4.25 Longchamp
Qatar Prix Dollar (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €74,373
Advice: 1 pt each/way Desert Blanc (10/1 Bet365)
Durban Thunder: Useful horse, as his form with Night Magic
shows from this season, and took advantage of easy lead in his favoured soft conditions
to turnover Famous Name; Penalty should ensure that’s turned around today and
far better race.
Cirrus Des Aigles: One of most prolific horses in training
and enjoyed two easy wins of late of his
favoured soft ground, coasting on the bit last time; This harder under penalty
but very few faults with his faster ground from, as he would have 2 Group 1
wins on quick surfaces this season had it not been for Goldikova and Sarafina;
Hard to fault.
Byword: Enjoyed a fabulous time of things last season and
seemed set for another big haul when unlucky second to Rjasman in Prix Du
Muget; Only been seen twice since, one when disappointing in D’Isphan and other
when seemingly back to something like his best in Chanitlly Group 3; Makes some
appeal.
Famous Name: Has proven as good as ever this season in
winning 4 races with ease, but easily held by So You Think in Tattersalls Gold
Cup and still cannot claim that Elusive Group 1 win after odds on defeat in
Germany; Should run well after brave effort in Irish Champion and that could be
as good as he is.
Shimraan: Given poor ride in this last year but not really
ran to that level since, having been very poor on his second last start;
Confidence boosting win should help but others readily preferred.
Saga Dream: Winner of small listed event here latest and would
have better chance than odds suggest on strict formline through Cirrus Des
Aigles but that flatters here and best to look elsewhere.
Vagabond Shoes: Got within a length of Byword at Chantilly
but that formline too might flatter him. Even though he followed it up with a
good win against Biondetti; Flat effort in Turkey suggests he’s best left.
Desert Blanc: Should be unbeaten but for horrid passage when
going for a four timer here in the Prince Du Orange; Wide draw in stall 11
again raises questions of what trip he could get, but vastly progressive and
interesting here.
French Navy: Fancied by many of the back of an easy win in
Goodwood Group 2 on second start for Mahmood Al Zarooni last time out, and
while take was indeed a taking handicap, this is far harder; Still a very
interesting contender but others preferred.
Theo Danon: Well beaten in German Derby but suspicion is
that he didn’t fancy the ground that day – He’s got no soft ground wins – and his
Group 3 win over Lindethaller is impressive form for the level, so of interest
for value seekers.
Nakayama Knight: Finished fourth of 18 in Japanese Derby on
ground that was probably softer than ideal, and maybe distance was too long for
him given his disappointing showing in the Prix Niel; Chance that’s brought him
on, and if so, he’s well overpriced.
VERDICT: Cirrus Des Aigles had the makings of a bet but 7/4 is
a touch too short now with a penalty. Byword, Famous Name and French Navy
should go well but DESERT BLANC is a fascinating contender given the nature of
his defeat last time and could be worth getting onside at 10’s. Nakyama Knight
is interesting at 28/1 although there are no excuses – fitness apart – for his
poor showing in the Niel.
No comments:
Post a Comment