The Ashes 2013

Many in the UK thought that they’d never experience a modern sporting summer bet than last year but we’re already halfway there and more. The Lions destroyed Australia for a first test series victory in 16 years, Andy Murray ended Britain's long wait for a men's singles champion at Wimbledon yesterday, and while he’s got a long way to go, Chris Froome has a long way to go but has a handy lead in the Tour De France, and now we have the Ashes between England and Australia, the first of a double series that we have this year.

The buildup towards this series has mostly concerned the woes of Australia’s turmoil, much like the 1978/79 side – one of the worst Australia sides according to many - that took a massive battering on home soil. With coach Mickey Arthur having being sacked just weeks ago after weeks of turmoil that included to name a few things, David Warner was disciplined after attacking England's Joe Root in a bar and four players being dropped on the India tour for failing to respond to a request from the management to pinpoint the reasons for Australia's heavy defeats, it’s easy to write off the chances of the visitors totally. However the appointment of Darenn Lehmann – a winner of both the IPL with Deccan Chargers and the Sheffield Shield with Queensland – could turn around the feeling inside a camp that has nothing to lose.

England are 2/5 to win the series and shorter to retain the urn, and both those prices are more than justified. In the last two years, Australia have played 24 matches and won 12 of them, with a win loss ratio which is actually slightly superior to England’s off 1.77, but 7 of those 12 wins came at home against India and Sri Lanka sides wholly unable to deal with the quick pitches and pace bowling that are both sides’ signature method in the test arena – India’s 4-0 loss being a mirror success of the humbling that took England to the top spot in the ICC Test rankings.

However, when looking at the sides’ run up towards the series this year, it’s difficult to get enthusiastic about Australia’s chances in any way, shape or form. The 4-0 trashing at the hands of India is inconsequential in this context – Australia simply couldn’t handle the Indian spin or pitches and had only Nathan Lyon with which to respond – and to be frank neither is their home series win against a Sri Lanka side that was pretty much a lesser version of the India outfit which as we’ve said again, can’t play or use quick bowling.  

However they’ve shown nothing on the international stage since, going out imply in the ICC Champions Trophy at the group stages and showing little with bat or ball including when facing an England side that contains many of their likely protagonists for this series.

If back to the form that saw them so nearly turn over the world’s number 1 ranked side in South Africa – the one time one could say they’ve looked like they’d genuinely beat England in this series – then they’d have to be considered a threat but all the evidence since shows that Australia are essentially a poorer carbon copy of England.

Once the world’s number one test side for a short while after trashing India, England’s sub continent struggles robbed them of that position although their series win in India went a long way towards overcoming those issues, and more recently they’ve warmed up for this with back to back series against New Zealand. The first, in New Zealand, showed some worrying problems with England’s batting in a series that they should have in all reality lost quite comfortably, but they totally reversed that form back on home solid with two comprehensive home victories to prepare for today.

With many of the England one day outfit also being key members of the test team, England’s run to the final of the Champions Trophy – and their frustrating defeat for some in a curtailed final – was a perfect and extremely timely tuneup for this series to compliment their warmup games with all fit and well.

These two sides essentially play the same style of cricket – based mainly around powerful pace bowling attacks – but England’s superiority in batting terms is undeniable. In Alistair Cook, Joe Root, Jonathan Trott, Ian Bell, Kevin Pietersen, and Matt Prior, England have one of the strongest batting lineups in the world and arguably the strongest tailenders in world cricket with Swann and Broad well able to post totals that can save or change a game.

While they’ve been prone to some batting collapses over the past year, shown in the stats that see England’s first innings average drop from 412 to 323 in the period following their rise to World No.1 (2009-2011) and the last 18 months following that, it should be remembered that they played three of Asia’s top sides in their own backyard where their bowling attack was unable to exert the pressure they’re so used to doing, explaining the drop in England’s first innings lead average from 113 to a deficit of 13.

 

Of the two sides’ top batsmen – taking Watson, Hughes, Cowan, Warner, Haddin and Clarke from Australia and comparing them to Cook, Root, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Baristow and Prior – Australia average 32.64 compared to 44.49 for England, an impressive gap given the inexperience of Bell and Bairstow (who averages just 31.00) at this level. For a more like for like comparison, in their four test series against India in identical conditions with similar sides towards today, England scored 2,809 to Australia’s 2,372.

Australia have quality in their pace ranks – Peter Siddle is the world’s fifth best bowler and already well experience in the Ashes, James Pattinson is one of the world’s most promising up and coming fast bowlers, Mitchell Starc has also emerged as a class act and Nathan Lyon is a threat on turning pitches - but it’s matched at least by England’s trio of James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Steven Finn, with Graeme Swann arguably the world’s best spinner to boot.

While one couldn’t discount Australia totally from this, they look severely overmatched in the batting department barring Michael Clarke (with a heavy overreliance upon the slightly all or nothing Shane Watson), which will come significantly into play at high scoring grounds such as Lord’s and The Oval through the series, and while the bowling attacks are more evenly matched, one could still give the hosts the advantage and the extra knowledge and superb records that bowlers like Broad and Anderson have at several venues could also come into play.

The prices for the series, while short, look pretty fair with Australia having had a far worse preparation for this series this time around. Expect the Lehmann effect to give them a much needed boost, and taking one test – paticuarly the Trent Bridge opener should they win the toss – is not beyond them, but it would be disappointing if England couldn’t win this series with home advantage even if it’s not the walkover some people are expecting. A repeat of the 2010/11 series which saw England win 3-1 would see them land the 1.5 handicap and given the sustained difference in quality between the two that looks to be the best bet, with a correct score dutch of 3 and 4-1 victories also making appeal. England should also feel confident of landing the return series, and at 7/4 that looks to be a price well worth taking)

Advice

8 pts England -1.5 (4/5 Skybet, Boylesports, Bet365)

1 pt 3-1 England (6/1 general)

1 pt 4-1 England (12/1 general)

5 pts England to win both series (7/4 Hills, 15/8 Coral)