2 pts win Captain Sunshine, 1.40 Kempton (evs General)
Emma Lavelle has a lot of good young hurdlers in her stable –
Indeed stable jockey Jack Doyle is actually away at Warwick to ride the
unbeaten Highland Lodge in a Grade 2 – and Captain Sunshine could make up into
one of the best of them given how well he’s shaped on his two starts.
One the first of those occasions, he ran on late having
looked set to be left behind in the DBS Spring Sales Bumper at Doncaster, but
stayed on really well to take third place behind Montbazon and Close House.
David Pipe’s charge has since come second and then won, while the winner is now
going for the Supreme Novices’ hurdle following three promising runs, one over
hurdles. Fourth Maqnifique Eotile went onto win three novice hurdles by more
than 10 lengths and was a respectable third in the Tolowrth just a week ago.
Stepped up to 2m4f at Taunton last month, he shaped very
well once again when making steady ground throughought the race before posing a
massive threat in the home straight having been pushed along throughought, and he
should have won with more distance to make his challenge.
One of his main rivals, Hit The Headlines, has to give 6lbs
in weight and has had the form of his maiden hurdle win really taken down a
notch or two since, while No Substitute and King’s Sunset have a bit to prove.
1 pt each/way Act Of Kalanisi, 2.50 Kempton (10/1 VCBet)
Dr Richard Newland has already saddled 18 winners and has a
good chance of landing his biggest result in 2 years since Overstrand won a
£50,000 handicap hurdle at Ascot with Act Of Kalanisi in the Lanzarote Hurdle.
A winner on his debut at Newbury, he went onto finish
unplaced twice in Grade 1 company but struck when it really mattered in a 2m4f
handicap hurdle at Ascot off a mark of 130. A pipe opener in the Elite Hurdle
at Wincanton set him up for a crack at the Ladbroke Hurdle, where he came sixth
over a trip which could arguably be short of his best – he did win over 2m4f on
soft ground – and with Barry Geragthy on board, he could run a big race here,
with only 6 hurdles runs under his belt.
1 pt each/way Sinwcombe Flame, 2.50 Kempton (8/1 VCBet)
Of the rest, Nick William’s Swincombe Flame is added to the
prortfolio. The 5 year old mare made it three from four when landing a novice
event at the beginning of December, following a good reappearance in a strong
race at the track, and the way she followed up under a penalty on Boxing Day
suggests she could still have yet more to give here. The fact that she gets in off just 10-9 is a
big plus as well and she could be tough to throw out of the frame.
The well fancied pair of Decoy and Featherbed Lane have
their chances although Phillip Hobbs’s charge - by virtue of his subsequent easy
win at Aintree through heavy ground – is now 17lbs worse off with David Pipe’s
Cheltenham winner, although the form of his own win has since taken plenty of
knocks. Both have their chances but others are preferred.
Ohio Gold looks to have been readied at a handicap tilt and
two easy wins should have set him up perfectly for this, and to be fair, he
looks pretty hard to fault. Well Regarded, Lighting Strike and Domatiline are
just three that could take a hand, although Eastlake would be one to keep an eye
on – The form of his handicap debut at Chepstow has worked out in no uncertain terms.
Of the big priced outsiders, Busker Royal (closely weighted
with Act Of Kalanisi on their last meeting) and Radjhani Express (now tongue
tied) – make most appeal.
1 pt win Requin, 3.20 Kempton (5/1 general, 11/2 Skybet)
In a competitive event, Victor Dartnall’s Requin can get
back to winning ways here, having been running a big race before falling two
out at Ascot nearly a month ago. Stepped upto 3 miles that day, he was going
more than well enough before stamina began to tell on him (possibly with a lack
of fitness as well) and he was still third and fairly clear of the chasing pack
when going down, which suggests the form can be taken well enough.
His record before that had been one of improvement, with a
four and a half length second to As De Fer reading well before his clear cut
win at Chepstow having been boosted since by the second and third home, who
have won their next three starts between them.
What’s interesting is that most of his improvement had come
on a decent surface (his two wins have come on ground described as good) – and
with that in mind, the better ground today than at Ascot really should help
him.
Quotica De Poyans is evidently better than he’s been able to
show so far and he should still be respected, with the added caveat that he has
a slight question mark now, which brings Soixiante right into the equation. A
course winner over this distance nearly two years ago, he’s on the same mark
which should see him right there, but he was beaten 8 lengths by Coup Royale,
who has failed to complete since (a wind problem has been hinted at). A horse
that the Vic Page has followed ever since, he needs watching in the market
under Brendan Powell, who takes 5lbs off.
1 pt each/way Neptune Equester, 3.40 Warwick (7/1 Paddy Power)
The Classic Chase at Warwick nearly always turns into a
grind and it’s hard to nominate few better choices than Neptune Equester for
such a task. Brian Ellison’s 9 year old is very unexposed for a staying
handicapper and while only fifth in the Rowlyand Meyick last time, he had valid
excuses for said failure.
That contest was
slowly run for such a race and also run on very tacky ground (described as soft
on the day), while it’s known that this horse enjoys a test and his 5 wins have
all come on ground with good in the description. The ground’s currently good to soft for
tomorrow while the fact he’s won over 3m4f is also a major plus, and he should
go well here.
David Pipe’s Sona Sasta should be taken seriously, as he has
shown signs of getting back to the form which saw him land an easy double
before disappointing at the Cheltenham Festival last year. The winner of his
seasonal debut (Le Beau Bai) went onto win the Welsh National, and while some
could see his effort in the Paddy Power Chase in Ireland as disappointing, that
was a really competitive event.
The same stable’s Faasel merits serious consideration based
on his second in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and also at the Cheltenham
Festival, with the ground having come right for him (he likes it on the quicker
side). Despite having a good record fresh, he’s not won on his seasonal debut.
The remarkable record of Alan King in this event – he’s
trained the last two winners of this – means that Blazing Bailey, who has now
dropped to a more than workable mark. The only problem with this would be that no
winner in 20 years has come via the Welsh National, which is a massive stat to
overcome.
Strongbows Legend looked like a horse to follow when running
out a wide margin winner at Hereford in December and while this is a tougher
task for him he’s got to be respected.
No comments:
Post a Comment