Dubai World Cup Carnival 2012 - Week 2

1 pt win Red Gulch, 3.05 (3/1 Bet365)

A fairly strong opener which brings a lot of promising Tapeta first timers together. Godolphin recuit Red Gulch, one of many presumably brought with the sole purpose of running in the Carnival, may well be an ideal place to start.

One of the flag bearers for new trainer Ed Walker last season, he proved ultra - competitive in good handicaps last season, rising 17lbs in the weights before winning the Prix du Ranelagh at Longchamp over a mile.

A horse with plenty of experience of all-weather surfaces, the tapeta track should prove no difficulty and if running to his best he’s got a solid shot of kicking the day off with key another Godolphin winner.

The main threat is probably Captain Ramius, who holds Lowther and Reem on his improved effort in a strong Newmarket handicap when last seen, would rate the main threat. His draw of 7 is perfect, he’s tactically versatile and as a triple synthetics winner, will handle Tapeta.

There are plenty of others in what should be a really competitive event although the really poor record of horses drawn 9 and above over this trip (it’s 9-159, a strike rate of just 6%) is a big put off to the chances of Swop and Reem, both of whom can have good cases made for them on paper if that’s not a huge problem. The main threat would have to be Dough Watson’s Barbecue Eddie, especially if allowed to do his own thing out infront (he broke slowly last time but is dawn well today) and anything like an easy lead would spell danger for the rest of the field.

2 pts win, 1 pt each/way Green Beret, 3.45 (8/1 Bet365) 

Addicitve Dream than showed improved form on his UAE debut and first run for David Nicholls here last week and shouldn’t necessarily be hindered by the step up to 6f, but he is 5lbs worse off with Green Beret,  who’s proven extremely progressive in just over a year and posted a good effort when coming fifth, beaten 3 & ½ lengths behind Dandy Nicholl’s charge when the two last met.

Ali Rashid Al Raihe’s charge does have a win over this distance but shaped as if he’ll be best over 6 furlongs (all of his improvement has come at this trip) and that, combined with his 5lbs turnaround, may well see him turnaround the placings, if at least not just running him a whole lot closer. ]

Internationaldebut, so unlucky in the key form race which links the slection and main danger, should also play a big part over a trip that will suit (despite having wins over the trip, he’s shaped as if he’d improve for the trip of 6f), while Bohemian Meldody looked like a real horse to follow when fairly bolting up at Doncaster last time. If he can handle a 11lbs rise then he’s got to have every chance of taking a big hand.

Sir Reginald would be interesting but a wide draw and long absence thanks to injury (slight case of tendonitis according to Richard Fahey) takes away some of the appeal, and while the Reaper is consistent, this is a steep step up in class for him.

3 pts win Musir, 5.35 (7/2 Ladbrokes), 2 pts w/o Fav (13/8 Ladbrokes)

The best race of the year and it may go to Musir, who didn’t win at last year’s carnival but not through a lack of effort. Having previously won the UAE 2000 Guineas/Derby, he was actually ahead of favourite Mendip when winning the latter event,  before then bumping into Skysurfers, Twice Over and finding the farcial pace of the Dubai World Cup against him.

Mendip is favourite for today’s event, presumably based on the fact that he’s got great form over a mile (deeply impressive when landing last year’s renewal of this for a start) but there’s nothing to suggest that Musir lacks for speed. After the Dubai world cup, he was third in the Champions Mile at Sha Tin, before then occupying the same position in the Hungerford Stakes behind the top class Excelebration. He was always going to win the Topaki Trophy but still impressed and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be favourite here at all.

Master Of Hounds is a fascinating contender on his first run for Mike De Kock. Progressive with racing for Aidan O’Brien,  he ran an eyecatching race in the Kentucky Derby having previously only just failed to win the UAE Derby last year, getting run down in the drive to the line with Kawlah in the shadow of the post. His one run since in the Belmont can be put down to a sloppy track, and it’s fascinating to see him back. The one caveat to all this is the fact that he’s reappearing over a trop that might be considered a little short for him.

Champion South American horse Xin Xu Lin (the Brazilian horse of year in 2010/11 with wins in their Guineas/Derby before landing Argentina's prestigious Gran Premio Carlos Pellagrini, which is their equivalent of the Arc) is interesting, as he’s entitled to improve for this initial experience of the Carnival, but he got an easy lead that day and this is yet harder still. The trip will suit Fannulter (who holds a big chance on his best form), while Dance and Dance also catches the eye, for all that he looked exposed when not meeting trouble in running for the first time at Keenland.

1 pt each/way Hunting Tower, 6.15 (8/1 Hills)

Group 3 second Alkimos is sure to prove mighty hard to beat and in all likeliness should win but don’t be surprised to see the veteran Hunting Tower put up a bold show. Mike De Kock’s 10 year old had an awful first season here but showed steady improvement in 2011, improving from his fifteenth and seventh places to go on and finish fourth before taking his own race off 105 on his fourth run of the Carnival.

The reason for including him in the portfolio is basically the fact that he looks far more forward based on his encouraging reappearance over 7f, a trip which was far too short for Mike De Kock’s charge.

Held up, he was never going to make any inroads and he gave the rest of the field too much of a headstart but the late progress he made was encouraging and it would be no surprise to see him place here based on improvement for the trip and that run. The only concern anyone could have his would be his wide draw but even then the stats over this course are very fair – stalls 1-4 have a strike rate of 7% (6-83), 5-8 9% (7-80), and 9-14 (8-93) – and all things said, the price of 8’s with Hills looks very big indeed.