Here's my first big preview of the new season, tell me what you think.
4.10 Newmarket
Leslie Harrison Memorial Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3 Fillies) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £36,900
Selection: Music Show
Music Show: Easily the best of these at 2, winning 3 out of her 4 stats, the biggest win being the Rockfel Stakes; Also has an excuse for her poor run at Ayr, where there was a massive bias, so very nice prospect even with a 3lbs penalty.
Astari: Won maiden at the Curragh in May and nursery at Gowran next month, looking well suited by test of speed at 8f in latter; Out 2 2 career bests in succession when finishing second in listed event and then the Rockfel Stakes behind Music Show; That form gives her solid chance in this being 3lbs better off although the winner looked progressive and may have more in the tank.
Blue Maiden: Built on promising debut second to Lady Pattern at Newbury when getting off the mark at Newmakret and taking major step forward when then finishing second behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes; Foot problem final start so not worth assessing on that run only, but stil has some work to do.
Distinctive: Impressive Redcar maiden winner and same result when stepped up in class in Ayr Group 3 last time; But form of that race has doubts over it in the shape of draw bias towards her side (Lowther second Beyond Desire 1st of her Group in fourth); And was well exposed on her final start in the Rockfel.
Dyna Waltz: Should be respected coming from the yard that has won 4 of the last 9 of this race , and her Kempton form does have 2 wins to the race; Not disgraced when fifth in the Fillies Mile but for of that race not the strongest on subsequent runs.
Hafawa: Won maiden at Pontefract and minor event (in good style by 4 lengths) at Leicester either side of near-miss at Ripon; Up in grade here and could have a difficult time of it.
Jacqueline Quest: Too soon to write this filly off based on her last start, pulling too hard on heavy ground; Landed the odds by 9 lengths at Chester but that race was weak and Tom Qually likes Principal Role more.
Principal Role: Blew the start and recovered in fine style to win a Yarmouth maiden; Promising filly but drop back in trip might not help her.
Queen’s Grace: Form entitles her to take a decent hand in this (ahead of Puff, who was fourth behind Special Duty in the Chevley Park Stakes) but not a proven stayer.
Safina: Has been backed for the Guineas in recent days 9now a best priced 14/1) and is beautifully bred (out of Russian Rhythm) but facts remain that she was beaten on her only run last year and has a lot to do on that basis.
Srda: $100,000 Kingmambo filly who is 2/2 after wins on the AW this year, the latest in a handicap by 7 lengths; Looks to be good enough to make a step up but this is a decent contest and she will need a lot more, over a trip that might be short of her best.
VERDICT: Any number of promising fillies taking their chance in a good renewal and MUIC SHOW gets the vote, having landed a pretty good renewal of the Rockfel Stakes last time as a juvenile. Her 3lbs penalty will make life difficult but she might be capable of pulling out more.
I don't need to cover the flat when there's excellent coverage like this about! Thanks for the detailed write-up. I did a study as promised and my trends study told me that 66% of the last 12 renewals were won by trainers who are winners of multiple Nell Gwyns. Indeed this is very much a race dominated by a small handful of trainers who should be watched more than any others. Surprisingly nothing much has changed since the time when I used to study the flat closely - a LOONG time ago- I was most surprised that some of the same names are still present like Stoute and Cecil, Brittain (always a good trainer of juvenile fillies) and Cumani (likewise). So sticking as I do to the directions of the trends, I had to favour a horse from a multiple winning stable and the best of those appeared to come from Gosden's yard: Dyna Waltz then is my pick although I do like your pick too- very good chance there. Not too keen on the penalty and curious as to why the one horse in the field who is truly race-fit: Srda is not given a chance in the betting? Especially considering her trainer whose record with juvenile fillies including in this race particularly is so strong. Just not classy enough I suppose? Still nice e/w bet I reckon. - Mark
ReplyDeleteThanks again - Think that she's the best in the race though.
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