Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp 2011

12.45 Longchamp

Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO plus)

Winner €177,570

Advice: 0.5 pt each/way Margot Did (6/1 general), Masamah (14/1), Secret Asset (40/1)

Bluster: Not won since last spring and failed to place in the Prix Du Petit Couvert three weeks ago; Hard to see him winning even in race known for boilovers.

Mar Ardentro: Improver last year and continued this season, winning small conditions contest before being headed on the line in two similar events, latest to Prohibit in Prix Du Petit Covert; Could go well but others preferred.

Prohibit: Has continued progression throughout winter in Dubai, taking valuable event by a head before respectable fifth in high class Al Quoz sprint; strong at the finish on all starts this season, mainly when landing King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot; Nunthorpe third unlucky, win here on trials day encouraging; Big chance.

Spectacle Du Mars: Steady improver since joining this yard and didn’t get a run in trial over this C&D latest, no not ruled out on that score given he has previously won Listed event at Maisons-Laffitte and handicap under top weight at Deauville, his only two previous starts at this trip.

Masamah: Impressive when blitzing opposition at York and probably in wrong place when eighth in Dash next time, as showed when once again coming late and hard to win Listed event; Explosive pace when never in danger of losing Goodwood Group 2 (weak race) and Nunthorpe disappointment forgiven; Couldn’t overturn Deacon Blues but no shame in that and chance here.

Captain Dunne: Fourth out of 6 on the unfavored side in the Nunthorpe but not run upto that form since, despite not getting a good run on next start since; Has plum draw and wouldn’t amaze to see him win, but others have more persuasive claims.

Secret Asset: Won twice over 5f this season, having chased the pace on one occasion and held up the next; No right to be pitching on form but travels well enough to hold his own and 3-6 record under George Baker; Interesting with draw to help too.

Sole Power:  Seemed to have proven that his Nunthorpe win was no fluke when a ready winner of Temple Stakes, and while he’s not been in the same form since, he can’t be written off as today he’ll have things fall his way (wants a searching gallop at this trip); Interesting for all he has something to prove now.

Tangerine Trees: Four from six over this trip in headgear, including when posting very good time in Palace House Stakes, and can get the better of a battle for the lead; Worrying that his two blowouts in Group 1 races though.

Iver Bridge Lad: Won two races in the spring (both were small field events) but nowhere to beat seen in Place House Stakes and King’s Stand Stakes; This should be too though.

Alchouhaz: Prolific sprinter in Scandinavia who has won twice in Sweden this season, but beaten at odds on last time and needs much more to land a shock here.

Beyond Desire: Found consistency this season – has come no worse than sixth on last 6 starts – but held behind Masamah on last two runs and no reason for that to change.

Wizz Kid: Speedy as a juvenile and improved for drop back to 5f to win Prix du Gros-Chene (by a head from Prohibit) at Chantilly; Unlucky to be wrong side in Nunthorpe and serious chance here from nice draw.

Margot Did: Transformed for sprinting and gained derived win in Nunthorpe, making the best of what turned out to be a good draw; Most common logic says that she won’t come out on top today but no reason why she can’t run that well again, as her profile seems very solid; Major player.

Requinto: Has impressed with raw speed on all but one start (when held up over 6f) and previously unbeaten at the minimum trip, overcoming flat spot in mid race to win Molecomb at Goodwood going away; Nunthorpe was a massive step up and feeling he wasn’t at his best, like many that week (although he was on best ground); Flying Childers win again a pointer to his toughness but others still convince more.

VERDICT: As tough a renewal as ever, with plenty of scope for a boilover (suggestion below). Being 5, British trained and from a middle draw, MASAMAH fits the profile of a typical winner and can go close here provided he breaks well and gets close to the lead. MARGOT DID is suggested as cover, given that her Nunthorpe win came after a series of good efforts and she’s not sun since, suggesting she’s being aimed at this race, while SECRET ASSET should not be as big as 50/1 on the basis of his two wins in 5f handicaps, in which he has travelled like a group horse.