Dubai Carnival 2011 - Week 1

In the midst of all the cracking jumping action taking place over the past few weeks, it’s almost been forgotten that another Dubai Carnival is upon us. A now recognised fixture in the general season, it’s great to have it back for those days when jumping doesn’t quite do it for the dual code lovers.

It will get the coverage it deserves when I have the time, but for now I direct you to the efforts of the ever reliable Dan Munn to start your carnival reading, at least before the Racing Post pullout extravganza tomorrow. Until then, here are the three most fancied horses on Day 1 of the carnival.

 

1 pt win Modern History, 2.30

 A tight little event to start with where the vote goes to Modern History, one of the many French imports that Godolphin have acquired over the winter break. Fourth on his one and only run as a 2 year old, he beat the useful Glaswegian in a conditions race at Longchamp on his re-appearance, before taking a Listed contest at Toulouse, beating the smart Etive by three-quarters of a length.

Things didn’t go right for him after that when stepped up in class but he had little chance from his draw in the French Guineas, while it’s presumed that he wasn’t at peak form for his next assignment (the Prix Paul Du Moussac) when he faded badly late on despite having made good headway to be fourth late on.

Fitness has to be taken on trust for his first run in the UAE, but Mahmood Al Zarooni has developed a good record with runners from other stables and if he can get the best out of Modern History, he stands a good chance of getting the Carnival of to a flyer.

Modern History at least makes more appeal than Capponi (despite the choice of Frankie Dettori), who was wofefully out of form when seen the last twice, and Sarrsar, who wouldn’t be suited by a slow early gallop. This is a career high mark for Marching Time, a step up in class for Secretive (despite his win here last time), and Glen Nevis’s erratic form makes him hard to trust despite the fact that Royston Ffrench and Ali Rashid Al Raihe have been in outstanding form since the Dubai season opened in November, which leaves just Karl Barg of the rest, who didn’t shape as if he looked a winner in waiting when last seen (that having come after a reappearance run which should have left him much sharper).

1 pt win Start Right, 5.00 (3/1 Ladbrokes)

Last year wasn’t an easy one for supporters of Star Right but it only spurred the belief that he was a horse to follow and I’m not giving up on him now in Godolphin colours for the first time. Marked down as one to note when he was fourth in his bid for a hat trick last season, he’s been luckless ever since – especially when sixth in the Hunt Cup and second in the Coral Challenge when last since.

Canwinn can’t be discounted – he was barely off the bridle to win his second race of the season and may have more in hand than the 3lbs turnaround that Tamaathul now gets, while Famous Warrior can also improve on that run with his fitness sure to be improved for that.

City Style could also go well here but he might well need this too much to be winning, and the same could be said of three time South American Group 1 winner and potential handicap blot Anerobio, who won 5 of his 10 starts in Argentina and is the first runner of the campaign for the powerful Mike De Kock yard. Quick Wit should resume his progression at sometime during the campaign but today his stablemate is preferred.

3 pts win Mahbooba, 5.35

Last year's UAE 1,000Guineas heroine Mahbooba who was also second in the UAE Oaks and third in the UAE Derby, can start another successful campaign with victory here. An impressive winner after an encouraging UAE debut. She was beaten twice by Kawlah at the end of the season but that filly was top class and her solid efforts since, including a 6 length win at Newmarket in the summer before a close enough fourth in the EP Taylor Stakes. She sets a high standard on her best form and could prove very tough to beat.

Her main rival would appear to be Derbaas, who completed a brilliant four-timer at last year's Carnival before finishing last in the Dubai Duty Free. He should go well here, while St Moritz is an interested contender for the front with an easy lead. An interesting contender is Laajooj, who was hampered when sixth in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot.