El Clasico - Barcelona v Real Madrid (La Liga, Oct 26 2013)

The first of what’s likely to be many El Clasico’s kicks off tonight with Barcelona already in the driving seat for the La Liga title race over their city rivals. However with just three points separating the two enemies and La Liga weaker than ever – barring Atletico Madrid’s storming start to the season – this has the feel of a potential early title decider already.

What used to be a series of one sided routs has been changed into a nailbiter by Jose Mournihio’s arrival – despite the legendary 5-0 rout for his first Clasico in charge – but the Special One’s need for control of Madrid turned ugly last season and Carlo Ancelotti is now facing Gerardo Martino after several changes on the benches recently.

Both sides have made satisfactory starts to the season, with Real Madrid set to qualify easily in their Champions League group and sitting three points of the Catalans in third and Barcelona reaping the benefits of Neymar’s arrival from Santos, a transfer working out considerably better than Real Madrid’s ill thought out and expensive decision to break their – or the Spanish taxpayers if you wanted to look at it that way – bank for Gareth Bale looking more foolish by the week, especially given Angel Di Maria’s recent performances.

Given the persistent away day blues under Jose in his last season, Barcelona are pretty strong favourites with Paddy Power’s 4/5 a standout but there was a feeling that coming towards the end of his time at the Bernabeu that Jose had finally learned how to combat Barcelona and with only one home win in their last four Nou Camp El Clasicos the stats back that up, but Madrid have been laboured on the road so far and look to be badly missing Mesut Ozil’s intuitive playmaking and Gonazlo Higuain’s movement upfront despite the presence of Isco at the head of their midfield.

With Barcelona’s two most laboured performance of the season having come in their last two games there’s reason for some cautiousness with odds on quotes but they were both on the road and they’ve scored 18 goals at the Camp Nou in Spain alone in just four games. However on three of those occasions they let in a goal and with both sides having netted in 15 of the last 17 Clasicos, that option should form the basis of any bets taken on the match result today. Barcelona are 2/1 to win with both teams on the scoresheet while Madrid are 11/2 to do likewise – both more than fair prices even if dismissing the option of a 1-1.

Angel Di Maria has been in exceptional form of late

For a first, anytime, or more interestingly last, goalscorer option, look no further than Cristiano Ronaldo, who has notched on his last 6 visits here and had the last goalscoring laugh 4 times in La Liga and on Tuesday in the CL; Similar comments would have applied to Angel Di Maria had he started, but 6’s is interesting enough for someone who’s played some of the best football he’s produced since arriving at Madrid, and against potential tiring opposition or playing on the break is sure to be a huge help to him when he makes his appearance.

Advice

1 pt Barcelona to win & both teams to score (2/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Real Madrid to win and both teams to score (11/2 general)

Racing Post Trophy 2013

3.50 Doncaster

Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £149,714

Advice: 1 pt win Pinzolo (5/1 general)

Ante Post: 1 pt each/way Pinzolo, Derby (20/1 general)

Altruistic: Never troubled when making a winning debut at Naas in August and 2 length third in Beresford Stakes was a pleasing effort for a horse who, like many in this field, still has more to come; Needs to improve to make an impact here but worth his place.

Buonarroti: Like many from his stable, stepped up plenty on his debut when romping 1m1f Tipperary maiden having needed a lot longer than a mile on debut to get involved at Galway; Can f forward again but not sure that he’ll go on this ground and drop back in trip doesn’t look like it’s to his benefit.

Century: Green, behind early, but impressive winner of Curragh maiden when beating well liked runner up Marakoush at Curragh earlier this month, drawing right away at the line to win well; Surely likely to improve for that and notable that stable which has won this with once raced maiden winners for last two years (and seven times in total) sees fit to send him here (is pick of Joesph O’Brien); Needs to handle what’s likely to be deep ground.

Chief Barker: Keeps fighting and keeps finding late on in races, taking it to three in a row when landing Listed event at Haydock that was majorly boosted by runner up’s victory in Fillies’ Mile afterwards; Dangerous to take that form literally and needs to prove he’ll handle this surface.

 

Dolce N Karma: This is an extremely stiff question on second start since debut fourth in AW maiden.

Johann Strauss: Very promising debut in Newmarket maiden (two runners behind him have since been placed) followed but disappointing odds on failure at Naas dropped down in trip when he had clear aim, made heavy weather of getting to winner, and unable to pass; Says a lot for his reputation that he’s here less than a week afterwards and stepping back up in trip sure to help him (booking of Ryan Moore notable); Interesting runner.

Kingston Hill: Green but that didn’t stop him from being a ready winner of Newbury maiden and way he dismissed useful yardstick from Ballydoyle in Autumn Stakes probably the best form on offer today, so has to be respected; Will go on soft and greatly respected following Monday supplement.

Pinzolo: More comfortable winner than margin suggested over stablemate and subsequent eight length winner (third nosed out next time) at Newmarket, and can’t fail to be impressed with way he defied trouble in running to follow up at Newbury on soft surface (runner up since bolted in latest) latest to earn supplement for this; Should go very well here.

Snow Sky: Seemed a changed animal for the change in ground when destroying opposition at Salisbury on third attempt; Not impossible that he’ll have more to offer even if ground’s not quite as testing and supplementary entry also interesting for top connections. 

Somewhat: Game attitude in victory and defeat so far this season, edged out by Berkshire in Royal Lodge when trying mile for first time (narrowly beaten twice in Group 2’s); Can make a bold bid for it but this ground a completely new factor to throw in and feeling that he’s exposed.

The Grey Gatsby: Still green when well beaten by Outstrip in Champagne Stakes here, also looking as if he’d enjoy step up in trip, but ground this soft an unknown for him and also has a slightly exposed feel about him; Others preferred.

VERDICT: An extremely exciting renewal with so many promising contenders, including 3 supplementary entries and no less than 4 unbeaten records on the line. Kingston Hill’s favouritism is deserved after his Autumn Stakes win and few can argue with the promise of Century for a yard that has dominated this event in recent years but PINZOLO’S two wins show a variety of talents and he looks a serious prospect based on the form of an impressive success at Newmarket and a game win at Newbury. The pick for today, he merits a speculative Derby wager at 20/1 given the lack of names down as definites for an Epsom campaign next year.  Chief Barker and Somewhat deserve respect while Snow Sky’s supplementary entry is interesting.

Champions League 2013/14: Wednesday 23rd October

Anderlecht (8) v PSG (4/9)

PSG’s fine start to the season – they are yet to be beaten – continued with a fine win at Bastia which will be famous for possibly Zaltan Ibrahimovic’s best goal yet and they can bring qualification another step closer with a comfortable win in Belgium. Laurent Blanc’s men haven’t conceded a goal so far and have the forward power to put distance between them and the Belgians.

Advice: 3 pts PSG -1 (21/20 Bet365)

Leverkusen (23/20) v Shakhtar (14/5)

Bayer Leverkisen’s ‘ghost goal’ gave them a win at Hoffenheim that keeps them apace with Bayern and Dortmund but this will be a much harder test and Shaktar – unlucky not to beat Manchester United in the other mathchday – can give them a serious test. The loss of Fernandinhio and Mkhitaryan has hurt them badly in the attacking stakes but they still carry a threat and they can get on the scoresheet at least.

 Bayern Munich (1/10) v Plzen (14)

This should be as routine as possible for Bayern Munich, who troe apart Manchester City on the second matchday with ease in a performance that served note of their transition to Pep Guardiola’s possession based style. They should overwhelm Plzen.

Advice: 1 pt Bayern to score 4 or more (8/11 Sportingbet)

Benfica (4/5) v Olympiakos (17/4)

Benfica were blown away against PSG but should still harbour plenty of hopes about getting a spot in the last 16 and they can beat Olympiakos tonight. The Greeks were superb at Anderlcht and have won well since but Benfica’s home record is a fearsome one and a 2-1 win at Estoril is a fine preparation for this test.

Advice: 3 pts Benfica (4/5 general)

Galatasaray (4/7) v Copenhagen (11/2)

Copenhagen were very lucky to scrape a point against Juventus and while Galatasaray have also been recipients of that fortune, they were far more deserving of their point and they can put their extra class and home advantage to good use to take a win here.

Advice: 1 pt Galatasaray -1 (7/5 Bet365)

Manchester United (4/6) v Real Socidedad (21/4)

Manchester United’s domestic woes continued with a sucker punch from Southampton leading to them dropping points at home yet again and significant changes to the starting eleven – with Vidic and Ferdinand removed from the back 4 and Robin Van Persie left out – may not help their cause. Sociedad were excellent against Leverkusen and can push the hosts here, albeit that I’m reluctant to side with them after a shaky league start.

Real Madrid (7/10) v Juventus (9/2)

Real Madrid have scored 10 goals in their two wins but overwhelmed a vastly inferior Copenhagen side and had the benefit of picking off Galatasaray’s overeagerness on the opening matchday. Juventus, however, have struggled in the tournament’s early stages once again and look vulnerable here if in te same defensive shape. However, at odds on, they look best avoided.

Pakistan v South Africa - 2nd Test

South Africa’s 15 test unbeaten run came to an end at the hands of Pakistan in the UAE and one of the most progressive sides on the circuit should not be outsiders to take the spoils when the two sides meet for the second time from the early hours today.

South Africa are a fearsome unit at their best and came into this with a deserved reputation as the world’s best test team to supplement their number 1 ranking. However they had not played an official test for some 5 months and came into that game with only one warm-up under their belt, which proved more than inadequate as a Pakistan side back on a ground fast becoming their fortress following an embarrassing defeat to Zimbabwe where balance and desire was a huge problem.

Pakistan have won three of their four tests here and didn’t even need 5 days to beat a South Africa side that were caught woefully short on preparedness. With Hashim Amla flying home for the birth of his child and Dale Steyn likely to be absent, Graeme Smith, Alviro Petersen Jacques Kallis, and Faf Du Plesssis will have to raise a better effort than the pitiful 81 runs they scored between them and the lack of spin form in the Proteas – only Robin Peterson is really able to lead the line for them in that regard and he took no wickets last week – compounds the belief that Pakistan, with Saeeed Ajmal and Zulfigar Babar both likely to play a key role once again.

Advice

1 pt Pakistan (27/10 Bet Victor)

Champions League 2013/14: Tuesday 22nd October 2013

AC Milan (11/2) v Barcelona (3/5) 

Barcelona have won only 2 of their previous 7 visits to AC Milan but they’ve faced better or more in form units than the team that squeezed past Udinese on Saturday and they should be able to take all three points. The Catalans dropped points at Osasuna but that was the first time that’s happened this season and with Milan likely to have few, if any opportunities to make an impact, they’re the bet. Back them to win by 1. 

Advice: 1 pt Barcelona to win by 1 goal (14/5 Ladbrokes) 

Austria Vienna (10) v Atl Madrid (4/11)

Atleico’s domestic train came off the tracks just a little when Espanyol beat them on Sunday but that could be just a blip and they look well capable of bouncing back to beat Australia Vienna and make it three from three in the group. Vienna haven’t scored in their two matches so far and have won half their league games by one goal, so the 1-0, win to nil, and one goal winning options all make appeal, with a dutch of the 1 and 2-0 scores possibly the best value. 

Advice: 1 pt 1 and 2-0 Atletico Madrid (7/1 Ladbrokes, 6/1 general) 

Celtic (31/20) v Ajax (7/4) 

Celtic have struggled to impose themselves upon domestic proceedings this season, following a spate of losses in the transfer markets over the summer, and despite manful efforts against Milan (where they were unlucky to conceded two late goals) and Barcelona (where they once again) they make no appeal to beat Ajax, who have struggled badly in recent seasons of the Champions League. At Parkhead they look vulnerable, but neither team makes a whole lot of appeal. Cletic’s last seven European games have been under 2.5 goals and that might be the way to go. 

Advice: 1 pt under 2.5 goals (5/6 general) 

Marselllie (9/4) v Napoli (29/20)

Napoli’s recent European record is notoriously poor but they’ve faced some of the world’s best club sides and they can take all three points from France. Rafa Bentiez’s side have won just two of their last 13 on the road in Europe but played far better than a 2-0 scoreline suggests at unbeaten Roma and have the quality to take a success from a Marsellie side who have lost 11 of their last 22 home matches in the competition proper and been beaten by Monaco and Paris St Germain in Ligue 1, sides comparable to the first XI that Napoli are likely to put out tonight. 

Advice: 4 pts Napoli (29/20 Bet Victor) 

Porto (4/6) v Zenit (11/2)

Zenit’a 2-0 win against CSKA Moscow at the weekend was their best performance of the season and deserves serious credit, although it remains to be seen just how they cope with the intense home atmosphere that Porto will provide. The Portuguese champions were beaten by Atletico Madrid here but that was a tight contest and they can edge this encounter. 

Advice: 1 pt Porto to win by 1 goal (13/5 Ladbrokes) 

Schalke (23/10) v Chelsea (13/10)

Chelsea were dismal in their opening matchday defeat to Basel but have won 5 of their 6 games since and were unlucky not to take all the points from their trip to Tottenham in their only failure to take all three points. Schalke have gotten themselves together after a chaotic star to the season but their defensive woes haven’t gone away with 19 conceded in the league so far and their current plague of injuries – including Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Kevin Prince boating, and Jefferson Farfan makes it hard to be enthusiastic about their prospects. Chelsea can take all three points in a high scoring game. 

Advice: 2 pts Chelsea (7/5 Coral), 1 pt over 2.5 goals (8/11 general) 

Steaua (15/8) v Basel (8/5)

Basel’s loss to Schalke back in Switzerland felt tame and disappointing but they’re good enough to take all the points against a Steaua side that’s yet to score in this year’s competition, following 3 and 4-0 defeats against Schalke and Chelsea respectively. Basel were in no way flattered by their opening win at Chelsea and are given a generous chance by bookmakers here in an eminently winnable game. 

Advice: 1 pt Basel (8/5 general)