Arc De Triomphe 2011

Longchamp 3.15

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner €2,288,399

Advice: 1 pt win So You Think (11/2 general) , 1pt each/way Reliable Man (12/1 general)

Workforce: Winner of this last year in heavy ground, having avoided the massive scrummaging that caught out today’s favourite Sarafina; Excuses for all defeats since impressive comeback win in Brigadier Gerard, having possibly been the less suited of the two when  he met So You Think in Coral Eclipse; Struck into himself when second In King George, having thrown race away by hanging; Major chance today if back to best; Record of those attempting to repeat in this encouraging enough to think he could take a hand.

St Nicholas Abbey: Looked set for big things at two, having shown great turn of foot to land Racing Post Trophy & recaptured that spark after disappointing period with wins in Ormonde Stakes (by 9 lengths) and Coronation Cup; Well beaten behind Hirun D’Amour and Sarafina in Foy but likely to be out of the frame with limitations exposed.

Silver Pond: Three from three last year, impressive winner of Prix Hocquart on last start; Made a highly promising comeback in the Group 3 Prix Exbury at Saint-Cloud and bounced back from poor showings to land Grand Prix De Chantilly, proving the benefit of a big weight concession and race fitness from the winner; Run to same level since but shouldn’t be winning.

Hiruno D’Amour: Showed his tactical versatility when landing the Tenno Sho over 2 miles, having take Group 2 over 10 furlongs previously; ; Strong gallop evident in that success and had break of 133 days since that run, so fact he made Sarafina work so hard for Prix Foy win is testament to his ability and big run could be coming, with great draw too.

Naykayama Festa: Was a big outsider when he burst onto the scene in the final strides of the Takarazuka Kinen to deny hot favourite Buena Vista, announcing his arrival at the top level; Surprising to see him at 33/1 given his run in this last year although his form coming into this isn’t as convincing and outside draw of 16 no help.

So You Think: Australian sensation who has shown what he’s all about with Coral Eclipse success, atoning for his controversial defeat in Prince Of Wales’s Stakes beforehand; Made to work and work hard for his win in the Irish Champions Stakes but you’d imagine that he’d improve for it (It was his first run since the Eclipse and he thrives on racing) and big chance here; Stamina a concern for some but it only cracked close home in the Melbourne Cup on holding ground (topweight) while he got past last year’s winner late on in Eclipse (strong gallop); Can go well if slotting into good position from stall 14, which is wider than ideal.

Sarafina: Emerged as best 3yo filly in France early last year and deeply unlucky in both Vermille and Arc, when coming too late on both occasions; Peerless in victory this year, especially when beating Cirrus Des Aigles with perfect timing in Grand Prix De Saint Cloud, same story when winning the Prix Foy from Hiruno D’Amour; Stall shouldn’t be a problem if she’s dropped in but getting the gaps might well be; Major chance but with risks attached.

 

Snow Fairy: Improved out of all recognition last season for step up to middle distances, completing Oaks double in empathic style before valiant second to Midday in Yorkshire Oaks; didn’t stay in Ledger but completed remarkable Hong Kong double at backend of last season, beating top class fields on both occasions; Slowly improving this year, giving So You Think a titanic battle at Leopardstown latest; Might not get the clear run that she needs today but threat if she does get gaps.

Treasure Beach: Started remarkable progression when winning Chester Vase first time out & career best when beating all but Pour Moi at Epsom; Followed that up when strong at the finish of Irish Derby and probably unsuited by going off so hard in Grand Prix De Paris, although he was second best to Meandre and Reliable Man that day; Needs more despite battling win in Secretariat Stakes and others preferred.

Meandre: Slow developer but getting act together based on last three wins, especially when making remarkable ground to win Prix L‘Avre and Grand Prix De Paris, beating pair of very solid yardsticks with Reliable Man well held in third; That form reversed in Niel pretty convincingly and while this clearly main event (stable had Virus when he ran in Niel), winner that day may be better.

Masked Marvel: Regained earlier promise shown on debut when an impressive winner of the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, easily beating a useful but limited field; Well held in Derby but right back to best when winning Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket and backed that up with great St Ledger win; Fast ground will suit while draw is also helpful, so will have his supporters elsewhere.

Reliable Man: Four wins from five starts, including the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in most taking style, having made up plenty of ground in straight; Rated so highly he was left in King George until late on but switched to Grand Prix De Paris instead, where questionable ride left him with too much ground to make up; Reversed that form in Niel and now confirmed runner despite quickening ground; Must be rated a serious contender.

Shareta: Was only having her second run when bumping into Galikova on seasonal debut, and has since improved quite a deal, gaining easy win before being third in Vermille; Likely to make pace for Galikova.

Testosterone: Has been a different filly for being ridden prominently, following up Group 3 romp with tenacious success in Prix Du Malleret, although given ,massive amount of rope; Well held by Galikova in Vermille and shouldn’t beat her in this, with masses of competition for the lead.

Danedream: Supplemented following breathtaking victory on September 4 in Germany's top race, the Grosser Preis von Baden, where she beat the 2010 winner Night Magic by six lengths in very soft ground; No forlorn hope on that effort and serious chance for some.

Galikova: Abundance of promise at 2 when once winner and fifth in Marcel Boussac (too inexperienced) & has delivered on that so far as 3yo, winning conditions contest with plenty to spare over Shareta (gave 3lbs) at Saint Cloud and devastatingly impressive when landing Prix Cleopatre with authority; Got going too late in Prix De Diane behind Golden Lilac and reversed that in convincing fashion at Deauville; Authoritve Vermille win sets her up perfectly and hard not to see her running well.

VERDICT: A race to savour, with the world’s best lining up having come from all corners of the globe. Any one of 10 could win it and it’s possible that luck in running could play a big part in the finish. Sarafina is a worthy favorite but not an unbeatable one, especially if the gaps don’t come, and the story is the same about Snow Fairy. SO YOU THINK has proven himself in the Northern Hemisphere this season and if getting a good lead and strong gallop, could be able to confirm himself the world’s best horse, with 12 furlongs not expected to be a problem given the style of his Eclipse win. Next best is RELIABLE MAN, who has won the best trial for this and appeals as a batter horse than Meandre based on his two wins over Andre Fabre’s supplemented colt.