Exeter (2/5) v
Cardiff (11/4)
Exeter did themselves proud in their first Heineken Cup
season and can feel confident about getting off to a fine start against Cardiff
Blues. The Chiefs were very flat against Leicester two weeks ago and brushed
aside by Northampton on the opening day but have done a fine job elsewhere and obliterated
Gloucester at Kingsholm last week with another fine forward performance – their
strongest asset this season – in a sharp turnaround from their disappointing loss
to Tigers. Cardiff won only once at this stage last season – that against the
relegation threatened Sale Sharks – despite scoring 148 points, suggesting their
problems are defensive, something that would be backed up by their loss to
Zebre in a 55 point shootout along with a 14 point defeat to Leinster. The absence
of Owen Williams – their vital playmaking talent in the centre –is a big blow
despite the presence of Lions Leigh Halfpenny and Alex Cuthbert along with
young talents Rhys Patchell and Lloyd Williams at halfback. There’s no doubting
that the Blues have a very capable side – one that is arguably much stronger in
terms of name then the Chiefs – but their results say different and Exeter are
fair favourites today. Particularly strong after the break –having won their
last three second halves this season – the second half handicap makes appeal.
Advice: 2 pts Exeter -3 on 2nd half handicap
(10/11 general)
Toulon (1/12) v
Glasgow (9)
Toulon’s road to retaining their title starts with their hardest
home pool game against unbeaten Pro12 leaders Glasgow, which is one generally expected
to be a comprehensive win. The handicap of 16 points is more than achievable – they
won their home pool stage games by 21, 62 and 20 points last year – but 9
changes have been made to the side that beat Clermont last week and they’ve
only beaten that mark twice that year – against Racing Metro and Brive. Glasgow’s
unbeaten start hasn’t come with particularly impressive performances – they should
have been beaten heavily at Ulster and had to work harder than expected to see
of Zebre and Scarlets –but they present a potentially stiff test for Toulon and
the best bet may be a home win by 11-20 points.
Advice: 1 pt Toulon to win by 11-20 points (12/5 Paddy
Power)
Racing Metro (6/5) v
Clermont (evs)
Clermont’s first test is their hardest, with a trip to
Racing Metro the most daunting challenge of their pool based on all evidence so
far. Much like most French clubs, Clermont have failed to win more than one
away game so far but their performances on the road have been more than
creditable and had it not been for the poor goal-kicking performances of Brock
James, it’s not overstatement to suggest that they may well have beaten Stade
Francais and Toulon. Racing’s new arrivals are yet to fully integrate themselves
barring Johnny Sexton – and come here off the back of a home defeat to Grenoble
last week – so don’t make a huge amount of appeal against last season’s
finalists. This has been a particularly tight game in the past, and it’s interesting
to note that 6 of Racing Metro’s games have gone under 40 points this year.
Advice: No bet.
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