Tour De France 2013 - Stage 19

So, with all of the superlatives exhausted after that magical double ascent of Alpe D’Huez, the toughest stage of the tour de France is over right? Wrong. Welcome to the real queen stage.

This tour has had tougher starts than most but the Col Du Glandon will be chucking anyone but the very best before we’ve even got going and then we have the Col De La Madeline, even more fearsome, all within the first 84 km of racing, nearly 40 of which will have been spent going uphill  – never mind the descents of the two- there are 26 hairpins coming down off the Madeline.

The Tanie is the easiest climb of the day on paper but it’s nearly 9km long and has a gain of 6.2% before the Col d’Elpine,  - which could be the scene of a long distance attack or two with plenty of rolling roads before the Col de La Croix Fry, an 11.3km slog at 7% which tops with about 13km before the finish – the descent to Le Grand Bornand is a high speed one.

It’s not a summit finish, but a stage that will bring about selections early and explode the peloton. With the most vertical gain metres here of any stage in the tour, stamina will play a deciding part – see Tejay Van Garderen’s mangficnet ride out of the break up Alpe D’huez only to get mugged close home and Alberto Contador and Chris Froome reaching red early for different reasons.

The first four yesterday were in the morning break which got away and stayed away, with Cristophe Riblon taking France’s first win of this tour and one of the most special moments in French cycling history, given it was the most talked about climb in road cycling for the 100^th edition of the race, thanks mainly to home support, his own dogged perseverance and over extortion from Tejay Van Garderen on both climbs with the added annoyance of having to catch up with his break companions after getting a mechanical at the worst possible time – the descent of the Col De Sarenne.

With such a brutal start I doubt that a break would get away today and having the staying energy to keep away will be a mission in itself so I think this one for the top GC men. Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana dominated Mont Ventoux, but it was the Colombian who looked the stronger when nearly breaking Froome before putting a minute into him on the second climb of the Alpe, breaking away with the help of Purito’ Rodriguez before sprinting 3 seconds clear of him at the finish. While Froome was caught unaware thanks to a energy deficiency, he was putting him under serious pressure before that and for the first time this tour he was genuinely outclimbing the yellow jersey and everyone else amongst the favourites. A gap will be needed before the decent of the Col de la Croix Fry, but Quintana put a minute and more into everyone barring Purito – who he outsprinted by three seconds to the line yesterday – and had nearly a minuite over the rest barring Froome on Mont Ventoux. Betfred offer 12/1 on him and will pay four places each/way which looks an outstanding bet and the only place we’re looking today.

Advice

2 pts each/way Nairo Quintana (12/1 Betfred)