3.15 Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) (Class
1) (3YO plus)
Winner €2,746,080
Ante Post: 2 pts each/way Treve, Arc De Triomphe (8/1
general, 12 Aug)
Advice: 1pt each/way Kizuna (15/2 general)
Very Nice Name: Impressive progression over the winter in
Qatar, ending with well beaten, but creditable third at Meydan; Well beaten in
King Goerge but creditable runs the last twice even if he looks to have no
chance on heav defeats to Orfevre and Novelist recently. 
Al Kazeem: Career threatened by serious injury but back
better than ever and now the leading the 10 furlong ranks in Europe, having won
three Group 1’s this year, most impressive when drawing away from Declaration
of War in fine styl to win Eclipse; At that point, looked a prime contender but
no wins since and gave impression with two subsequent performances that he may
have peaked in midsummer; Ground excuse for his International defeat running
thin given his defeat to the Fugue last time, which while carrying no shame,
came on slowish surface –more than was expected – and he’s run just once on
soft ground in maiden; Widest of 18 in draw. 
Joshua Tree: A close second to Verema last time and
established globetrotter but miles behind St Nicolas Abbey in Coronation Cup
and will need a miracle to change that. 
Meandre: Once sixth in this race for Andre Fabre in 2011 and
then unplaced in 2012 renewal before leaving France; Not hit the same heights
there and faced an off peak Novelist in Germany before winning weak Group 1
latest; Hard to imagine him getting truly involved. 
Orfevre: One of world’s outstanding performers and came into
last year’s renewal highly fancied to land elusive Arc for Japan; Should have
done so, circling, then sprinting clear of the field when making his chance but
not proving straightforward in finish (hung, collided with rail) before being agonisingly
reeled in by Solemia, who just outstayed him in heavy ground; Since beaten a
nose by Gentildonna in Japan Cup before two easy wins to warm up, including
another Prix Foy win to absolve doubts about well being; No reason why he can’t
go close again for all that this a much better race this year and will have to
give everything in effort this year. 
Going Somewhere: Group 1 form and plenty of it in Argentina,
but twice and beaten favourite after landing Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini and
well beaten in the Foy; Hard to get behind even as an outsider. 
Haya Landa: Consistent in her efforts at the top level,
having placed plenty of times in valuable group races; Fourth in last year’s
renewal will have many reaching for her as big outsider but that a particularly
poor renewal compared to this and doesn’t make appeal as one to outrun her
price. 
Pririka: Got better of Haya Landa in fine style back in May
here but not come close to winning since and brushed aside by, amongst others,
Orfevre and Novelist in the time being; If the ground gets very soft she could
do what Haya Landa did last year but looks overmatched. 
Flintshire: Built on the promise of first two starts in fine
style (impressive winner on debut) with pair of impressive pattern wins before
withering turn of foot to land Grand Prix De Paris; Most laboured performance
of career so far when a lacklustre fourth in Prix Niel, but that was run on
softest ground he’s encountered so far and maybe no coincidence that two
defeats have come on slow ground; Needs fast ground to show his best. 
Leading Light: Nowhere on debut but improvement made to win
1m1f maiden on second start and unbeaten this year, although always prominent,
setting a strong pace, and then finding plenty to win both 3yo conditions event
and Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh before outstaying opposition to land
Queen’s Vase at Ascot; Those wins gave him quite the dour appearance but neat
turn of foot he showed when landing St Leger convincingly, with distances that
give him similar line of form to Ruler of the World; Not sure if that’s best
preparation but lot going in his favour to say the least and cant be discounted
from plum draw. 
Ocovango: Prime Derby contender for master trainer after
Prix Greffulhe win, and since been unlucky at top level, not getting the best
of runs in either the Derby behind Ruler of the World or the Grand Prix De
Paris behind Flintshire; Looked beaten fair and square when Third in Niel
however and not sure what, if any, improvement forthcoming. 
Pengalai Pavillion: One of Fabre’s small army going for
this, and showed fine attitude to win Prix Turenne at Saint-Cloud after close
group 2 second in the Grand Prix De Deauville the time before; Step upto this
trip has clearly improved him but most, if not all formlines, see him with huge
amount of improvement to make. 
Kizuna: Like many of Japan’s top horses, now coming to take
a crack at this race following landmarks success in Asia, taking the Kyoto
Shimbun Hai with a trademark fast finish and then doing same to land Japanese
Derby; Big chance on that form and prep win in Prix Niel was as good as one
could have asked for given his absence from the track, travelling best of them
all before just holding on from Ruler of the World in a desperate finish; Big
improvement can obviously be expected for that and looks sure to go well here. 
Ruler of the World: At one time, the leader of the classic
generation after clear cut Derby win, having given impression that he was
clearly smart with Curragh maiden win (front two well clear), and then again
when running away with Chester Vase previously; Majorly disappointing when only
laboured fifth in Irish Derby but that not his true showing and one of most
promising trials in Prix Niel where some will say he should have beaten
Japanese Derby winner Kizuna but for getting clear run; Both protagonists set
to improve for that and can make bold bid; Draw very ideal.
Sahawar: Consistently coming up short at Listed level,
getting close to win but not looking likely to graduate to group level anytime
soon; Impossible to see him being good enough to win here. 
Intello: Looked as if he could be something else in
Newmarket romp at beginning of season and built on that when desperately
unlucky third in Poulians; Made fine amends when routing his field in Poulains,
having led all the way into a strong gallop; Third in Jacques Le Marois at
least as good an effort considering the strength of the race and in good health
with smart warmup win; All the talent possible to make a big impression here,
for all that this trip a huge unknown; 
Treve: Four runs and four wins, Juvenile run, better when a
clear cut winner in Saint-Cloud conditions event, but that nothing compared to
her obliteration of the Prix De Diane field that included subsequent Irish Oaks
winner Chiquita and with another Group 1 winner; First run since and arguably
just as impressive when scything through field to land Vermille in fine style
last time, never better than at end of contest when brushing away rock solid
Wild Coco and Tasaday with minimum of fuss despite troubled run; Draw of 15
might put some off, but for a hold up horse it’s better than an inside rail
draw and holds first rate chance.
VERDICT: With the top nine in the markets having won a
Group1, this has the feel of the strongest, and most anticipated renewals in
recent years and arguably the world’s strongest race of the year so far. The
ground is likely to be soft at least, although all of the main contenders have
shown no problems with it. A bigger key influence upon any markets is likely to
have been the draw, with 9 out of the last 10 winners having been in single
figure stalls – the exception (Dalakahni) won in a 14 runner field. In the
aftermath of last year’s thriller I’ve fancied Orfevre to go very close to
making amends but following an impressive Prix Foy win he’s become too short
after a good draw and is in a far deeper renewal here – not one he can’t win by
any means, but still one that should see him bigger than 2/1, especially given
that we have ante-post cover on him from long ago. In such a big field, still
15 might not be ideal, but as a hold up horse it shouldn’t hamper TREVE too
much and our ante post fancy is still worth backing at 11/2. There’s the worry
about getting the gaps at the right time but she proved her Diane win to be no
fluke when scything through the Vermille field in fine style and if getting the
gaps, will be a threat to all with her late run. Of the large male three year
old challenge, I feel that Intello may have the most raw talent, but wether he
wants 12 furlongs is one thing, and trying it here for the first time is quite
another, so KIZUNA – upon the assumption he’ll improve as much as seems possible
from the Niel when he beat Ruler of the World – seems to be the best of the
challenge ahead of Leading Light, who can go well for Ballydoyle) and worth backing to supplement a very decent position at the top of the market.
No comments:
Post a Comment