Shadwell Travers Stakes 2010

10.46 Saratoga
Shadwell Travers Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370

Ground: Fast Distance:1m2f Number Of Runners:12

Picks (all e/w / place, across board for 3 places): Trappe Shot, Super Saver, Fly Down

Miner’s Reserve: Showed a lot of promise when staying on third in Jim Dandy last time (major trail for this race),having looked set to come well beaten at top of straight; Should relish longer trip and not discounted by any means, although form of his Kentucky Derby run still leaves a lot of ground to be made up.

Trappe Shot: The improving buzz horse coming into Haskell, undefeated in four starts previosuly this season for Kieran McLaughlin, having overcome a poor start to win the Long Branch Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths on July 10 at Monmouth in his stakes debut and his first try at two turns; Creditable run in the Haskell, coming four wide into the straight and still beating most of the main players here; Major chance if staying extra furlong and no reason why he shouldn’t.

Admiral Alex: Made a winning start here over 1m1f at the track, and while time was 1.87 seconds slower than the Jim Dandy he seems sure to improve and trainer actually sent out a filly to win a Grade 1 on only her second start; This looks a very tall order even though.

First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Did his usual thing again when leading until last 110yds in Belmont and grabbed third on line in Haskell; Hit frame on 3 of last 4 Grade 1 starts and sure to be right there again although he might have to go a touch quicker than ideal.

A Little Warm: Stepped up from an optional claimer to Grade 2 win in the Jim Dandy last time, beating 4 of today’s rivals in a race contested by 5 of the last 10 winners of this; That not looking like the greatest renewal, and with many runners coming from a very strong looking renewal of the Haskell, he may have it really tough.

Ice Box: Already proven in Grade 1 company, having won the Florida Derby and was making major ground at end of Kentucky Derby, having met with major interference beforehand, screaming that he was a 12 furlong horse; Ran an absolute stinker in Belmont and little better last time; Could run above odds if they go exceptionally fast but not trustworthy type.

Afleet Express: Very similar run to Miner’s Reserve, as he also showed a lot of promise when staying on third in Jim Dandy last time (major trail for this race),having looked set to come well beaten at top of straight; Similar profile but this is a much tougher race.

Fly Down: Although he flopped badly on first graded start he has improved a ton since, trashing Belmont winner Drosselmeyer, making him look unlucky to get beat given his ride that day; Disappointed in Jim Dandy but given lot of ground to make up, snatched up on rail late on and would have major chance if back to his best.

Friend Or Foe: Won 3 on bounce (all this year, unraced as juvenile) before a respectable fourth in the Jim Dandy; Did not look particularly progressive or unlucky there and has to pull out a lot more to be winning this.

Afleet Again: Favourably treated by weights when winning Withers Stakes and ran respectable race when tables were turned in Spend A Buck Stakes and Pegasus Stakes last twice; Hasn’t had the strong pace he truly needs since his last win though, and step up in trip and pace likely to suit, so the one to play at huge odds.

Super Saver: Although a fine ride and sloppy track (combined with dream run inside the rail) helped him a lot when winning the Kentucky Derby, he still showed himself to be a rapidly improving colt and won with plenty in hand; Disappointing when bombing in the Preakness but only having 2 weeks between races (connections worried beforehand) plausible excuse and chasing extremely hot pace cannot have helped; Same excuses could have been offered for the Haskell (chased hot pace) and not unusually, he looked in need of the run; Has all the ability when things go right and major player too.

VERDICT: You couldn’t get a more competitive event if you tried. There are no end of fantastic betting opportunities, with nice prices likely to be on offer as firms are going 5-1 the field. TRAPPE SHOT has been improving hand over fist and ran a very good race to come second to Lookin At Lucky in the Haskell conserving that he came 4 wide and must hold a decent chance if staying the stiff 10f at a fast pace here. It may be well worth giving another chance to SUPER SAVER, seeing as he looked on the way back in the Haskell and if given a sensible ride, could take all the beating. His speed will help him immensely too. Prices of 5 & 6/1 will do nicely for e/w purposes on the top 2. Alfeet Again should like the fast pace, and may be a ridiculously overpriced shot but FLY DOWN gets a special mention, being the guaranteed best stayer in the field and holding a high level of form. I’m going to e/w the 3.