Premiership - Chelsea v Liverpool

The saying is that records are there to be broken and few in football stand taller than Jose Mouriniho’s unbeaten streak at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, but they must all come to an end at sometime and Liverpool are capable of underlying their title credentials for the second time in a week and taking all three points from Stamford Bridge today.

Chelsea, with Jose Mourinhio at the helm following his return from Real Madrid, were many’s bet for the title following the departure of Sir Alex Feguson from Manchester United and during the first half of the season most things have gone to plan – they are within striking distance of the top of the table and through to the last 16 of the Champions League with the calendar year gone – but the results have been the only thing coming in the last few weeks.

The Blues have dropped just the two points at Stamford Bridge this season but have been playing below par for a long time and haven’t impressed in December, being deservedly beaten by Stoke and struggling to get past Steaua in their last Champions League game before being outplayed for long periods by a resurgent Crystal Palace here. A similarly poor display at Sunderland in extra time of the League Cup (a game they had for the tasking) along with a failure to put away Swansea (despite making many chances in their most convincing display for a month) put significant doubts over a home price of just 5/4.

The Blues did got to the Emirates and completely shut down Arsenal – something this Liverpool side failed to do – in a game that really wasn’t one for the thriller stakes – although even then they lacked the attacking fluency that a side boasting so many attacking midfielders should do and the lack of a real firing striker has the potential to become a serious problem if not addressed in January.

Liverpool were widely written off regarding honours with Luis Suarez at one point set to leave and then being suspended for eight games but Brendan Rodgers’ young side have really improved this season and following a shaky patch in September have been one of the most impressive teams in the league with the absent Daniel Sturridge partnering with Luis Suarez to wreak havoc. The Reds have won just one of their last 5 on the road but were exceptional in dismantling Tottenham and can feel unlucky not to have taken a point away from Manchester City, starting and ending the game much the stronger of the two sides and giving City their hardest test at that point this season.

A slightly below par performance from a changed side against Crystal Palace yesterday gives a slight worry regarding how Rodgers’s men will deal with two tough games in 2 days, but they have the players in Henderson, Sterling, Coutiniho and main man Luis Suarez to cause Chelslea a litany of problems and if showing their best, are well overpriced at 13/5. In the eventuality that Jose decides to take the extremely conservative approach, as he has done on the road, take the 8/11 with Sportingbet that the Redmen cen return with a point.

Advice

1 pt Liverpool (5/2 general, 13/5 Youwin)

2 pts Liverpool-Draw (8/11 Sportingbet)

 

Today's Racing - 29th December 2013

Nicky Henderson might have had a nightmare after Christmas with Sprinter Sacre’s unfortunate health troubles in the Desert Orchid but yesterday couldn’t have been more perfect with Captain Cutter headlining a treble at Newbury while Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth was right back to his best with a swift late charge to land the Lexus at Leopardstown, putting his Haydock comeback firmly in the distance on a red letter day for the yard.

Oscar Hoof may not be quite as exciting a prospect for those teams in Doncaster's novice hurdle (1.45) but he himself looked pretty useful when landing 2 bumpers last year and made an excellent start to life hurdling when second in a Listed hurdle at Haydock on his comeback behind previous winner Zamdy Man with two useful winners behind him that day. He was obviously receiving a large amount of weight from all invovlved, but with the improvement forecoming on the fitness and potentially jumping front he’s a formidable opponent for all to take on today. Emma Lavelle’s Sawallowshide made a big impression when romping away with his hurdles debut when upped in trip for the first time but the 7lbs weight concession that she has to offer is firmly in favour of the Henderson charge while Lemony Bay’s good second to Mijhaar makes him a solid each/way and place contender; There isn’t much going for the rest from a form perspective even if some have big room for improvement.

Advice

3 pts win Oscar Hoof, 1.45 Doncaster (10/11 general)

Ryanair Hurdle 2013

2.00 Leopardstown

Ryanair Hurdle (grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €59,999

Advice: 1 pt win Jezki (11/4 general)

Captain Cee Bee: Honourable and high class hurdler/chaser, winner of Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2008 and then switched codes with distinction afterwards; Has been on the go for a long time and age seems to have caught up with him judged on latest efforts.

Hurricane Fly: The outstanding 2 miler for the last 3 seasons; his only blip in 2011 Champion Hurdle but won two renewals in fine style outside of that and proven near unbeatable in Ireland, racking up 15 Grade 1 wins on Irish soil; As good as ever when landing second Champion Hurdle success and following up at Punchestown although he was less than impressive on return for second season running latest; The one to beat in no uncertain terms but faces two top young quality rivals aiming at his crown and biggest non festival task for years on his plate.

Jezki: Beaten just once in 8 hurdling starts, and that behind Christmas Hurdle winner My Tent or Yours and Champagne Fever on first run of the calendar year; Emphatic winner at Punchestown festival afterwards and came forward from return at Down Royal before stretching himself to land Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time out, where he may have underwhelmed some but was never in danger; Back at 2m, can make a serious bid for tiltle credentials.

Thousand Stars: Often been behind Hurricane Fly and no different on last Irish run, when second at Punchestown following yet another strong effort in Aintree Hurdle; Not at best in France twice afterwards and this first run, so not expected to get any closer today.

Our Conor: Fast improving over flat but even that couldn’t have pointed towards brilliant hurdle campaign when he won four from four with ease, although nothing could have compared to his obliteration of Triumph Hurdle field at Cheltenham where he won by 15 lengths on the bridle; Not sure that race as strong as either of his other two competitions but huge talent nonetheless; One run since a pleasing enough comeback on flat over 1m4f 70 days ago so should be primed for this.

VERDICT: The second of two showstopping Champion Hurdle trials and arguably the race of the season on it’s own. Hurricane Fly has been the undisputed champion in this sphere for the last 2 seasons but faces his toughest task on home solid for a long time and will need to be on top form to beat young guns Our Conor and JEZKI, with preference for the latter to make it 8 wins from 9 starts over hurdles.

 

Topaz Novice Chase 2013

3.05 Leopardstown

Topaz Novice Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €48,750

Advice: 3 pts win Morning Assembly (11/8 general)

Bright New Dawn: Very smart as a hurdler, third behind Jezki here this time last year before runner up in Deloitte behind Champagne Fever and then impressive Grade 2 winner; Amiss in March but jumped soundly in the main and found plenty to win beginners’ chase on seasonal debut; Can go well.

Carlingford Lough: Has been improving rapidly in handicap ranks but took step up to graded company in his stride when second in the Drinmore Chase latest, that following Kerry National second; Step up in trip and softer ground should be to his advantage once again and can put up a bold show.

Mad Brian: Only the three runs over fences but only try at this trip bought most improved performance when second in Troytown handicap chase last time out; Softer ground is a plus for him but does look a tad short of Grade 1 standard.

Morning Assembly: Looked to be on the retreat when falling in the Grade 2 in which Bright New Dawn was second last year but first and only run at 3 miles bought about comprehensive Grade 1 win at Punchestown Festival; Has taken to fences with aplomb based on win in strong contest on debut over 2m4f and then when finding more to get the better of Drinmore Chase winner Don Cossack in 4 runner Punchestown Grade 2 latest (2m6f); Softer ground and step back upto 3 miles looks set to suit him and is the one to beat on that evidence.

My Murphy: Progressive second season novice who improved with increase in trip at the turn of the year and was going well when falling in decent novice handicap; Flat next twice but back to this trip and ground, a good winner latest; This a different task altogether however.

Foxrock: Commendable efforts over hurdles when he broke his maiden over this trip and in two starts chasing where he’s fenced well in the main but these aren’t close to the standard he faces today.

Sizing Rio: Respectable efforts over hurdles for chaser in waiting who may have disappointed in Drinmore after good pair of wins to kickstart chasing career; Upping in trip and return to soft ground should see a different performance from him although he needs to find significant improvement to get involved. 

VERDICT: A competitive event to round out a fantastic week’s racing. MORNING ASSEMBLY’s two chase wins are arguably the strongest form over fences here and he has room to improve going back upto 3 miles for the first time since his Grade 1 win over hurdles. He can beat Bright New Dawn and the improving Carlingford Lough.

 

Pro12 - Leinster v Ulster

Christmas may have been three days ago but Ulster fans might get the best late Christmas present with a win over fierce rivals Leinster today. Mark Anscombe’s men set a hot pace over the first 13 games of last season before injuries took their toll and a young first side seems to have come forward yet again based on this season’s evidence and have steadily improved based on some exceptional form in Europe, including a 25-8 win at Montpellier (no mean feat facing a full side in the competition) amongst their seasonal highlights.

The Ulstermen were unimpressive when beating Zebre at Ravenhill following a deeply impressive pair of Heineken Cup wins against Treviso but Anscombe’s nine changes and three positional changes should freshen the side up and centres Darren Cave and Luke Marshall should enjoy running at Leinster’s second choice 12/13 axis while the return of Andrew Trimble and Paddy Jackson should also add plenty of impetus to their backline. Leinster gave a test level performance when thumping Northampton at Saints gardens and were vulnerable to the turnaround but 9 of the same team that were beaten at Edinburgh turnout again and this should be far more even than the odds on prices for the home side suggest. Ulster became the only province to beat Leinster at the RDS since the 2012 when taking the win here last season and could have won all three contests if they had shown more discipline in the final which they nominated to be there as top seeds and on this seasons form they are more than capable of covering a 6 point handicap with Coral.

Advice

2 pts Ulster +6 (10/11 Coral)