Saracens (4/7) v
Toulouse (6/4)
A true blockbuster with Premiership leaders Saracens hosting
four time winners Toulouse at Wembley, with the home side just fancied to take
the spoils. Both sides can feel good about going deep into the competition but
Toulouse’s away record – no wins in the Top 14 away from the Stade Ernest
Wallon – has held them back in recent seasons and if Saracens can put their
best foot forward they can take a vital win.
Advice: 2 pts Saracens to win by 1-12 points (11/8 Skybet)
Leicester (1/33) v
Treviso (25/1)
Considering their
previous history in Northern Ireland, a losing bonus point was an excellent
result for Leicester on the first game, who were overpowered for large parts of
their opener against Ulster in an onslaught at the beginning of the second
half, with an abrasive backrow performance helping them stay in touch. Things
should be easier for them at Welford Road, where Treviso come after a heavy
defeat against Montpellier that could have been by a further margin, and this
should be a convicting success with a bonus point. The early handicaps of 22 or
more points are achievable, but Leicester took their foot off the gas big time
in this fixture last well so going high on points could be the way to turn.
Advice: 1 pt over
47.5 points (5/6 general)
Cardiff (7/2) v
Toulon (2/9)
Cardiff’s defeat
against Exeter did not bode at all well for their European campaign this season
while they launched a strong second half fightback, even a 15 point margin of
defeat was hugely flatering to them with Exeter well clear and anything half as
bad against Toulon could see a very wide margin of defeat. The holders hit some
frightening heights against Glasgow before their second half fightback and
while they’ve only won one away game so far this season, they should be good
enough to take another win from Wales, as they did last season. That was a
tight affair, but on all the evidence shown this season the previous season’s
holders won’t be working as hard this time around and a 10 point handicap is of
interest, although an 11-20 point winning margin possibly offers more value.
Advice: 1 pt Toulon to win by 11-20 points (16/5 Bet Victor)
Zebre (13/10) v
Connacht (4/6)
Connacht have done Glaway proud in the Heineken Cup and
produced one of their best performances when pressuring Saracens to the last
minute in a game that they could well have won last week with a little more
composure in the 22. The men from the sportsground took 4 points from Zebre
last year and despite poor league form, seem set to do it again, with a 2 point
handicap a very generous feeling offering.
Advice: 2 pts Connacht -3 (10/11 Boylesports)
Leinster (1/10) v
Castres (7)
Leinster’s win at Ospreys was a 4 pointer straight out of
the Joe Schmidt days, with incredible industry at the breakdown and in defence
stopping the Ospreys in their tracks despite having just 30% of possession and
territory for large parts of the second half. Castres’s win against
Northampton, built upon the same qualities, wasn’t unexpected, but the French
champions are different beasts on the road and Leinster can feel confident of
making it two from two. A handicap of 14 points might be big for some in what’s
likely to be a very abrasive encounter where much will come down to the breakdown
battle, especially given the presence of Castres’ first XV on the field in a
surprising move for some.
Advice: No bet.
Montpellier (4/11) v
Ulster (11/5)
Ulster strted their European campaign in style when beating
Leicester but a trip to Top 14 leaders Montpellier is a totally different task
and Mark McCall’s men are in for their toughest game of the season. Montpellier
have proven to be unstoppable at home over the past two seasons, winning
comfortably over all three of their opponents - including a 20 point demolition
of Toulon – in last year’s pool, and ‘going to the head of the Top 14 on the
basis of two obliterations of Toulouse, ‘nilled’ in emphatic style, and
Clermont, taken down by a staggering 40 points in what was arguably France’s
most impressive performance of the season. Ulster must be given every respect
coming here but Montpellier are a growing force and look well capable of
denying the Northern Irishmen anything, with a 6 point handicap more than
passable.
Advice: 6 pts Montpellier -6 (10/11 general)
Scarlets (10/11) v
Racing (10/11)
The Scarlets won much deserved plaudits for a fantastic performance
when beating Harlequins last weekend and will make for dangerous opponents if
in the same form this weekend, but Racing Metro’s suffocating defence and
brutal breakdown work will present a different challenge altogether and they
might be able to sneak a win from Wales. Racing’s work in defence and on the
floor stopped arguably the best attack in Europe – albeit at home – from
scoring a try and the same industry is more than capable of reaping a result.
Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro (10/11 Boylesports)
Munster (2/9) v
Gloucester (7/2)
Munster’s opening performance in their defeat at Edinbrugh
was as incompetent as it was disappointing, with an especially inept backrow
showing proving just as crucial in their defeat as several handling errors and
JJ Hanrahan’s incredibly mistimed chip that gave the game to the hosts. There’s
reason to expect a much improved performance at Thomond Park this weekend, and
with Gloucester’s pack having been underpowered this season – even in victory
against Perpignan at Kingsholm last week which may have owed a lot to Sofiane
Guitoune’s yellow at the beginning of the second half – Munster have an
opportunity to get back on track in the pool, especially given the second
string side that Nigel Davies has named here. A 13 point handicap, with that in
mind, is passable and proabaly a bare minimum.
Advice: 1 pt Munster -13 (10/11 general)
Northampton (1/4) v
Ospreys (16/5)
Northampton could have taken more than just a losing bonus
point from their trip to Castres last week, and if able to put in the same
forward and set piece performance, can take a convincing win against the
Ospreys, who were smothered against Leinster in the second half and come up
against a pack that has the force needed to take on their studded forward five.
Ospreys were beaten heavily by Toulouse and Leicester last year on their
travels and could be on their way to a similar defeat here.
Advice: 2 pts Northampton -8 (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Perpignan (1/10) v
Edinburgh (13/2)
An unfathomable late kick, numerous handling errors, and
appalling breakdown effort from Munster’s backrow along with an exceptional
effort from Greig Laidlaw gave Edinburgh a fantastic win against the Red Army
but Perpignan could bring them down to earth with a bang. The French travels
were unlucky to lose at Gloucester last week to a late try and have – like most
French sides – a home record to be envious of. A 13 point handicap looks heavy
with the confidence Edinburgh will have received from their success but is
passable.
Advice: 1 pt Perpignan -13 (10/11 general)
Glasgow (3/10) v
Chiefs (5/2)
Glasgow were blown apart for 40 minutes at Toulon in the same
way that Exeter took apart Cardiff Blues in the first 40 and while both sides
were also outplayed for half the game, the circumstances were understandable,
with Toulon being European champions at home and Exeter having 13 men for 10
minutes with the game safe. The Chiefs can present a serious challenge if their
pack prdouces the same performance it did to win at Gloucester, but home
advantage makes Glasgow worthy favourites and they can take a win by 1-12
points.
Advice: 1 pt Glasgow to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)
Clermont (1/66) v
Quins (66)
Clermont were stopped by a fearsome and determined Racing
Metro defensive effort but dominated the game from start to finish and can make
up for that infront of their own fans at the Stade Marcel Michelin, where
they’re approaching 70 games unbeaten. Harlequins were deservedly beaten and
totally outplayed by the Scarlets last week and unless they’ve improved
significantly, don’t look like being able to live with Clermont’s intensity on
any of the form thet’ve shown this season and they could struggle to keep
afloat if Les Jaunards bring their best form to the table.
Advice: 3 pts Clermont -17 (10/11 general)
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