for stablemate.

Trade Storm: Progressed at a rate of knots over the winter in Dubai, taking handicap by 3 & ½ lengths before Zabeel Mile , both times impressing with late burst then; Since been exposed as a very smart horse who might not be upto Group 1 level although overly strong pace is likely to benefit him.

Dawn Approach: The outstanding 2yo who cemented his position as leading 3yo so far this year when making amends for Derby debacle with hard fought win from Toronado at Ascot, the pair both being bumped before fighting out a dramatic finish, with Dawn Approach actually bring passed and then battling back to take the win; Little separates the two but obvious chance today and one could say he sets the standard, while entitled to be in top shape after 43 day break (that run came very quickly after Derby); Will be hard to pass.

Leitir Mor: Very useful in his own right and quite a good sprinter, but will be setting a strong pace for Dawn Approach to chase.

Toronado: Always exciting as 2yo but really sparked the imagination when destroying opposition in Craven Stakes; Disappointing in Guineas when ‘only fourth’, running too hard too early and having nothing left with which to answer burst of Dawn Approach, but found to be wrong afterwards and return in fine form when beaten just a short head in St James’s Palace Stakes, bumped at the same time as Dawn Approach and arguably more baldy affected given he had to go wider, although he did have his fair chance; No reason why he can’t reverse form today given the minuscule margin that separated the two.

VERDICT: The highlight of the week with yet another ‘duel on the downs’ although it would be foolish to forget Declaration of War’s chances given that he’s closely matched on a line through Eclipse fourth Mars. Given how little separated the two last time, there’s no reason for Dawn Approach  to be so much shorter than TORONADO, who gets the vote on value grounds although one could argue that he should have won at Royal Ascot last time. Declaration of War won’t be far behind.