Pool 1: Leinster (5/6), Northampton (5/2), Ospreys (9),
Castres (10)
The ‘pool of death’ honour undoubtedly goes towards Pool 1,
with two time winners and Pro 12 Champions Leinster, top Welsh region Ospreys, and
Top 14 Champions Castres all facing off, but last season’s beaten Premiership
finalists Northampton are a serious threat to all after an impressive summer
recruitment spell, which amongst others, bought a key backline change in the addition
of Clermont’s Alex King organizing a backline which can now boast George North
amongst its members, while the additions of Alex Corbisero and Khan Fotuali
look to have given them an extra edge.
They’ve failed to win only twice, the first defeat coming
when they were robbed of what would have been a deserved victory at Gloucester -when
a last minute scrum that was incorrectly awarded despite television replays
suggesting that at least four Gloucester players were in front of the restart,
and Ben Morgan’s illegal fishing of the ball at the resulting drive which bought
the match-winning penalty – and the second being a draw at Welford Road last
weekend against a Leicester Tigers side who have previously had the better of
them. The 19-19 draw signifies the improvement that they’ve made from the previous
season, where the Tigers thrashed them 36-8 at Franklins Gardens towards the
end of the regular season and blew them away in the final 37-17, and if they
can repeat such efforts on the road in this pool, the losing bonus points could
be enough to take the pool.
Leinster are worthy favourites for this pool – it’s
important to remember that they stormed all three of their Challenge Cup knockout
games and the fact that they beat every side but Clermont last year – but the
loss of Johnny Sexton and Joe Schmidt is an immeasurable blow and a great opportunity
for others including Northampton, who themselves have made enough improvement
to challenge Leinster over their two games and are the value bet at the prices.
Ospreys’ huge pack strength is always going to make them
hard to beat at home – they’ve won 13 games at home since 2008 in this competition
– but they’ve lost 13 times on the road since then and the way that Leicester
and Toulouse beaten them by 16 and 17 points last season suggests they’ll struggle
to take the points on the road needed to qualify. Castres’ will be a nightmarish trip for anyone
to deal with and the fact they won the Top 14 is testament to the heights they
can reach, but their away record is as poor as Ospreys’s and that is likely to
cost them dearly.
Advice: 2 pts Northampton (5/2 Bet Victor)
Pool 2: Toulon (2/11), Glasgow (8), Exeter (25), Cardiff
Blues (28)
This is Toulon’s pool to lose, and one that should end up in
a home quarter final with bonus point wins to be had at the Stade Felix Mayol
and only Glasgow’s away trip likely to bring any difficult for the superstar
squad that won the title last year and has since added Drew Mitchell and Bryan
Habana to an already start studded backline. Glasgow and Exeter should put up
some resistance at home and give us a cracking game or two against eachother, but
both look overmatched and clear of Cardiff Blues who could end up pointless
from the section.
Pool 3: Saracens
(10/11), Toulouse (10/11), Connacht (100), Zebre (500)
A delightful draw for Toulouse and Saracens, both of whom
can feel confident about getting through to the quarter finals with Zebre and
Connacht in their pools. No trip to Galway will be an easy one but the reverse
fixture offers plenty and the Italian minnows should earn ten points each-time
around. Of the two, Saracens make more appeal thanks to their more solid away
form, with Toulouse vulnerable on the road for the last three seasons and
Saracens having been near infallible since they moved to a plastic pitch
sometime in the last year. With the Premiership leaders looking capable of
taking a losing bonus at least from France, they get our vote to top a tight
pool which should have two quarter finalists.
Advice: 1 pt Saracens (10/11 Spreadex)
Pool 4: Clermont
Auvergne (1/2), Racing-Metro 92 (4), Harlequins (5), Llanelli Scarlets (40)
Unless Harlequins improve themselves, this could be a fairly
straightforward for Clermont whose main problem in recent years has been
killing games in the knockout stages that they’ve dominated. Racing Metro on
the road first up is a very tough start for the Jaunards, but Jacky Lorenzetti’s
ide have struggled to fit in a whole rack of new signings so far and are likely
to be seen to better effect later on in the tournament. Unbeaten in 64 games at
the Stade Marcel Michelin, it should be a matter of how much in France and
their away record has wins at Leinster and Saracens in the last two seasons,
which spells trouble for Harlequins unless they improve rapidly from what we’ve
seen so far, while in Clermont they face a side with a pack just as fierce as
the Munster one that stopped them in their tracks when favoured in the quarter
final so far. Scarlets, having lost Owen Williams and Goerge North, look well
overmatched, even more so than last year when Clermont took 10 points off them
in the group stages, and the Jaurnards could be a solid lump job at ½ for those
who fancy it.
Pool 5: Leicester (6/5), Ulster (6/4), Montpellier (4),
Treviso (150)
This is likely to be one of the tightest pools, with Ulster
and Leicester facing off against eachother, but both have a serious task in
going to Montpellier and the quarter finalists of last year are worth chancing
to reach at least that stage once again. The only side to beat Toulon – and it
was an absolute thrashing that saw them through to the quarter finals- in the competition
last year, Montpellier drew with the champions in the first game of the Top 14
this season and have since beaten Toulouse 25-0 and Clermont by an astonishing 40
points. If repeating those performances in the Heineken Cup, they would take
4-0 wins against Leicester and Ulster which makes them prime bonus point contenders
assuming they can negotiate a tricky trip to Treviso, while the arrival of Rene
Ranger and Robert Ebensohn could give them the power and pace to try for losing
bonus points on the road – they won all but one game last year but at the same time
were in a far weaker pool. Leicester and Ulster look impossible to split
properly, so Treviso will have a huge part to play.
Advice: 1 pt Montpellier to qualify (3/1 Paddy Power)
Pool 6: Munster (5/6), Perpignan (13/5), Gloucester (5),
Edinburgh (25)
Semi-finalists last year, Munster are the bet of the pool
section. Rob Penney had a mostly difficult first season in charge of Munster, especially
domestically, transitioning a side that had been almost entirely based upon
pack power and breakdown force to a side playing a fast, fluent offloading style,
while managing the departure of Ronan O’Gara and replacing him with Ian
Kealtey. To be fair to Penney, he has
done an excellent job based on this season’s evidence, with both Keatley and JJ
Hanrahan looking capable playmakers and Conor Murray the fulcrum of the switch
between flair and tactical nous, while the heavy duty lock partnership of Donnacha
O’Callaghan and Paul O’Connell brings the back carrying and breakdown force
needed for away days.
Gloucester are down as second favourites but have played significantly
below their best so far this season and looked worryingly overmatched in a
heavy defeat to Exeter last weekend, and while Perpignan is a very tough trip
Munster’s abrasive pack is a weapon that can be used to take at least a losing boons
point from the Frenchmen and in two knockout games on the road last year they
were superb – not forgetting their unlucky defeat against Racing Metro to
kickstart their campaign last year. Bonus point wins should be on the agenda at
home against all three of their opponents and Penney’s men should feel
confident of taking at least one win on the road, making the 5/6 about them the
bet of the pools so far.
Advice: 10 pts Munster (5/6 Boylesports)
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