Tuesday, 13 April 2010

Timeform Trophy

3.00 Newmarket
£250,000 Tattersalls Timeform 3-y-o Trophy (Class 2)  (3YO only)
Winner £135,425

Ameer: Won nicely first 2 starts (7f/1m) before third in Saint-Cloud Group 3 event final start; That form gives him chance here and Dettori rides, so signs are right for big run.

Chain Of Events: Needs to step up in major way on his first 3 runs.

 Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival; Faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy; No doubting that he’s better than that but will have some work to do on the basis of that form.

Doctor Shivago: Has made a big impression when winning both starts at Southwell this winter, easing down in a 1m handicap last time out; Much more on his plate today but first string of an inform team.

Don Carlos: Arguably brings the best form to the table by finishing fourth in the Criterium De Saint Cloud last year on his final start; This ground may well bring out the best in him but stable still not fringing on all gears; Market check essential but looks like best horse in race.

High Twelve: Confirmed promise of 8f debut when running on after not getting a blocked passage to take fourth in the Royal Lodge Stakes; Possibly didn’t really get the best of run in Dewhurst and will like this trip but has to start delivering now; Still major contender.

Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and while useful, might need one or two not to be on their game.

Ice Viking: Form shown in his 6 starts as a juvenile (best placing fifth) nowhere near what will be required here.

Karaka Jack: Won a Southwell Nursery by 8 lengths but not certain to be suited by step up in trip; Has also won a York maiden but the form of that not looking too great; Very 50./50 but if he stays he won’t be out of it.

Kona Coast: Nowhere near best form when unplaced on both starts and that is not a good sing bearing to his chances, which would be much bigger based on his last start as a juvenile.

Longliner: Needs to step up quite a bit to play a part here but well-bred colt couldn't be in better hands and could be open to plenty of improvement; Shaped well in maidens but he was  1-2 on his last start and they were’nt exactly brilliant looking affairs; Still holds a chance and market will tell all.

Mark Twain: Quite useful form up to a mile and not disgraced on any of his tarts; Has been gelded   and moved to a new yard and having had 8 runs, not much room for improvement.

Next Move: Another unknown quantity who should improve a bit on his maiden win on the AW at Kempton; Looks stable second string but not out of it.

Cracking Lass: Wasn't disgraced in valuable sales races here final 2 starts last year; Yard flying but plenty of improvement required, while she's not certain to stay this trip either and others appeal more.

Jira: Held her form really well throughout last season through group and sales races despite being quite exposed and ran a good race when fourth last time; All of her form is solid but might not be at the level required.

Sunarise: Needs to improve, but lightly raced enough to do so and always dangerous to rule out stable in these; Has got a lot to do though, so will be interesting to see what market says.

VERDICT: One of the most valuable 3-y-o prizes of the season and a tricky puzzle to solve as most of these look open to improvement. The market will dictate my final pick but DON CARLOS has the best form at the moment and may like the faster ground. A lot is made of how the Ballydoyle team are not firing but they did have a double at the Curragh and aren’t struck down or anything. The alternative must be HIGH TEWLVE, who didn’t get a clear run when fourth in the Royal Lodge and will like this trip more than the Dewhurst. The big field is a concern. The likes of Coordinated Cut and Ameer are always solid place bets. 

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