After one of the best renewals of the tour in recent memory
yesterday may have seemed flat but in hindsight it was foolish onto to
anticipate the effect of the double climb of Alpe D’Huez would have on the
peloton and a rest was understandable.
Chris Froome had to deal with a wet descent and some slight
pace raising by Team Saxo-Tinkoff, but still holds a 5 minute lead over Alberto
Contador and needs simply to defend it over today’s stage – set up to be as
explosive as possible – to take a second tour for Team Sky and Britain. The
next 5 in the general classification though are separated by just 47 seconds
however and with podium places up for grabs amongst the world’s best climbers,
there’s sure to be action – just none of it affecting the race winner elect,
although Froome’s alertness will not be fading at this point.
The day starts out tough with the Cote Du Pouget (5.4 km /
avg. 5.9 %) and Col de Leschaux (3.6 km / avg. 6.1 %) both located within the
first 18 km before two category three climbs, the second of which has an
average of 6.9%, but the deciding factors will be Mont Revard and Annecy
Semnoz. Revard averages just 5.6% but starts steep, is nearly 16KM and will be
raced extremely hard with just 64 km to go from the beginning and 48 to go from
the summit, making it a perfect strategic launching pad. The final climb to
Semnoz is short but brutal, with only one section at less than 7.5%, coming
early from 3-4KM – the rest just gets harder and harder. The length of the
climb and the continued sharp percentages will suit short, sharp punchy bursts
and favour speed, which makes it no surprise to see super-climbers such as
current white jersey Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez, looking for a podium
place, who understandably dominate the market with Chris Froome looking to get
home safely and Alberto Contador looking increasingly tired having tried
everything since day 1. 
We’ve been with Nairo from the beginning of the tour at
every opportunity and while he’s now just a best of 2/1, if there’s a final
selection he has to be the favourite and the added motivation of taking the
king of the mountains jersey with a win today, and also potentially second
place on the podium in Paris. It should be noted that when a break goes, the
price should grow to something more backable for those with quick fingers. There’s
always potential for a break to ruin things, but his Movistar team and him will
surely have eyes on the prize today with such motivation - and with several top
climbers yet to win a stage, Contador, Valverde and Purito amongst them – there
will be motivation to try at least to reel in an effort.
Should a selection form, Quintana looks the strongest
climber in the race left by any rate and while he’s only 2/1 he has a realistic
chance of crowning a fine debut tour with a win today. It’s hard to discount
Purito’, who has done so well in this last week, and 4/6 on him to beat Chris
Froome is tempting, but a victory for Froome would give him the polka dot
jersey which we backed him for, so that’s left alone.
Advice
2 pts Nairo Quintana (2/1 Bet365, Skybet)
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