Dubai World Cup Carnival 2012 - Week 4

1 pt win The Reaper, 2.45 (4/1 Ladbrokes)

A competitive handicap to start proceedings and The Reaper may be the answer. A consistent charge, Gerald Lyons’s 4yo seemed to be a nearly horse last season, running well but never actually threatening to win. This might not have augured so well for his UAE debut 2 weeks ago but he ran a really solid race to come third behind Addictive Dream and Internationaldebut. Paul Midgely’s charge should be hard to pass but he had a run under his belt before then and is now also drawn out into stall 11 – he was in 5 previously – but The Reaper has a draw that’s just about acceptable in 8, only one wider than his reappearance two weeks ago.

Ariete Arrollador is the one to beat from stall 4, while he also has a tremendously consistent record and should improve plenty for his debut behind Barbecue Eddie over 7f here last time. Little can be found to fault him, while Terio Bloom is interesting if coping with his poor draw.

2 pts win African Story, 3.20 (13/8 Ladbrokes) 

Barbecue Eddie is sure to be popular in his bid to follow up his reappearance win – which is fancied to be boosted strongly by many in the first race – but just as much, if not more appeal lies with Godolphin’s French import African Story, who pushed none other than the top class sprinter Moonllight Cloud all the way in the Prix De Porte Malliot. He was third on his next start in what could be described as heavy ground, and the second as a previous Listed/Group 3 winner who went onto come a close fourth in the Prix L’Opera on Arc weekend, and the winner himself had a listed success to his name.

As De Trebol set a remarkable pace here last time so to finish as close as he did was a great effort, and with fitness surely coming, he has a lot of appeal here, although one can’t help but think that he’d be of slightly more interest dropped down in trip to 6 furlongs.  Captain Ramius and Escape Route should find this much more to their liking than their previous assignments, even if both were rather disappointing.

4 pts win Musir, 5.15 (11/8 Hills & Bet365)

It’s great to see Luca Cumani’s Presvis, winner of the Dubai Duty Free last year, back here again and he’s got to be hard to beat although he faces one hell of a task in trying to beat Musir if Mike De Kock’s charge turns up in the same form that he did when cantering all over his rivals in Round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, even in receipt of 3lbs.

Mike De Kock’s charge was strangely not favourite for the that event, having been second in the betting behind Mendip, but he’d always had plenty of speed – After the Dubai world cup, he was third in the Champions Mile at Sha Tin, before then occupying the same position in the Hungerford Stakes behind the top class Excelebration, and winning easily in Germany – and the way he came away from decent rivals on the bridle suggests that Presvis will have his work cut out for him today.

Luca Cumani’s charge gained a hugely deserved win in the Dubai Duty Free last year following on from his easy win in this very event – coming third in a better race inbetween – and rates the biggest danger to the selection and surely the established form choice.

Rajasman has form that would entitle him to be right there for this event – especially his Group 1 2in in France and his third in the Prix Du Moulin – and might be a solid each/way option at 13/2 for those who don’t want to take a short price on either of the top two. My vote is firmly cast towards Musir.