Edinburgh (10/3) v
Munster (3/10)
Edinburgh reached the
semi-finals of this competition in 2012 but have fallen so far from those great
heights and look vulnerable against a Munster side that has made an impressive start
to this season, with one of their victories a 34-26 home successes at Thomond
Park. Munster’s away successes have been tight so far this season but late
losses of concentration flattered those scored – Munster held a 16 point lead
here last year before Edinburgh scored two in as many minutes, and held an 18
point lead in the Thomond Park league encounter. If they keep their concentration
– there should be no reason for them to encounter any trouble here and a seven
point handicap looks generous.
Advice: 4 pts Munster -7 (4/5 Sportingbet)
Treviso (9/4) v
Montpellier (1/2)
Montpellier only lost to Toulon in the pool stages last year
and look to have the talent to negotiate a tricky trip to Zebre with which to
start their campaign. The Italians have already beaten Munster at the Communale
Di Treviso and gave both Leicester and Toulouse an extremely hard time there
last year, when they were just minutes away from beating the Tigers before a
penalty try put paid to their hopes. On both occasions they held the half time lead
- something they’ve done in four of their last 5 home games here, where they’ve
scored 72 points before half time and just 29 afterwards. Montpellier – who bring
a strong side for a tough test that can count Francois Trinh-Duc at flyhalf – haven’t
been bested in a second half in their last 7 games and were resolute on the
road last year in the tournament. The Treviso/Montpellier half time full time
result makes appeal given recent results and so does the second half handicap
of 3 points.
Advice: 1 pt Treviso/Montpellier (6/1 general), 1 pt
Montpellier -3 on second half handicap (10/11 general)
Castres (8/11) v Northampton
(6/4)
This is the fourth season in a row where these two rivals have
meet in the same pool and what’s beginning to become a bit of a rivalry is
likely to be a nailbiter. Last year Saints took a losing bonus point from the
Ernest Wallon last year and come here with not only a better form streak, but a
strong and more confident team which should be able to take a losing bonus
point at least. A first choice backline – including Ben Foden, Goerge North,
and the much improved Luther Burrell – should be given plenty of opportunity by
a pack that has yet to put a foot wrong so far. Castres are expected to bounce
back from their disappointing result against Brive and put forward a strong
home showing, but should they take the points it’s likely to be by a small margin.
Advice: 1 pt Northampton +4 (10/11 Coral)
Harlequins (1/5) v
Scarlets (6)
Harlequins have made a very poor start to their league
season and are hard to trust with a double figure handicap, even if against a Scarlets
side have Rob McCusker and Ken Owens out on the sidelines and have won only
twice this season. Last year they never got within 10 points of their rivals on
the road, but they were facing Clermont, Exeter and Leinster last year and
Quins have failed to reach 20 points in at least four of their five games. If
both sides click then a really entertaining game is on the cards but a lack of
the cutting edge that Quins are known for has been missing and unders on a high
points line is tempting, as is the 1-12 home win.
Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (13/8
Ladbrokes)
Gloucester (8/15) v Perpignan
(13/8)
Gloucester have made a most disappointing start to the
season and look vulnerable if they are as underpowered in their forward pack as
they were against Exeter when well beaten in what could have been a heavier
defeat. There’s been a pack reshuffle and the adding of lighting quick backs Johnny
May and Rob Cook to the side but standards have been consistently below last
season and Ben Morgan’s below par performances are hurting badly. Perpignan’s
terrible away form in Europe makes them hard to recommend on any levels, so
this might be one to avoid.
Advice: No bet.
Ospreys (evs) v Leinster
(11/10)
Arguably the game of the day, with the fierce rivalry
between Ospreys and Leinster making for a baptism of fire at this level for Matt
O’Connor in his first season, and a ton of scrutiny upon Jimmy Gopperth as his
flyhalf choice. Ospreys have continually had the advantage over Leinster in
recent years – notably when taking the 2012 Pro12 title with the Hollywood farewell
ending for Shane Williams in a 31-30 epic – winning their last three home games
against Leinster and having lost only three times in recent memory against the
Dubliners. Exceptionally strong at home in this competition, they’ve lost just
twice at the Liberty in their last 18 games – one being a draw against
Leicester – and come here today with a starting side that has four Lions in the
pack, Welsh flyhalf Dan Biggar, and exiting talents Eli Walker and Ashley Beck
to name a few. Back in September the Ospreys snatched a last minute draw at the
RDS facing much of the same Leinster squad that start today, but with a much underpowered
pack; They can take the points today.
Advice: 1 pt Ospreys to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)
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