Hopeful Stakes 2010

3.20 Newmarket
Novae Bloodstock Insurance Hopeful Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £21,005 - 8 run

Picks: Bated Breath (win), Mon Cadeaux (each/way)

Sir Gerry: Still a very smart sprinter on his day, last gasp win coming in Salisbury listed race in June; Seems to handle most ground and while he hasn’t matched that form, this trip is his optimum and should be taken seriously.

Advanced: Smart performer on day and no problem with today’s ground but has been put in place in good handicaps of late and more needed back on listed terms.

Doncaster Rover: Stepped his form up to a new level when fourth in Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes, and has run series of good races this season in better company than this on ratings; Could not get in a blow from very high draw at Chester and this likely to suit better.

Baited Breath: Quickly developed into useful sprinter, winning 3 on the bounce (maiden, 2 handicaps) before unbeaten run came to end on much slower ground than his first 2 wins 2 weeks ago; Ground was unknown then but handled it fine and arguably unlucky horse of race, forced to make his challenge wide while first 2 were on favoured stands rail; 3lbs better off with winner Dafeef and should take all the beating.

Dafeef: Good winner of 7f Salisbury handicap in May but looked quirky in small fields the next twice; Showed his true colours when things fell right for him (drop back in trip looking to suit) in C&D Handicap; Should be right there if repeating that form literally.

Mon Cadeux: Won twice as 2 year old and made a decent debut on seasonal reappearance when third behind Society Rock in 6f listed contest; Well beaten at Royal Ascot and in French Guineas but this much more suitable test and being a son of Cadux Genereaux (progeny have 9 & 11% strike rates on soft and heavy ground) chould be suited to conditions better than most; Chance.

Rodrigo De Torres: Hard to make a case on face of profile, having not built on good 7f win at Doncaster earlier this year and untried on ground slower than good; However drop back in trip may be making of a freegoing sort and wouldn’t need to find a whole lot on form to trouble this field; Dangerous if erring lead.

Caledonia Princess: Notched up hat – trick in quick ground Windsor Handicaps but the latest off just a mark of 75 and whole lot more on ground she hasn’t tried before.

VERDICT: A competitive but ordinary looking race for the Grade. If Rodrigo De Torres was given an easy lead he could be very hard to catch. That said, he must prove he handles the ground. The lameness worries over BAITED BREATH are hardly encouraging but if he does run, he’s well worth another chance based on his unlucky third last time. He should reverse form with Dafeef, who will be hard to pass if in the same mood as last time. Mon Cadeaux is a decent each/way alternative while Sir Gerry and Doncaster Rover should take a hand if at their best.