Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Champions League 2013/14: Group F

Arsenal (6/4 Group, 22/1 Tournament)

How do you define success in the modern game? It’s been eight years since Arsenal won a trophy – a fact you didn’t need me to tell you – but this is the Gooners’ 16th straight season in Europe’s premier competition. Of all their top four finishes in history, 40.75% of those have come under Wegner, and the last time that he failed to get to the last 16 was in 1999, when Arsenal finished third to Barcelona and Fiorentina. The prospects of such a situation as 1999 occurring again is very real however given the strength of his section, with two clubs who have huge amounts of champions league experience and realistic title aims, for all that Wenger’s men have made as a good a start as one could possibly have hoped for in the Premiership.


At the top of the table, the gooners are unbeaten since their 3-1 loss to Aston Villa on the first day, having won every single other fixture to sit a deserved top of the pile, and the only game they’ve failed to win since was a Carling Cup game against West Brom where they played – as is their wont – a young, inexperienced side. The big news was the arrival of Mezut Ozil on deadline day – and his arrival has given the team a new attacking dimension going forward with several assists created in the Premier League already – but Mathieu Flamnini’s arrivals, while unheralded, has given the defence the anchor they needed while Aarom Ramsey’s resurgence has taken huge pressure off the improved Olivier Giroud. Working in tandem with Jack Wilshere, they can cause big problems for others and when on top form, have upset Europe’s biggest – ask Barcelona and Bayern Munich – but they are due for a significant upping in class after winning at Marsellie in week one and it remains to be seen how their defence copes with much better attacking forces.



Borussia Dortmund (5/2 Group, 22/1 Tournament)

They say a week is a long time in football but just try a year. Go back two seasons and Borussia Dortmund, fresh from having overturned the behemoths of Bayern Munich, finished bottom of a group that contained two of their subsequent opponents in tonight’s rivals Marsellie and Premiership leaders Arsenal, along with Olympiakos, with just 4 points from their 6 games. Fast forward two years later, and they came within a minute of taking the final to extra time against treble winners Bayern Munich.


Given that they had largely the same side  - there are only 3 changes between the side that started the Wembley final and their 3-0 loss to Marsellie that season – it can only serve as a virtue to the benfits of the experience that is so vital with that competition and with a final under their belts and the side still together barring Mario Gotze – who has been more than replaced by the arriving  Henrikh Mkhitaryan, a constant source of vision and goals from  midfield, while Pierre-Emerick Abymayang gives them a new dimension upfront, playing with Robert Lewanodwski until his move to Bayern in January.

Klopp’s side have stumbled a  little since their loss at Napoli – where a red card killed their chances in a game they were already well on the back foot in – with two draws since, but there’s a long way to go still in this group and a 5-0 thrashing of Freiburg bodes well. They should at the least be present in the race to get through the group in second place by the end, even if it remains to be seen how they cope with a league and title challenge.

Napoli (2/1 Group, 28/1 Tournament)

The loss of Edinson Cavani, who scored 78 goals in three league seasons, was always likely to be a big blow for Napoli but they’ve traded one world class player for tons more squad depth and can go far in the competition with previous winner and Champions League expert Rafa Benitez at the helm.

Cavani’s replacement, Gonzalo Higuain scored 107 goals in 190 games at Madrid in league football alone and has a wealth of experience at this level that he used to good effect against Dortmund. On the wings Dries Mertens – with 3 goals in 62 appearances over the last two seasons – and Jose Calelljon, finally getting the first team football he deserves after seasons on thye bench at Madrid, give pace and options to backup Lorenzo Insigne, one of Europe’s most promising lplayers. With Valon Behrami and Gokhan Inler having taken the midfield reins, Marek Hamisk has been one of Europe’s best players so far, romancing forward with no defensive duties to anchor him down.

The change from the rigid three-man defence to a four-at-the-back formation has been remarkably smooth, with Napoli winning all but one Serie A game and looking secure at the back for the large part against Borussia Dortmund, despite the loss of Hugo Campagnro to Inter along with Mazzari, with Raul Alibol having done an outstanding job so far after his arrival from Madrid, and they can feel confident about qualifying following that opening day win.

Marseille (40/1 Group, 500/1 Tournament)


One of France’s most consistent teams, Marseille haven’t received the wealth of investment that Monaco and PSG have so enjoyed over the last couple of seasons but still continue to be close to the best of the rest. A club with quite the pedigree - The first (and so far only) French club to be crowned champions of Europe, having also come runners up in the 1998-99 and 2003-04 UEFA Cup – Dider’s Deschamps’s side were quarter finalists in 2011/12 but look to have rather reduced prospects of making even the last 16 this time around.

Elie Baup’s side do have considerable talents amongst them – not least in the pivotal French playmaker - fundamental not only to OM, but also the French national side following his progression over the last two years – and Jordan Ayem, a powerhouse striker capable of troubling defences at all times. However, there’s a singifcant depth problem beside the first XI, and a hoem defeat to Arsenal suggests that they’ll have trouble getting anything outside of France and that spells and early exit.


VERDICT: This is the hardest group in the competition bar none and anyone of Arsenal, Napoli, and Borussia Dortmund, with Marseille looking outclassed. Week one’s results obviously favour Napoli and Arsenal most, but it would be folly to discount Borussia Dortmund’s qualification chances and the 8/11 that Bet Victor offer on them qualifying I the value bet of the section. Dortmund were well beaten at Napoli but so many of Europe’s top sides could have said that without such luck at the Sao Paolo and taking points from Germany will be a different matter.

Advice: 3 pts Borussia Dortmund to qualify (8/11 Bet Victor)




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