Champions League Last 16 - Schalke v Real Madrid

Real Madrid are a club that want everything but top of their list is a tenth Champions League and Carlo Ancelotti’s side, who seem to have everything going for them at the moment, can make short work of last 16 opponents Schalke in their first leg tonight.

Much has been made of Real Madrid’s poor record in Germany – they have won just once in 25 previous visits to German opposition, losing 18 times, but three of those previous recent defeats have come at the hands of last season’s finalists Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich and Schalke, as good a side as they are, aren’t in the same class as that pair. We made much of Barcelona’s away record when backing the draw in their last 16 first leg but City’s poor record against Europe’s best came to roost again as the class gap between the two sides showed itself fully.

Madrid haven’t had the smoothest of seasons – they were trailing both city rivals Atletico and Barcelona during September – but since losing El Clasico in late October they haven’t been beaten and they have just one draw to their name since mid December. Their Champions League group admittedly wasn’t a strong one, but there’s not much fault to be found in their away form this season and the 3-0 win of Premier League leaders Chelsea suggests that Madrid should feel confident of being able to justify an opening price of what looks to be a slightly generous 8/13.

The Germans had a near perfect record excluding two defeats to Chelsea and have a strong recent run of form since losing 2-1 at Borussia Mochengladbach in early December but were torn apart by Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund who won 4-0 and 3-1 respectively. Those two teams have the level of attacking talent, pace and skill that Madrid possess with the likes of Ronaldo, Benzema, Bale and Di Maria making a deadly foursome going forward and Ancelotti’s side can come away with a handsome victory tonight and all but put their place in the quarter finals.

Advice

3 pts Madrid -1 (7/5 general)

Champions League Last 16 - Olympiakos v Manchester United

Manchester United have been besieged by problems this season but the Champions League has been a saving grace for them and David Moyes’s biggest stroke of luck has probably been a winnable last 16 draw against Olympiakos, with the first leg in Greece tonight very winnable for the under fire Premier League champions.

United’s best performances have all come in Europe, with a comfortable enough topping of what was an admittedly fairly weak section with Shaktar Donetsk, Bayer Leverkusen, and Real Sociedad all playing a good deal below what they are capable of when it came to Europe, but in Olympiakos they face an opponents arguably even weaker than any of those three on paper and they have been handed a golden chance for a quarter final spot based on some of the other second seeds in Last 16 ties.

Of course, that is not to write off Michel’s side. Whatever one might think of them they picked up 10 points from a group that had Benfica in the section - they could well have won in Greece had it not been for a pitch that was sub deluged before half time and gave PSG a mighty game in Paris, with only Edison Cavani’s late goal robbing them of a point in Paris.

However, the sale of top goalscorer Konstantinos Mitroglou to Fulham is a mighty blow for their chances and with second top scorer Javier Saviola on the bench, one can’t help but think that an oft leaky defence has been given a big chance despite the good form of Michael Olaitan – as new recruit Marko Šćepović is cup tied for this particular encounter.

United’s away form in the group stage was no more than average with draws at Sociedad and Shakthar but they won at home convincingly both times and similar result may occur here.

Advice

1 pt Draw (23/10 Boylesports)

Champions League Last 16 - Zenit v Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund’s injury problems have besieged them and their season has been falling apart in Germany but being out of the running in Germany helped them focus on the champions league last year and they can make the most over two legs of a favourable draw in the last 16 to reach the quarter finals once again.

Zenit St Petersburg’s big spending hasn’t bought them the European success that they’ve been craving and while they have reached the last 16 this season it was with only 6 group stage points. Admittedly they did beat Porto for a slot in the last 16 although that outfit had not been in the same shape as recent years and their place in the last 16 is mainly down to the failures of Porto and low ranking Australia Vienna to take advantage of eachother’s mistakes and while they were unbeaten at home, their 1-1 draw against Aletico Madrid owes a lot to the Spaniards having finished dealing with the opposition a long time before they visited and sending a second string side to the Pavlosk Stadium. In 1-1 draws against Porto and Austria Vienna their lack of cutting edge failed them despite a talented team in a technical sense and their defence could be their weak link against Borussia Dortmund today.

Dortmund were beaten 3-0 by Hannover at the weekend, one of many occasions recently where their very own pate of defensive injures has cost them dearly, but their frontline has still remained intact and they still have as much firepower as anyone in Europe. Before the weekend they had scored 11 goals in winning their previous three league games the time beforehand and in a fast and fluid frontline headed by Robert Lewandowski with the likes of Marco Reus to name just some in behind has the talent to notch at least once and they are good enough to take a lead back to Germany. Dortmund won at Arsenal in the group stages and barring Real Madrid’s 2-0 win in the semi final second leg, they were unbeaten on their travels before the final.

Advice

3 pts Dortmund (8/11 general)

6 Nations 2014 - England v Ireland

With so little between the various 6 Nations sides this year, almost every game between a nation that isn’t Scotland or Italy has the feel of a monumental Championship decider and England’s clash with Ireland is going to go a long way towards shaping the destination of this year’s championship, even more so following France’s capitulation to Wales yesterday evening.

England’s own defeat to that side now has an especially aggravating feel about it given their less than perfect performance against Italy and their collapse last night, but their performance against a Scotland side admittedly so bad that there were calls in the general press for a demotion from the tournament unless things improved rapidly, was a step in the right direction for Stuart Lancaster’s young improving side that would still harbour serious title ambitions if able to win today.

Improvement seems to be the theme with Ireland as well. Declan Kidney’s men were beaten by England last year to signal the beginning of a slump that would last until Joe Schmidt took over but since then the former Leinsterman’s influence seems to have sparked a squad notorious for not living towards the standards that have been set by their sparkling club form of the obvious talent n their squad. As with his Leinster side that dominated Europe for three years, the composure and execution of their gameplans has been their greatest weapon, with two hugely impressive wins against Scotland and Wales coming all but entirely from set piece domination and their hugely impressive rolling maul as their main weapon on both occasions.

With Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray playing as well as they have done for a long time as pivots at the 9/10 axis, it has seen them totally in control of their games but they have come infront of their own fans and it remains to be seen not only how they deal with travelling to Twickenham but also how they deal with one of the strongest packs in the tournament.

England may have lost Dan Cole – and he is a big miss on more than one front – to injury but their young, improving pack has given them a platform in all but every game for the last two seasons and despite his absence, will be a far harder match for the Irish than either an off the pace Wales or abymsal Scotland will have provided. With Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury making a lock pairing equal to that of Paul O’Connell and Devin Toner which will make starting a drive hard for either side, while both backrows look equally matched, if not in the same skill areas with Ireland’s ferocity at the breakdown still in evidence.

For England, the challenge will be breaking Ireland down. Under Schmidt their tackle completion is above 90%, they domiantd the penalty count 16-9 against Wales, and have give just 37 penalties in the 5 games under Schmidt while also turning over Wales 18 times. If they have similar success today then Owen Farrell is likely to be short of opportunities to keep the scoreboard ticking over than those plans could be shelved much like they were when Wales destroyed them. However both sides look too evenly matched for anything of that sort, and ditching the 1-5 winning margins might offer the best value.

 Advice

1 pt Ireland to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)

1 pt England to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

Bobbyjo Chase 2014

3.10 Fairyhouse

At The Races Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €26,000

Advice: 2 pts win Mount Benbulben (6/4 Ladbrokes)

Mount Benbulen: Not everything’s gone right for him chasing but no small amount of talent, as shown when destroying opposition in Grade 1 novice at Punchestown; Jumping issues plagued him so far this season, going out when well in the running on seasonal debut and then when still in contention for King George at Christmas (banked four out); Should go well here and be very hard to beat if he puts in a clear round.

Roi Du Mee: Going from the front saw him spring a surprise when landing the Champion Chase at Down Royal before but found wanting at Grade 1 level twice since; May be taken on at the head of affairs today although no doubting his talents and is aiming to win this race for the second year in a row.

Buckers’ Bridge: Hard to recommend him after not being able to land a blow in Leopardstown Chase off 147 latest and best to look elsewhere.

Lion Na Bernai: Irish Grand National winner in 2012 and very promising win over 2m5f here last time, defying veteran status and winning convincingly latest; Cheekpieces had a good effect there and should go well here; Can outrun odds by a long way.

Quito De la Roque: Classy act when at his best, previous Grade 1 winner and confirmed mudlark but retracting in Down Royal Champion Chase when falling and not shown much since; Look elsewhere.

Make A Track: Deeply impressive when 15 length winner of Tim Duggan Chase at Limerick off mark of 138 and flopped the next time; Better when only beaten 6 1/2l into seventh at Leopardstown latest but better calibre of horse here and hard to see him troubling principals.

On His Own: Talented, as wins in two of the last three Thyestes Chases show, and maybe best when going from the front, although there have been some notable disappointments, not least in two Grand Nationals; If in same form this time around, then has a fine chance here at weights and respected albeit upped in class.

VERDICT: An interesting renewal with Grand National clues a plenty if some turn up. Lion Na Bernai isn’t top of many people’s lists for that but his recent win seemed to suggest a horse invigorated by cheekpieces and at this distance he is far from the worst value bet either for today or April. But the class in the race is MOUNT BENBULBEN, who is going to take all the beating if staying on his feet and putting in a clear round, and he can beat On His Own and last year’s winner Roi Du Mee.