1.25 Leopardstown
Baily Green: Nine length winner of maiden hurdle in March,
then readily held next time in much better company; Yet to win a chase in four
starts over fences and has 15 lengths to make up on Blackstairmountain on
latest running, so passed over.
Blackstairmountain: Showed eminent promise over hurdles as a
novice, winning Grade 1 novice hurdle with plenty in hand; Never got back to
that level last year but showed enough to still be ranked as a useful horse,
and took to fences extremely well first time out when never off the bridle; Impressed
with attitude when catching Notus De La Tour latest and holds 4 of his rivals
here on that form, so the one to beat.
Flemenstar: One of the most promising novice chasers seen
this season, unable to cope with Bog Warrior on debut before cantering home
next time out at Navan; Hard to work very hard for his win at Naas last time
out but did it well and should make a bold bid here; Recent rain will help his cause.
Foildubh: Continued progressive form since last season (won
at Cork and Tramore) with three solid efforts over fences; Split third in Grade
2 and 1 company (both efforts see him held) with clear cut win at Navan over
fences but still seems fairly well held by that.
Gift Of Dgab: Gone backwards since Febuary maiden hurdle win
(held in better company) and most of his form since over further, which leaves
the impression that he’s going to be outpaced over this trip like he was at
Plumpton two runs ago (brought down at the fourth here on Boxing Day).
Lucky William: Decent hurdler in novice days and gets a
second crack at chasing having probably suffered dent in confidence when
falling (set to win on chasing debut); Has since come back in style though,
left clear at the last on return before then winning decent Grade 3; Seems well
held based on fourth here at Christmas.
Notus De La Tour: Useful hurdler (rated 141 at his peak and
second at the Cheltenham Festival) who made an excellent start to fences,
winning easily at Plumpton and Carlisle; Beaten at Exeter but trying to give
8lbs to useful chasing recruits Walkon and Zaynar before running a brave race
here, only to get gunned down late on by Blackstairmountain; Should go really
well here.
Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)
(5YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Advice: 1 pt win Blackstairmountain (13/8 general)
Baily Green: Nine length winner of maiden hurdle in March,
then readily held next time in much better company; Yet to win a chase in four
starts over fences and has 15 lengths to make up on Blackstairmountain on
latest running, so passed over. Blackstairmountain: Showed eminent promise over hurdles as a
novice, winning Grade 1 novice hurdle with plenty in hand; Never got back to
that level last year but showed enough to still be ranked as a useful horse,
and took to fences extremely well first time out when never off the bridle; Impressed
with attitude when catching Notus De La Tour latest and holds 4 of his rivals
here on that form, so the one to beat. Flemenstar: One of the most promising novice chasers seen
this season, unable to cope with Bog Warrior on debut before cantering home
next time out at Navan; Hard to work very hard for his win at Naas last time
out but did it well and should make a bold bid here; Recent rain will help his cause.Foildubh: Continued progressive form since last season (won
at Cork and Tramore) with three solid efforts over fences; Split third in Grade
2 and 1 company (both efforts see him held) with clear cut win at Navan over
fences but still seems fairly well held by that. Gift Of Dgab: Gone backwards since Febuary maiden hurdle win
(held in better company) and most of his form since over further, which leaves
the impression that he’s going to be outpaced over this trip like he was at
Plumpton two runs ago (brought down at the fourth here on Boxing Day).Lucky William: Decent hurdler in novice days and gets a
second crack at chasing having probably suffered dent in confidence when
falling (set to win on chasing debut); Has since come back in style though,
left clear at the last on return before then winning decent Grade 3; Seems well
held based on fourth here at Christmas. Notus De La Tour: Useful hurdler (rated 141 at his peak and
second at the Cheltenham Festival) who made an excellent start to fences,
winning easily at Plumpton and Carlisle; Beaten at Exeter but trying to give
8lbs to useful chasing recruits Walkon and Zaynar before running a brave race
here, only to get gunned down late on by Blackstairmountain; Should go really
well here.
VERDICT: Flemenstar is one of the most exciting prospects in
the novice chasing division this season and should go close, although the vote
goes to BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN, who holds four of today’s rivals based on his win
the equivalent event over Christmas and can be expected to take all the
beating assuming that the recent rain hasn't turned the ground into a total bog. Notus De La Tour should again be close.
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