Murphy Group Chase 2012

2.05 Cheltenham

Murphy Group Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £22,780

Advice: 1 pt The Giant Bolster w/o Aerial (3/1 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Poquelin (8/1 general)

Poquelin: Consistent as ever last season although he didn’t live up to tag of favouritism in Ryanair Chase for second season running (albeit his efforts beforehand justifying that favouritism); Ran a disappointing race when fifth and well beaten in the Charlie Hall Chase but much more like it when running a respectable race here last time, looking as if he could get a place when he unseating three out; No reason why he can’t do the same again here.

Woolcombe Folly: Well beaten second to Gauvain looks a little better than it did at the time, for all that he’s still not quite lived upto the promise shown by his two impressive handicap wins over 2m a year ago (one on this card); Dropped a little in the weights but still has a lot to prove.

Tartak: Won valuable handicap a year ago but since struggled (best placed finish is fourth) and needs to find improvement on this year’s form, and has supposedly had two wind ops this season; Needs a drop in the weights.

Aerial: Made a mockery of handicap mark of 126 when romping home at Wincanton before getting turned over in novice chase at Ascot; Showed benefit of wind operation when solid fourth in Paddy Power Gold Cup and clear cut winner of Ascot Graduation Chase; Should take the beating here.

Hell’s Bay: Won the Grade 2 novice chase on this card last year (form worked out well since) and first run of this season since then when pulled up at Ascot behind Aerial; Probably not right on that occasion but even harder to back after his poor run latest despite shaping well for a fair way (right there until push seriously came to shove).

Tamrinbleu: Been in very good form since absence (not out of the first two), finishing close second on debut before solid efforts on heavy ground; Has enough wins on this less testing surface to think that he might even enjoy this surface more, for all this is a step up in class.

Chance Du Roy: Excellent reurn over fences when winning at Newbury and excellent effort on much worse ground when clear second best to Quincy Des Pictons at Chepstow; This a tougher race but being back on his favoured good ground he’s not ruled out.

The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when winning on this card last year in corresponding novice event; Shaped well this season and has strong possibilities granted a clear round of jumping here, so high on the shortlist.

Aradalur: Seemed set for big things when winning Grade 2 over hurdles in 2008 and bounced back from injury in good style over hurdles last season; Not helped by being hampered on return this season but midfield finish in Paddy Power suggests others are better options.

Billie Magern: As game as they come, competing a 4 timer in weak novice events last year but holding his head high when pitched into better company; Won well on his seasonal return here but struggled in better company since.

VERDICT: Aerial’s progression this season makes him fully deserving of favouritism but THE GIANT BOLSTER has just as much scope for a big run off his current mark (gets 7lbs from the favourite) and is slightly preferred, although for betting purposes, taking a price without the favourite is advised. Next best is POQUELIN, who was running a sound race when unseating at the third last in the Paddy Power and has the useful Harry Derham on board to take off 7lbs. He’s only 5lbs higher than when winning the December Gold Cup and on that evidence is worth a play here.