Saturday 12 October 2013

The Heineken Cup 2013/14 - A fond farewell

There have been some special last hurrahs in sport. In racing, the Arc triumphs of Zarkava and Sea the Stars were sights to behold. Frankel’s epic Champion Stakes win over Cirrus Des Aigles was a wonderful way to end one of the great careers. Sachin Tendulkar, the little master of cricket who united a whole nation, will be cheered by the world of cricket when he plays his 200th and final test in India later this year. In Rugby, England legend Martin Johnson went out of the game at international level with that World Cup final win. One of the great competitions of the game, the Heineken Cup, looks to be facing its last hurrah in its current format, and not exactly a joyous one either. But away from all the greed, nonsense, and petty arguing there’s a tournament to be played and a chance for a fitting ‘last winner’ of the tournament in Clermont Auvergne.

Serial bridesmaids at this level for many years, their Top 14 triumph of 2010 hasn’t bought the flowing success that was hopes, with the near misses just getting more and more agonising by the season. Beaten a total of 7 points in the Top 14 and Heineken Cup semi-finals two seasons ago – especially in a nailbiter by the eventual winners Leinster on home turf in Europe – Clermont took yet another step forward last year and showed how much they’d improved in taking 6 from 6 in a pool, including two wins over the Leinster side that had cursed them for so many years previously – the only defeats they’ve suffered in their last 24 games. Never likely to be beaten at home in the knockout stages, they were by far the better side against Montplellier and Munster – but the scoreline in the semi-final and the raggy late ending were symptomatic of a worrying trend through the recent years of a failure to kill off games which came back to bite them in the most heartbreaking style when they lost their first Heineken Cup final by one point with Delon Armitage’s converted try enough to sneak a second half that the Jaunards dominated in the main, holding a 9 point lead at one point.

The aftermath of that defeat saw a limp Top 14 semi-final loss to Castres, and Vern Cotter accept the Scotland job, even if he’s staying for one last year without backline coach Alex King, while much blame placed upon flyhalf Brock James for their two major losses although the main reason was a shortcoming when trying to claw back the one point deficit in Dublin.

Not much has changed in terms of the transfer department but their backline topped the stats in European rugby last season and contains untold wing riches in Napolioni Nalaga – the top scorer in last year’s competition with 8 tries and the Top 14 with 13 scores – former All Black Siveni Svivivatu on the other side (along with Noa Nakataci for good measure), Wesley Fofana cutting through the middle along with either Aureleien Rougerie and Regan King in the centre and a choice between Lee Bryne and Jean Marcelin-Buttin at fullback. The pack might be coming towards the end of their careers but are essential in enabling the swift attacks Clermont launch at all times and in the likes of Tomas Domingo, Clermont do have the capability to win a pack battle.
Brock James is a fine playmaker who has few equals in Europe – despite what comments were made in the aftermath of last year – and with Morgan Parra likely to take to the kicking tee for European duties there are no worries for us on that score. While an injury to him is seriously bad news, Theirry Lacrampe’s arrival is a huge bolster in that department and means a solid base of kickers while Mike Delany impressed in some limited games last season. A pools with Racing Metro – who have singed exceptionally but are still integrating their new arrivals – Harlequins, who have been disappointing so far this season and were convincingly beaten by Munster in a forward battle at the quarter finals last year, and Scarlets should reap the rewards of a home draw in the quarter finals again at the Stade Marcel Michelin where they’ve not lost in 63 home games, and their away record in Europe has wins at Leinster and Saracens in the past two years. While France could always be a distraction, they’ve focused on Europe since winning the Top 14 in 2010 and are expected to do so once again, making them the bet over last season’s finalists.


Toulon have added yet more players to their roster in both the front and back row, chief amongst them Leicester’s Martin Castrogiovanni, and the Blues’s ex All-Black Ali Williams at lock, but their real pulling power is in the backs with legend Bryan Habana fresh from one of the finest extended periods of his career including his two tires in the rugby game of the year at Ellis Park against the All Blacks. Ex Wallaby Drew Mitchell , able to play either the wing or fullback, has 63 Australia caps including several tri Nations and two World Cups – he scored seven tries in 2007 – and adds yet more experience to the strongest squad in European Rugby, while Johnny Wilkinson and Frederic Michalak are two contrasting, but equally gifted, flyhalves. A pool with Glasgow, Exeter, and Cardiff should bring 6 wins out of 6 and a home quarter final, although it should be said that Leicester Tigers put them under huge pressure for large parts of their quarter final last year at the Stade Felix Mayol and Saracens played well below themselves in what was a drab Wembley semifinal – they’re certainly not unbeatable on the road either.

Leinster’s wealth of experience and key Irish talent makes them contenders despite the loss of Joe Schmidt to Ireland’s national job and Johnny Sexton to the lure of Racing Metro, but it is those two factors which are so hard to ignore despite the strength in depth at the club. Ian Madigan has conducted himself with nothing but class so far and was particularly impressive when deputizing for Sexton last year, but he has some way to go to reach Sexton’s heights and the same must go for new flyhalf Jimmy Gopperth, despite solid performances so far in Ireland. With Brian O’Driscoll’s fitness having to be managed more and more, there’s a feeling that there are points of weakness for Leinster that will be well tested in the tournament’s hardest pool that brings with it trips to the Ospreys, Castres, and Leister’s 2011 final victims Northampton, who look worth supporting for the trophy at a big price of 25/1.

Saints haven’t laid a blow in Europe since that turnaround but were much improved towards the end of last year – when they overturned Saracens on their own artificial surface (the first team to do so) – and their superb singings over the summer of Wales and Lions star George North, England and Lions prop Alex Corbisiero, and possibly most importantly Kahn Fotuali’I, one of the world’s premier halfbacks and a gamechanger from since his arrival at the Ospreys. With several England contenders amongst their ranks in the pack, including Tom Wood and Countney Lawes, raising their games significantly this season and a installing a mentality around Franklins Park that was last present then they made it to the final in 2011.

The presence of Clermont’s Alex King’ as backline coach looks to have been a masterstroke judged by some of the backplay they’ve put on so far this season and Stephen Myler’s improved form is making for some fine showings, while improved away performances point to strong showings on the road. In such a tight pool, getting a home quarter final will be hard, but they did win at Ravenhill last year to avenge a home humiliation and won at Saracens in the semi-finals. They have the nightmare pool, but with Ospreys and Castres poor on the road in this competition they can feel confident about a potential home clean sweep if playing to their best and they have the quality to take wins from France and Wales. 25/1 is on the generous side to say the least and a value bet to have onside.

With Connacht and Zebre in their pools respectively, Toulouse and Saracens have been given a golden chance to make it into the quarter finals and both must be strongly considered this year, although ready preference is for the English side with Toulouse’s away woes their Achilles heel in the thorunment since they picked up the last of their four titles. Saracens’s squad is without equal in the Premiership, making a challenge on two fronts something that can be coped with more easily, thanks in no small part to the arrivals of Billy Vunipola, James Johnston and Marcelo Bosch, all of whom should play a part here, while Chris Ashton and David Strettle – enjoying a new lease of life with the more expansive style of rugby being played since they moved to Adams Park offering potent wing threats. Owen Farell’s temperament looks significantly improved based upon his performances so far after a summer in Australia While they were outmuscled and outclassed by Toulon last year at Wembley when their pack put in a below par performance, they seem an improved side based on this season’s evidence so far, are likely to have learned from that experience and are worth strong consideration this time around with a home quarter final a realistic aim.

Montpellier's players react after winning their Heineken Cup match against ToulonUlster and Leicester both have the sides to go far – with Leicester’s first XV boasting upto 6 British and Irish Lions – but are seriously handicapped by being drawn against eachother, and also having French challengers Montpellier in their group. Losing quarter finalists last season, Montpellier have been amongst France’s most impressive sides and sit at the head of a Top 14 that boasts the most strength in depth of Europe’s three leagues by far, impressing with their home destructions Toulouse and Clermont amongst others in freakish 25-0 and 43-3 routs that nobody else has been able to come remotely close to this season despite the spate of home wins in the Top 14 this season.

With Scrum-half Jonathan Pelissie playing the best halfback rugby of anyone in France at the moment – evidenced by his major hand in his side against Clermont, when he scored two of his team's four tries and kicked 21 points to boot – François Trinh-Duc operating with ease and grace at flyhalf,  Mamuka Gorgodze, Robins Tulou, James Beattie and Flourence Ouedraogo to make a pack that has torn all comers to France this season, and the arrival of Internationals Rene Ranger – deeply impressive in the summer internationals against France and a prolific breakdown operator as well as explosive talent – and Robert Eboersohn (who made 206 tackles and 30 turnovers last year)  arriving from the Cheetahs will give them a new dimension. Their away form is a worry in a pool as strong as this although they were giving Clermont significant problems before Francois Trinh-Duc went off injured last year in the quarter final and their new arrivals are likely to prove a great help with that task as well. If they can make it through their pool – not an impossible task if they can produce their form so far at home, which would certainly nil Ulster and Leicester in point terms, then they would have a better chance in an away quarter final than the odds suggest and they’re worth a small shot at 33/1.

Last but not least, crack European experts Munster are the last team to recommend. The famous Red Army last won the title 6 years ago but have reached three semi-finals since and look to have taken Rob Penney’s style on board much quicker than expected, with the former New Zealand U20 and Canterbury Man having been present since just May 2012. Last year was difficult for them, with a changing of the guard and the playing style hard for them to take in all at once – along with a lengthy injury list which constantly disputed their flow last year.

Munster have always had one of the best packs in club rugby and used their powerful, uncompromising game –especially being hitting the breakdown in numbers – to upset a heavily favoured Harlequins side at the Stoop last season and one could not fail to be impressed with the way they clawed back a 10 points deficit against Clermont in the second half with remarkable composure and determination before a late rattle had the result in doubt for the last 10 minutes, despite being outplayed for large parts of the semi-final encounter in France, a huge effort considering Clermont’s famed home record.


Munster defeats Racing Metro 296 in Heineken Cup at Thomond ParkWith Ronan O’Gara having moved on and Ian Keatley having taken the reins at flyhalf Munster are far more flexible in attack than they’ve been at any time since the Kidney era, with Keatley and JJ Hanrahan having impressed pulling the strings. Conor Murray is one of the best scrumhalves in the competition and a superb tactical influence with a wealth of experience who is more than capable of applying the running game that Penny desires, and in Casey Lualua, Simon Zebo, Keith Earls and Denis Hurley all capable of proving attacking edge, Munster have the rare potential to switch between forward grunt - provided by the likes of James Coughlan, Paul O’Connell, and Donnacha Ryan to name but three - and swift backplay.

Arguably the most enticing factor with regards to backing the Red Army for more success is their smashing pool with Gloucester, Perpignan, and Edinburgh, all of whom loo overmatched compared to last year’s semi-finalists, having failed to impress so far this season. Munster beat Edinburgh twice with little fuss last year, have one of Europe’s best home records, and should go to Gloucester – who have looked worryingly overmatched upfront at Kingsholm this season and have been lucky to win their only home success against Northampton – and even Perpignan – with no fear. Five out of 6 wins could be considered a realistic target and a home quarter final with it, and given Munster’s record at Thomond Park, it would not be a trip anyone wanted to take and Youwin’s 20/1 looks worth an each/way grab.


Advice

4 pts Clermont (5/1 general)

1 pt each/way Munster (20/1 Youwin, 16/1 Stan James)

1 pt each/way Northampton (25/1 Stan James, 22/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Montpellier (33/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 general)


No comments:

Post a Comment