There have been some special last hurrahs in sport. In
racing, the Arc triumphs of Zarkava and Sea the Stars were sights to behold. Frankel’s
epic Champion Stakes win over Cirrus Des Aigles was a wonderful way to end one
of the great careers. Sachin Tendulkar, the little master of cricket who united
a whole nation, will be cheered by the world of cricket when he plays his 200th
and final test in India later this year. In Rugby, England legend Martin
Johnson went out of the game at international level with that World Cup final
win. One of the great competitions of the game, the Heineken Cup, looks to be
facing its last hurrah in its current format, and not exactly a joyous one
either. But away from all the greed, nonsense, and petty arguing there’s a
tournament to be played and a chance for a fitting ‘last winner’ of the
tournament in Clermont Auvergne.
Serial bridesmaids at this level for many years, their Top
14 triumph of 2010 hasn’t bought the flowing success that was hopes, with the
near misses just getting more and more agonising by the season. Beaten a total
of 7 points in the Top 14 and Heineken Cup semi-finals two seasons ago – especially
in a nailbiter by the eventual winners Leinster on home turf in Europe –
Clermont took yet another step forward last year and showed how much they’d
improved in taking 6 from 6 in a pool, including two wins over the Leinster
side that had cursed them for so many years previously – the only defeats they’ve
suffered in their last 24 games. Never likely to be beaten at home in the knockout
stages, they were by far the better side against Montplellier and Munster – but
the scoreline in the semi-final and the raggy late ending were symptomatic of a
worrying trend through the recent years of a failure to kill off games which
came back to bite them in the most heartbreaking style when they lost their
first Heineken Cup final by one point with Delon Armitage’s converted try enough
to sneak a second half that the Jaunards dominated in the main, holding a 9
point lead at one point.
The aftermath of that defeat saw a limp Top 14 semi-final
loss to Castres, and Vern Cotter accept the Scotland job, even if he’s staying
for one last year without backline coach Alex King, while much blame placed
upon flyhalf Brock James for their two major losses although the main reason
was a shortcoming when trying to claw back the one point deficit in Dublin.
Not much has changed in terms of the transfer department but
their backline topped the stats in European rugby last season and contains
untold wing riches in Napolioni Nalaga – the top scorer in last year’s competition
with 8 tries and the Top 14 with 13 scores – former All Black Siveni Svivivatu
on the other side (along with Noa Nakataci for good measure), Wesley Fofana cutting
through the middle along with either Aureleien Rougerie and Regan King in the
centre and a choice between Lee Bryne and Jean Marcelin-Buttin at fullback. The
pack might be coming towards the end of their careers but are essential in
enabling the swift attacks Clermont launch at all times and in the likes of
Tomas Domingo, Clermont do have the capability to win a pack battle.
Brock James is a fine playmaker who has few equals in Europe
– despite what comments were made in the aftermath of last year – and with
Morgan Parra likely to take to the kicking tee for European duties there are no
worries for us on that score. While an injury to him is seriously bad news,
Theirry Lacrampe’s arrival is a huge bolster in that department and means a
solid base of kickers while Mike Delany impressed in some limited games last
season. A pools with Racing Metro – who have singed exceptionally but are still
integrating their new arrivals – Harlequins, who have been disappointing so far
this season and were convincingly beaten by Munster in a forward battle at the quarter
finals last year, and Scarlets should reap the rewards of a home draw in the quarter
finals again at the Stade Marcel Michelin where they’ve not lost in 63 home
games, and their away record in Europe has wins at Leinster and Saracens in the
past two years. While France could always be a distraction, they’ve focused on
Europe since winning the Top 14 in 2010 and are expected to do so once again, making
them the bet over last season’s finalists.
Toulon have added yet more players to their roster in both
the front and back row, chief amongst them Leicester’s Martin Castrogiovanni, and
the Blues’s ex All-Black Ali Williams at lock, but their real pulling power is
in the backs with legend Bryan Habana fresh from one of the finest extended
periods of his career including his two tires in the rugby game of the year at
Ellis Park against the All Blacks. Ex Wallaby Drew Mitchell , able to play either
the wing or fullback, has 63 Australia caps including several tri Nations and
two World Cups – he scored seven tries in 2007 – and adds yet more
experience to the strongest squad in European Rugby, while Johnny Wilkinson and
Frederic Michalak are two contrasting, but equally gifted, flyhalves. A pool
with Glasgow, Exeter, and Cardiff should bring 6 wins out of 6 and a home
quarter final, although it should be said that Leicester Tigers put them under
huge pressure for large parts of their quarter final last year at the Stade Felix
Mayol and Saracens played well below themselves in what was a drab Wembley
semifinal – they’re certainly not unbeatable on the road either.
Leinster’s wealth of experience and key Irish talent makes
them contenders despite the loss of Joe Schmidt to Ireland’s national job and
Johnny Sexton to the lure of Racing Metro, but it is those two factors which
are so hard to ignore despite the strength in depth at the club. Ian Madigan
has conducted himself with nothing but class so far and was particularly impressive
when deputizing for Sexton last year, but he has some way to go to reach Sexton’s
heights and the same must go for new flyhalf Jimmy Gopperth, despite solid
performances so far in Ireland. With Brian O’Driscoll’s fitness having to be managed
more and more, there’s a feeling that there are points of weakness for Leinster
that will be well tested in the tournament’s hardest pool that brings with it
trips to the Ospreys, Castres, and Leister’s 2011 final victims Northampton,
who look worth supporting for the trophy at a big price of 25/1.
Saints haven’t laid a blow in Europe since that turnaround
but were much improved towards the end of last year – when they overturned
Saracens on their own artificial surface (the first team to do so) – and their superb
singings over the summer of Wales and Lions star George North, England and
Lions prop Alex Corbisiero, and possibly most importantly Kahn Fotuali’I, one
of the world’s premier halfbacks and a gamechanger from since his arrival at
the Ospreys. With several England contenders amongst their ranks in the pack,
including Tom Wood and Countney Lawes, raising their games significantly this
season and a installing a mentality around Franklins Park that was last present
then they made it to the final in 2011.
The presence of Clermont’s Alex King’ as backline coach
looks to have been a masterstroke judged by some of the backplay they’ve put on
so far this season and Stephen Myler’s improved form is making for some fine
showings, while improved away performances point to strong showings on the
road. In such a tight pool, getting a home quarter final will be hard, but they
did win at Ravenhill last year to avenge a home humiliation and won at Saracens
in the semi-finals. They have the nightmare pool, but with Ospreys and Castres poor
on the road in this competition they can feel confident about a potential home
clean sweep if playing to their best and they have the quality to take wins
from France and Wales. 25/1 is on the generous side to say the least and a
value bet to have onside.
With Connacht and Zebre in their pools respectively, Toulouse
and Saracens have been given a golden chance to make it into the quarter finals
and both must be strongly considered this year, although ready preference is for
the English side with Toulouse’s away woes their Achilles heel in the
thorunment since they picked up the last of their four titles. Saracens’s squad
is without equal in the Premiership, making a challenge on two fronts something
that can be coped with more easily, thanks in no small part to the arrivals of
Billy Vunipola, James Johnston and Marcelo Bosch, all of whom should play a
part here, while Chris Ashton and David Strettle – enjoying a new lease of life
with the more expansive style of rugby being played since they moved to Adams
Park offering potent wing threats. Owen Farell’s temperament looks significantly
improved based upon his performances so far after a summer in Australia While
they were outmuscled and outclassed by Toulon last year at Wembley when their
pack put in a below par performance, they seem an improved side based on this
season’s evidence so far, are likely to have learned from that experience and
are worth strong consideration this time around with a home quarter final a realistic
aim.
Ulster and Leicester both have the sides to go far – with Leicester’s
first XV boasting upto 6 British and Irish Lions – but are seriously
handicapped by being drawn against eachother, and also having French challengers
Montpellier in their group. Losing quarter finalists last season, Montpellier
have been amongst France’s most impressive sides and sit at the head of a Top
14 that boasts the most strength in depth of Europe’s three leagues by far,
impressing with their home destructions Toulouse and Clermont amongst others in
freakish 25-0 and 43-3 routs that nobody else has been able to come remotely
close to this season despite the spate of home wins in the Top 14 this season.
With Scrum-half Jonathan Pelissie playing the best halfback
rugby of anyone in France at the moment – evidenced by his major hand in his
side against Clermont, when he scored two of his team's four tries and kicked
21 points to boot – François Trinh-Duc operating with ease and grace at
flyhalf, Mamuka Gorgodze, Robins Tulou,
James Beattie and Flourence Ouedraogo to make a pack that has torn all comers
to France this season, and the arrival of Internationals Rene Ranger – deeply impressive
in the summer internationals against France and a prolific breakdown operator
as well as explosive talent – and Robert Eboersohn (who made 206 tackles and 30
turnovers last year) arriving from the Cheetahs
will give them a new dimension. Their away form is a worry in a pool as strong
as this although they were giving Clermont significant problems before Francois
Trinh-Duc went off injured last year in the quarter final and their new
arrivals are likely to prove a great help with that task as well. If they can
make it through their pool – not an impossible task if they can produce their
form so far at home, which would certainly nil Ulster and Leicester in point
terms, then they would have a better chance in an away quarter final than the odds
suggest and they’re worth a small shot at 33/1.
Last but not least, crack European experts Munster are the
last team to recommend. The famous Red Army last won the title 6 years ago but
have reached three semi-finals since and look to have taken Rob Penney’s style
on board much quicker than expected, with the former New Zealand U20 and Canterbury
Man having been present since just May 2012. Last year was difficult for them,
with a changing of the guard and the playing style hard for them to take in all
at once – along with a lengthy injury list which constantly disputed their flow
last year.
Munster have always had one of the best packs in club rugby
and used their powerful, uncompromising game –especially being hitting the
breakdown in numbers – to upset a heavily favoured Harlequins side at the Stoop
last season and one could not fail to be impressed with the way they clawed
back a 10 points deficit against Clermont in the second half with remarkable composure
and determination before a late rattle had the result in doubt for the last 10 minutes,
despite being outplayed for large parts of the semi-final encounter in France,
a huge effort considering Clermont’s famed home record.
With Ronan O’Gara having moved on and Ian Keatley having taken
the reins at flyhalf Munster are far more flexible in attack than they’ve been
at any time since the Kidney era, with Keatley and JJ Hanrahan having impressed
pulling the strings. Conor Murray is one of the best scrumhalves in the competition
and a superb tactical influence with a wealth of experience who is more than
capable of applying the running game that Penny desires, and in Casey Lualua,
Simon Zebo, Keith Earls and Denis Hurley all capable of proving attacking edge,
Munster have the rare potential to switch between forward grunt - provided by
the likes of James Coughlan, Paul O’Connell, and Donnacha Ryan to name but
three - and swift backplay.
Arguably the most enticing factor with regards to backing
the Red Army for more success is their smashing pool with Gloucester,
Perpignan, and Edinburgh, all of whom loo overmatched compared to last year’s semi-finalists,
having failed to impress so far this season. Munster beat Edinburgh twice with
little fuss last year, have one of Europe’s best home records, and should go to
Gloucester – who have looked worryingly overmatched upfront at Kingsholm this
season and have been lucky to win their only home success against Northampton –
and even Perpignan – with no fear. Five out of 6 wins could be considered a
realistic target and a home quarter final with it, and given Munster’s record
at Thomond Park, it would not be a trip anyone wanted to take and Youwin’s 20/1
looks worth an each/way grab.
Advice
4 pts Clermont (5/1 general)
1 pt each/way Munster (20/1 Youwin, 16/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Northampton (25/1 Stan James, 22/1 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Montpellier (33/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 general)
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