Kentucky Derby 2011

11.42pm - Churchill Downs Race 11 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1)

3 year olds - 1 ¼ Miles - Dirt

Pick: Dialed In (win) / Main show contenders: Nehro, Soldat

Archarcharch: Taken leaps forward this year, unable to live with blinding speed of the Factor in Rebel Stakes but different story when taking advantage of ridiculous pace to win Arkansas Derby, coming from back to take lead furlong out, only just holding on from Nehro; That form gives him shot although runner up (Nehro) would have taken lead well before 10 furlongs that day and may have strong claims over this longer distance; Remains to be seen how he copes with stall number one (No winner from that position since 86’) and has a lot more on plate here.

Brilliant Speed: No wins on dirt, although they were too early in his career over a trip too short for him; Not cutting much ice on turf this season before a big closing last for first win in the Bluegrass latest; Many will doubt him on this surface, but sire is 2006 winner Barbaro (also bred to stay); That said, doubts over strength of his form.

Twice The Appeal: Available for a $30,000 maiden claiming tag in late December, couldn’t win the Turf Paradise Derby two starts back and finished slowly when springing a 25-1 upset in the Sunland Derby; May owe price to similarities to 2009 winner Mine That Bird, and fact that Calvin Borel (winner of three of the last 4 Derbies) rides; Not even sure stayer however and impossible to fancy.

Stay Thirsty: Showed potential as two year old when he an away with a maiden at Saratoga before an excellent effort when second in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga; Disappointment in Juvenile here, but looked on way back when winning Gotham Stakes in good style; Flopped in Florida Derby latest but if forgiven that, has a live outsider’s shot and promises to be suited by leaders overdoing it.

Decisive Moment: Wired his at Delta Downs in January and has failed to last in better company since, being given the lead but still finishing well behind Santiva and Mucho Macho Man; Seemed to last better on Polytrack when second behind Animal Kingdom but still expected to be beaten again.

Comma To The Top: All class as a juvenile when he learned his job, winning Generous Stakes before an excellent display in Futurity; Not been in same form as three year old, unable to dominate speed duels the first twice before still falling to Midnight Interlude(despite soft lead) in Sanita Anita Derby; Unlikely to play leading role here.

Pants On Fire: Suffered rubbish trip when a well beaten sixth behind Much Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes, and impressed when using tactical early speed to hold better position when reversing form in Louisiana Derby latest; Can go well again, although Derby debutant Rosie Napravink will have to watch her early speed to save energy for the straight.

Dialed In: Showed promise when winning a maiden special weight on debut here; Has exploded onto Derby scene since, turning many with impressive last-to-first run in Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, atoning for odds on Allowance defeat (beaten by older horse, slow fractions) with dramatic win in Florida Derby at same track since; Possible that he may be at mercy of getting a clear trip with his running style, but leaders may well overdo it and extra furlong will be great help to him; One of strongest claims in field and one to beat.

Derby Kitten: Earned his shot when he recorded a last-to-first victory in final recognised Kentucky Derby trial (Lexington Stakes), sweeping past Prime Cut for a length-and-a-half victory; Strong stayer at least and bred to go on dirt (half brother to smart performer on this surface), so can’t be just thrown out even though might be best to look elsewhere.

Twinspired: Only one of pace horses to contest finish at Bluegrass, although still rather convincingly caught by Brilliant Speed; This race much less conducive to that style of running, longer trip won’t help and while improving at right time, presumably not good enough to last home fully.

Master Of Hounds: Appeared not to go round the first turn so well after slow start in Breeders Cup Juvenile turn (ran wide) and widest of all into home straight; Safe to say that not his true running, and seemingly improved when earning his shot when close second (nose) in UAE Derby; Has dirt in progeny (sire had Belmont Stakes winner) and while untried on surface, same problem with many in field; May be vulnerable if too close to pace but can only improve for strong fractions and not to be underestimated.

Santiva: Not been able to show best this year (wide trip in Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man, and completely cut up in Blue Grass Stakes); Best form makes him interesting, and can be seen at the finish (not an overly prominent racer, but not reliant on good trip as much as others; Intriguing.

Mucho Macho Man: Overdid it in speed duel with 4 others when fourth behind Dialed In (well beaten) in Holly Bull Stakes first time up; Able to show true worth when game winner of Risen Star Stakes, and while doubts over some of that form (closely matched) needs considering on that; Seemed to have no answer to Pants On Fire and Nehro latest but did lose a shoe early; That said, may struggle to uphold form with those two.

Schalkeford: Much of form questionable (has his excuses), so may pay to rate him on his latest form, a head second to Dialed In; Ran with no breathers that day off fast pace so effort even more notable, but was always getting caught at line, has company in better race today, and unlucky to do same over this extra trip.

Midnight Interlude: Only had the four runs (unraced as juvenile) but making big progress, wiring field at Sanita Anita before quickening well despite modest pace in Sanita Anita Derby, winning with relative comfort despite having to be switched rwde; Will improve for extra furlong, stable in form and can go close.

Animal Kingdom: Big improver for experience, and quietly fancied by quite a few; beat Decisive Moment and Twinspired on the polytrack at Turfway in the manner of a smart horse latest, and not a reach to think he can go as well on dirt (suggested he could do so when he turned in a sharp six-furlong workout over a fast track last week); Not one to ignore.

Soldat: Has right to be one of favourites if last run is ignored (Florida Derby); Clocked a quick time when winning allowance race on debut and once again led when taking Fountain Of Youth in easy style; Assuming last run just a blip, one of main players and could take some beating.

Nehro: Probably the fastest improving horse in the field; Posted massive deep stretch efforts the last twice, unlucky not to catch Pants On Fire in Louisiana Derby, and coming just too late when second to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby latest; Will almost certainly be suited by extra furlong here, and while stall 19 problematic in eyes of some, he will be allowed to drop in easily and likely to be thundering down deep stretch.

Watch Me Go: Surprise winner of Tampa Bay Derby (form didn’t work out and looked rather suspect beforehand) and unable to back that up when dropped in Grade; Tends to chase the leaders so how he’s going to sustain stamina over this trip from stall 20 is nobody’s idea.

VERDICT: At the time of writing, the rain has passed Louisville so we’ll have a fast track, and as usual we’ll have a blistering pace. With many of the front runners not looking upto the usual standard, late runners could have a field day and where better to start than DIALED IN, who was so impressive in the Florida Derby and promises to go close with a clear trip. It's notable that There are many threats but Nehro may be the main one, as it looks likely that he’d have beaten Pants On Fire and Archarcharch with a clear trip the last twice. All three horses mentioned there can run well while Midnight Interlude will make a bold bid to become the first non – raced juvenile to win this since 1986. Ignore Soldat & Master Of Hounds at your peril, while Shackleford could do best of the pacesetters.