Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Punchestown Festival 2011 - Ryanair Novice Chase


6.40 Punchestown
Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner €55,799

Pick: Captain Chris (win)

Captain Chris: Has been a steady improver since going over fences, coming second four times in a row before gaining deserved successes in Pendil and then Arkle Chase; Looked serious chaser on upgrade when doing so and outstanding claims here.

Osirixamix: Made a winning chasing debut with ease after fairly bolting up in a handicap hurdle; Hasn’t gotten anywhere close to that form or winning since and this likely to prove too tough.

Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and better over fences, landing pair of Irish Grade 1 races in a month before Arkle third; Yet another big pot landed when winner of Powers Gold Cup last time but essentially handed that race by fall of Noble Prince two out; Can go well here but that could have been a hard race and unlikely to reverse form with Captain Chris.

Saludos: Gained deserved success in Grade 2 event, once again leading all the way (his preferred style of running) after running below form in Irish Arkle (burst blood vessel); Had nice break since and with form to match up to most in this field, not to be underestimated (likely to get easy).

Sweeps Hill: Not matched up to his promising hurdles form over fences in three runs, suffering shock reverse on debut before coming solid second to Realt Dubh; Shaped as if something amiss when unplaced last time out, so while return to form isn’t impossible, it’s unlikely.

Cruising Katie: Good second in Mares’ listed event but that form nowhere near good enough here; Beaten long way on other starts.

VERDICT: Realt Dubh will make another big bid to land his fourth Grade 1 prize of the season, but he’s only had 11 days since his last run in the Powers Gold Cup, a race he was lucky to win. CAPTAIN CHRIS can confirm the Cheltenham form. 

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