The Challenge Cup’s status as the second competition in
European rugby has been underlined and hardened by the fact that in three of
the last four years, a side dropping from Europe’s elite has won this prize
since the changes made to the tournament in 2009-10 which gave the Heineken Cup
parachute to three of the eight quarter finalists down from the pool stages,
with Cardiff, Biarritz, and Leinster last year having all dropped down to take
honours here.
With Connacht and Zebre’s drawing looking to have given
Toulouse and Saracens passages into the quarter finals of the Heineken, several
strong pools have been created as a result, with the first section – housing
Leinster, Ospeys, Northampton and Castres – in particular potentially offering
a very strong dropdown, while Pools 4 – with Harlequins, Racing Metro and
Scarlets all having to face Clermont Auvergne – and 5, with Leicester,
Montpellier, and Ulster all fighting for what is likely to be one spot –
offering potentially strong dropdown victims. Leinster came down last year
thanks to having Clermont to play twice and have the pool of death this time
around, while Racing and Harlequins are just two who could potentially see
themselves dropped down to this competition come January.
While 11/10 may seem short this early in the season, there
are doubts to be had with many of the main contenders and we’re guaranteed
three of the eight quarter finalists – even if they are all going to be drawn
away.
Bath and Stade Francais share favouritism, but only one looks deserving of a single figure price. Stade, our pick from the pools last season,
made it all the way to the final against Leinster despite two away knockout
ties and lost no shame in defeat, but they were never really in contention for
domestic honours – a huge pull in France, sometimes moreso than elsewhere – and
concentrated their efforts into European success.
This year, with the table so far minutely balanced – 7
points separate leaders Montpellier from tenth placed Castres – keeping the
early pace is likely to be the main priority. That shouldn’t hurt them in a
soft pool with London Irish, Calvalieri Parato, and Luisitanos XV, from which
them and Irish should qualify, and they look likely to have a home draw in the
last eight, but from then on if they’re still in the race for the playoffs at
home (something which looks likely, especially as they’ll have been boosted by
the arrivals of Morne Steyn and Digby Ioane to boost their backline), it’s
highly likely that they’ll put France first in that situation and against an
elite side dropping down, that could spell trouble. However they surely are the
best side in the competition and they don’t look too bad as front runners for
all that 9/2 isn’t the value we found on them last year.
Bath were blown away in the quarters by Stade last year, and
while the arrivals of Gavin Henson, George Ford and Jonathan Joseph, the loss of Michael Classens at 9 is a crucial one and his
partnership with Stephen Donald was crucial for game management, especially on
the road, and while Ford’s made 239 metres with ball in hand, there’s a worry
about them coming up short against the tougher sides in the competition later
on and they don’t represent value at just 6/1.
Of the rest, only
Wasps made any real appeal as potential semi-finalists who could launch a
trophy winning challenge. Quarter finalists for the last four years, Wasps have
been beaten by the eventual winner in each of those tournaments but have
progressed with ease each time, taking home spots in three of those four
tournaments even if they were beaten at that stage on all but one occasion.
The loss of Stephen
Jones is a negative given their backline but it still doesn’t take away from
the fact that they’ve got one of the fastest and most dynamic backlines in the competiton
with Tom Vardnell – when back from injury – and Christian Wade set to show
their stuff while Elliot Daly gives options at centre and fullback. Andy Goode
may not release those three as much but to his credit his game management may
be more helpful to Wasps in the latter stages and they should see of Grenoble,
Bayonne, and Vidana for another quarterfinal. The 14/1 about them is the only
idea of value that we have, with the rest of the Premiership sides – apart from
Sale, whose heavy rotation is offputting with mind to a title tilt – and the
Top 14 sides focused on avoiding the drop in France, along with poor away
records.
Advice
7 pts Any Heineken Cup
team (10/11 Bet365)
2 pts Stade Francais (9/2
general)
1 pt each/way Wasps
(14/1 general)
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