Scottish Champion Hurdle 2010

2.45 Ayr

Samsung Electronics Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £45,608

Pick: Border Castle, Eradicate (e/w)

Michael Flips: Useful novice who has put it back together on his last 3 runs, wining the Lanzarote Hurdle and also running an excellent race in the Coral Cup; Ran a bad race in-between the two and this drop in trip may not be the best thing.

First Point: Won three out of last six starts and was rated 133 when winning over hurdles recently this summer, so form over fences gives him a chance; 6^th in Tote Trophy gives him a good chance and he  =looks to be there or thereabouts without winning.

Tito Bustillio: Was still there when being badly hampered 2 out in the County Hurdle and his form beforehand gives him a realistic chance here; He has been raised since that run, so he’ll need to be every bit as good as promised, but chance anyway.

Arcalis: ran with credit at Cheltenham Festival for fifth time in 6 years when second in County Hurdle, finishing best from well back; Has a serious chance if literally repeating/ improving on that form but had a strong pace to shoot at and a stiff hill to climb.

Lady Hillingdon; Improved a lot last summer, winning 3 times, and put in best when second in listed contest at Wetherby in October; Has excuses for only run this year but is high enough in weights.

Eradicate: Showed promise in novice season; Built on that when landing valuable Musselbrugh race in good style (had a mark of 129); Had quite a hike for that but dropped 2lbs in wake of bad run in the County; That drop gives him quite a chance especially compared to the mark he would be running off had he run properly at Cheltenham.

Frontier Dancer: Ended last season on a high with a win at Perth and found only Fairyland too good on return at Newbury in November; Has lost his form and looked held when falling last time.

Border Castle: Winner of this in 2008 and has clearly been given a preparation with this in mind, coming an excellent second to Punjabi and then another good second last time when conceding 9lbs to a useful sort and his pulled up in the Imperial Cup isn’t so bad seeing he was hampered; Only 9 and chance here.

William Hogarth: Finished runner up 5 times before then making heavy weather and getting beaten; Won by 10 lengths and then got beaten last time and while he’s rated as running to 130, he seems inconsistent.

Overturn: Had posted 4 very good efforts before bolting up tice at this track on his last 2 starts; I don’t get all the fuss over his flat form but a 10lbs rise for a 10 lengths win is very fair and he’s definitely got a chance.

Gloucester: Consistent but doesn’t really find much for shoving and is suited by a cruising and waiting ride; Still ran well for the first time in 6 months and speed test might just suit him.

Palomar: Well treated on his second (behind Eradicate) form poor position at Musselburgh in February ; Very moody and it’s hard to see how he will respond to the blinkers.

VERDICT: Overturn has been given a fair crack of the whip by going up 10lbs for a 10 length win. However a lot of fuss has been made over his flat form and I don’t think it matters a lot in this type of race. Arcalis had the benefit of a strong pace, big field and a strong hill to run up last time and he can be taken on here. Tito Bustillo should also hold a chance as he was still there when being badly hampered 2 out in the County Hurdle and his form beforehand gives him a realistic chance here. He has been raised since that run, so he’ll need to be every bit as good as promised, but he has chance anyway. BORDER PATROL is 5lsb lower when winning this 2 years ago and has been campaigned with this in mind. ERADICATE is also in with a good chance based on his run last time.