It feels like this is the day we’ve been waiting for. After
14 of the most eventful stages we’ve seen in the recent history of the Tour –
or at least the most eventful first two weeks in recent times – and now the fun
can really begin with one of the hardest tour endings in history with 5
straight climbing tests before Paris after Stage 16’s descent to Gap.
Today however, is arguably the most important test. We could
spend an age explaining today’s stage but it’s pretty much rolling flat until
Ventoux starts with the Col De Madeline a harder test than any of the
categorised climbs. Ventoux itself – one of the hardest climbs in cycling – is
a 20KM slog which starts gently enough to be approached at an high pace, before
eight kilometres at least %8.8. By now a selection should have formed, and
there are good attacking opportunities at kilometres 13 until 16, none of which
go above 7.7 before the road kicks up again.
We’ve already had one summit finish, and there Chris Froome
dismantled the opposition, beating Richie Porte by 51 seconds and the rest by
more than a minute. That came on the short, sharp climb of Ax-3 Domaines but
crucially after the Hors Categorie Pahliehres, the highest point of this year’s
tour, which whitted down the field to a selection.
It’s possible to argue that Froome won by so far because of
the pace that Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte set, but he was clearly the best
climber on the day and was a very worthy winner on merit. Having taken his form
figures on summit finishes to 2112121,
he’ll take the beating but is a slightly short price for one who might be
isolated and doesn’t have to go all out to win today – despite his flashes with
danger in the yellow jersey he’s still got a lead of 2’28 and above.
The week’s biggest team loser has been Movistar by a
distance, but they could well gain redemption today with their superduo of
Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde. Valverde should still be in the
reckoning but a puncture killed his chances after getting dropped in the wind on
Friday. Third on Stage 7, he’ll be given free rope for early attacks while the
top favourites mark eachother and that advantage can’t be ignored for such a
good climber. He’ll be able to stay with the best, is arguably the fastest
sprinter here, and will want to make amends for his dreadful day, so is a must
bet each/way at the 8’s that Coral offer.
Team mate Nario Quintana had a lot of pre race hype about
him and went a long way towards justifying it with his spectacular attack on
the Col De Palhieres which saw him put a minute on all the race favourites. He
tired late on, but that’s understandable given how early he went and he lost
time on the descent going into and out of the corners. Today, with more restraint,
he may be able to announce himself as one of the best climbers going and looks
worth a bet at 4’s.
As for the rest, Alberto Contador lost a minute on the first
summit finish but is said by many to be ‘riding himself into form’ and has a
habit of peaking over the three weeks of the tour. Victory’s not impossible for
him and 14’s with Coral was tempting but just because he took a minute thanks
to smart tactical riding doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be better on
Ventoux and he’s got a bit to prove still. Value seeks should go towards the
Belkin duo of Ten Dam and Mollema, who are a crazy 50’s and 28’s respectively. Purito Rodgriguez didn’t lose as much time as
he could have with the time trial, and will look to make gains here, but isn’t
suited by climbs that put so much emphasis on rhythm over speed.
Advice
2 pts Nairo Quintana (6/1 Paddy Power, 11/2 Bwin)
1 pt each/way Alajndro Valverde (8/1 Coral, 14/1 Paddy Power)
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