It’s only been two tests but already Australia seem to be
beaten in the Ashes and England can show just how far the balance of power has
changed between these two sides in Test Cricket by taking the first Ashes series
with two tests to spare and condemning the Australians to defeat in the first
of their two back to back series this year.
England have been widely favoured for this series since the
end of the last contest between the sides, but the first test had more than
enough drama in it for a whole series and came down to only 16 runs, game that either
side could well have won, reminiscent of 2005’s Old Trafford Thriller which was
decided by just two runs.
Before the series we were confident that Australia’s bowling
would give them the upper hand in at least one test and that they’d be able to
take one match against the general flow of play, but defeat there obviously had
a big mental blow upon the Australians and may have killed their chances of a
series win before the action got going.
While the Australian’s use of the DRS has been much maligned,
they got given a fair chance by the system despite Broad’s astonishing letoff
and the runs that came from it. Ashton Agar’s amazing survival when stumped on
6 in the first innings, combined with some incredibly wayward bowling from
Steven Finn, contributed greatly to his near century – as fine as it was. And
Trott’s second innings dismissal, almost as incredulous as Agar’s and Broad’s
escape, had the feel of a call that cost England a big innings from their number
3.
Lord’s was much simpler for England, who had a large first
innings lead and never even really needed to build on it for as long as they
did, with Joe Root’s useful bowling combined with his fine 180 cementing the
fine work of Graeme Swann, who has played a bigger part already than expected
in the series and must be relishing playing Old Trafford, a ground which has traditionally
been a paradise for spinners. Famous for the ‘ball of the century’, Graeme
Swann and Monty Panesar – who had a stunning test series in India when last
seen in the side – both have good memories, with Swann taking a 5-fer along
with Shakib Al Hasssan in the last test played there, while Panesar has 25
wickets in just three games so far.
While Australia do have spinners to choose from – Ashton Agar,
for all his recent stardom, isn’t as good as Nathan Lyon, whose return to the
side would provide a notable boost – we don’t believe those two to be as good
as the England pair on all known evidence and as predicted before this series,
the main problem has been their batting – Australia scored just two more runs over
the whole test than England did in their first innings and have scored 363 less
runs over the two tests so far.David Warner may return to the side but on all
evidence he’s got the same technical problems as Shane Watson, while Ed Cowan,
Phill Huges and Chris Rodgers have all been shown up on regular occasions in
the four innings so far. Some of England’s batsmen have also had poor series
but the depth between the two is being shown and Australia have won just one of
their last eight tests against England. Considering all these factors, home advantage,
and England’s cracking home record, the shade of odds on offered against
England is the clear and outstanding bet for the third test.
Advice
8 pts England (evs Bet365)
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