After a fast and furious team time trial yesterday –
although there were no real gaps worth talking about with only 1.46 separating
the twenty two teams – we have another test of speed today with a rolling stage
that could be classed as medium mountain.
It’s a long route and as we speak, a break – Yuri Arashiro,
Antony Delaplace, Alexey Lutsenko, Romain Sicard, and Kevin Reza and Thomas De
Gendt - is already some 12 minuites ahead. Today’s rolling terrain should suit
those escapees, but with a number of teams having come close but not taken a
win so far on this year’s tour, it’s hard not to believe there are a few teams
who believe that if they can get their fast men over the last two climbs – then
the two part Col de la Gineste , which starts at 6% before levelling out to
drag across the Plateau de Carpiagne for 4km where exposed roads await before
rising for 1,500m at 5%. The descent, much like most at this tour, will make a
chase hard and reward positioning, lending the advantage towards strongmen and
climbers.
With a flat last 5KM the chance is there for the sprinters
to take it if they can hang in there, but it’s hard not to believe that the
climb will be raced at a very high pace and the likes of Cavendish, Gripel,
Kittel, Degenkolb and co will do well to keep in touch. Current green jersey
Peter Sagan has been second on two stages so far where one could argue that he
was unlucky – the Bunch having let Bakelants and others go 6KM out, and then
Daryl Impey’s last corner namourver to set up Gerrans – but if the pack brings
the break back then he may not have to face Griepel, Cavendish, and co and is
well capable of going solo before the to of the climb or on the descents. At
6/1 he makes the most appeal of the main favourites, while Thomas De Gendt –
third in the Giro D’Italia last year after his brilliant Stelvio attack and a
known long distance attacker – is worth a small wager at 25/1 in play with many
firms.
Advice
1 pt Peter Sagan (6/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt Thomas De Gendt (25/1 Hills)
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