Heineken Cup 2013/14: Matchday 2

Saracens (4/7) v Toulouse (6/4)

A true blockbuster with Premiership leaders Saracens hosting four time winners Toulouse at Wembley, with the home side just fancied to take the spoils. Both sides can feel good about going deep into the competition but Toulouse’s away record – no wins in the Top 14 away from the Stade Ernest Wallon – has held them back in recent seasons and if Saracens can put their best foot forward they can take a vital win.

Advice: 2 pts Saracens to win by 1-12 points (11/8 Skybet)

Leicester (1/33) v Treviso (25/1)

Considering their previous history in Northern Ireland, a losing bonus point was an excellent result for Leicester on the first game, who were overpowered for large parts of their opener against Ulster in an onslaught at the beginning of the second half, with an abrasive backrow performance helping them stay in touch. Things should be easier for them at Welford Road, where Treviso come after a heavy defeat against Montpellier that could have been by a further margin, and this should be a convicting success with a bonus point. The early handicaps of 22 or more points are achievable, but Leicester took their foot off the gas big time in this fixture last well so going high on points could be the way to turn.

Advice: 1 pt over 47.5 points (5/6 general)

Cardiff (7/2) v Toulon (2/9)

Cardiff’s defeat against Exeter did not bode at all well for their European campaign this season while they launched a strong second half fightback, even a 15 point margin of defeat was hugely flatering to them with Exeter well clear and anything half as bad against Toulon could see a very wide margin of defeat. The holders hit some frightening heights against Glasgow before their second half fightback and while they’ve only won one away game so far this season, they should be good enough to take another win from Wales, as they did last season. That was a tight affair, but on all the evidence shown this season the previous season’s holders won’t be working as hard this time around and a 10 point handicap is of interest, although an 11-20 point winning margin possibly offers more value.

Advice: 1 pt Toulon to win by 11-20 points (16/5 Bet Victor)

Zebre (13/10) v Connacht (4/6)

Connacht have done Glaway proud in the Heineken Cup and produced one of their best performances when pressuring Saracens to the last minute in a game that they could well have won last week with a little more composure in the 22. The men from the sportsground took 4 points from Zebre last year and despite poor league form, seem set to do it again, with a 2 point handicap a very generous feeling offering.

Advice: 2 pts Connacht -3 (10/11 Boylesports)

Leinster (1/10) v Castres  (7)

Leinster’s win at Ospreys was a 4 pointer straight out of the Joe Schmidt days, with incredible industry at the breakdown and in defence stopping the Ospreys in their tracks despite having just 30% of possession and territory for large parts of the second half. Castres’s win against Northampton, built upon the same qualities, wasn’t unexpected, but the French champions are different beasts on the road and Leinster can feel confident of making it two from two. A handicap of 14 points might be big for some in what’s likely to be a very abrasive encounter where much will come down to the breakdown battle, especially given the presence of Castres’ first XV on the field in a surprising move for some.

Advice: No bet.

Montpellier (4/11) v Ulster (11/5)

Ulster strted their European campaign in style when beating Leicester but a trip to Top 14 leaders Montpellier is a totally different task and Mark McCall’s men are in for their toughest game of the season. Montpellier have proven to be unstoppable at home over the past two seasons, winning comfortably over all three of their opponents - including a 20 point demolition of Toulon – in last year’s pool, and ‘going to the head of the Top 14 on the basis of two obliterations of Toulouse, ‘nilled’ in emphatic style, and Clermont, taken down by a staggering 40 points in what was arguably France’s most impressive performance of the season. Ulster must be given every respect coming here but Montpellier are a growing force and look well capable of denying the Northern Irishmen anything, with a 6 point handicap more than passable.

Advice: 6 pts Montpellier -6 (10/11 general)

Scarlets (10/11) v Racing (10/11)

The Scarlets won much deserved plaudits for a fantastic performance when beating Harlequins last weekend and will make for dangerous opponents if in the same form this weekend, but Racing Metro’s suffocating defence and brutal breakdown work will present a different challenge altogether and they might be able to sneak a win from Wales. Racing’s work in defence and on the floor stopped arguably the best attack in Europe – albeit at home – from scoring a try and the same industry is more than capable of reaping a result.  

Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro (10/11 Boylesports)

Munster (2/9) v Gloucester (7/2)

Munster’s opening performance in their defeat at Edinbrugh was as incompetent as it was disappointing, with an especially inept backrow showing proving just as crucial in their defeat as several handling errors and JJ Hanrahan’s incredibly mistimed chip that gave the game to the hosts. There’s reason to expect a much improved performance at Thomond Park this weekend, and with Gloucester’s pack having been underpowered this season – even in victory against Perpignan at Kingsholm last week which may have owed a lot to Sofiane Guitoune’s yellow at the beginning of the second half – Munster have an opportunity to get back on track in the pool, especially given the second string side that Nigel Davies has named here. A 13 point handicap, with that in mind, is passable and proabaly a bare minimum.

Advice: 1 pt Munster -13 (10/11 general)

Northampton (1/4) v Ospreys (16/5)

Northampton could have taken more than just a losing bonus point from their trip to Castres last week, and if able to put in the same forward and set piece performance, can take a convincing win against the Ospreys, who were smothered against Leinster in the second half and come up against a pack that has the force needed to take on their studded forward five. Ospreys were beaten heavily by Toulouse and Leicester last year on their travels and could be on their way to a similar defeat here.

Advice: 2 pts Northampton -8 (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Perpignan (1/10) v Edinburgh (13/2)

An unfathomable late kick, numerous handling errors, and appalling breakdown effort from Munster’s backrow along with an exceptional effort from Greig Laidlaw gave Edinburgh a fantastic win against the Red Army but Perpignan could bring them down to earth with a bang. The French travels were unlucky to lose at Gloucester last week to a late try and have – like most French sides – a home record to be envious of. A 13 point handicap looks heavy with the confidence Edinburgh will have received from their success but is passable.

Advice: 1 pt Perpignan -13 (10/11 general)

Glasgow (3/10) v Chiefs (5/2)

Glasgow were blown apart for 40 minutes at Toulon in the same way that Exeter took apart Cardiff Blues in the first 40 and while both sides were also outplayed for half the game, the circumstances were understandable, with Toulon being European champions at home and Exeter having 13 men for 10 minutes with the game safe. The Chiefs can present a serious challenge if their pack prdouces the same performance it did to win at Gloucester, but home advantage makes Glasgow worthy favourites and they can take a win by 1-12 points.

Advice: 1 pt Glasgow to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

Clermont (1/66) v Quins (66)

Clermont were stopped by a fearsome and determined Racing Metro defensive effort but dominated the game from start to finish and can make up for that infront of their own fans at the Stade Marcel Michelin, where they’re approaching 70 games unbeaten. Harlequins were deservedly beaten and totally outplayed by the Scarlets last week and unless they’ve improved significantly, don’t look like being able to live with Clermont’s intensity on any of the form thet’ve shown this season and they could struggle to keep afloat if Les Jaunards bring their best form to the table.

Advice: 3 pts Clermont -17 (10/11 general)