2.00 Newbury
Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss last time but hard task on in such a competitive race; Has to give away 3lbs, too.
Akamal: Ran on a real streak in 2009, getting 7 wins and landing 2m Group 3 at Newmarket on final start; This is most competitive event he’s been in and might like softer ground for stamina test, but not to be discounted.
Allied Powers: Largely ran with credit in top company following win in a Hamilton handicap a year ago, but these conditions unlikely to be testing enough for him in all honesty.
Balkan Knight: Performed will in a few races over trips but missed all of 2009 and has not group win; That makes him impossible to recommend.
Dansili Dancer: Appeared to take form to a new level when routing the opposition on his return at Kempton recently; Race very much set up for him and mark (in hindsight) lenient, so work to do.
Furmigadelaguista: Progressed up to listed level last year but ended it on a low note and his fifth is a lacklustre effort last time considering the form his yard were in that weekend; Another one who could be there or thereabouts but needs to bounceback.
Purple Moon: Been off for a long time but arguably the best horse in the field and his runs in Group 1 company give him a big chance here; Apparently had foot abscess keeping him off the track but if all was well you’d have to put him right up there.
Traffic Guard: Has some serious form and if he could get back his career best second to New Approach, he would come under some serious consideration; Also did well when slamming useful horses at Windsor last summer, so palace chances.
Blizzard Blues: Sprung a surprise when landing 10 furlong Newmarket maiden (blinkers on); Would have really benefitted from having those on when racing far too freely in conditions company; Will benefit from having them back up but needs to improve up in grade and trip.
Buxted: Only had three runs (all on polytrack) but has won them all and taken huge step forward every single time, landing listed contest over 1m4f; Possible there’s more to come on turf so considered.
Claremont: No forlorn hope on UK / Godolphin debut form Al Zarooni; Interesting that he was behind Halicarnassus but his best would give him a major chance.
Harbiger: Vindicated Sir Michael Stoute’s Decision to miss the Derby and Royal Ascot with him when running out an impressive winner of the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Went wrong and something obviously amiss when last in Great Voltigeur; Still recovering when excellent third in Group 3 over this course and distance behind High Heeled and will like the ground a lot more today.
Manifest: Didn’t come out of a canter when winning maiden by 19 lengths; Only third behind Akmal in 1m6f listed race but may do better for drop down in trip; Shown plenty of promise but has something to prove.
Oasis Knight: Bettered his handicap win with couple of placings in pattern and listed company but this demands a lot more.
Clowance: Only had 6 runs but has run well in Group 1 company on three of those occasions, coming fourth in a strong oaks, coming second in the Irish St Ledger and also fourth in the Prix Royal Oak; All those efforts give her great chance and very good price.
Polly’s Mark: Greatly improved last year, winning a listed event in good style, doing it well in the Shergar Cup and also only just getting nabbed on the line in listed company when last seen; Will need more than that to be competitive here.
VERDICT: A fiercely competitive race for a Group 3. Manifest could still be anything, Akmal was on a real streak when last seen, Buxted could have more to offer on turf and Traffic Guard should have a chance if staying. The 2 horses that have run well in Group 1 company are Purple Moon and CLOWANCE, and the former is a real big e/w shout at 15/2. I think Harbinger has the biggest winning shot and at 9/2 he’s a fair price.
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